A GIS/Simulation Framework for Assessing Change in Water Yield over Large Spatial Scales

Recent legislation to initiate vegetation management in the Central Sierra hydrologic region of California includes a focus on corresponding changes in water yield. This served as the impetus for developing a combined geographic information system (GIS) and simulation assessment framework. Using the existing vegetation density condition, together with proposed rules for thinning to reduce fire risk, a set of simulation model inputs were generated for examining the impact of the thinning scenario on water yield. The approach allows results to be expressed as the mean and standard deviation of change in water yield for each 1-km² map cell that is thinned. Values for groups of cells are aggregated for typical watershed units using area-weighted averaging. Wet, dry, and average precipitation years were simulated over a large region. Where snow plays an important role in hydrologic processes, the simulated change in water yield was less than 0.5% of expected annual runoff for a typical watershed. Such small changes would be undetectable in the field using conventional stream flow analysis. These results suggest that use of water yield increases to help justify forest-thinning activities or offset their cost will be difficult.     

某地下大型商业建筑防火分隔方案设计和评估

针对某地下大型商业建筑消防设计在防火分隔方面存在的问题,分析几种常用防火分隔方法的适用性,初步设计几种防火分隔替代方案.采用建筑防火性能化设计思想,分析替代方案所应达到的安全目标,利用火灾动力学模拟软件FDS评估这些方案的分隔效果,给出火灾时防火卷帘迎火面和背火面的温度发展曲线.数值模拟结果表明防火分隔方案3能够达到防火墙的分隔效果,满足该建筑的消防安全要求.     

事故致因理论的比较分析

本文对事故致因理论进行了总结并对其优缺点进行了介绍,对一些主要的事故致因理论进行了比较,分析了其异同,提出了各自的特点和适用条件,并对其理论发展前景进行了展望。运用事故致因理论对具体事故案例进行了分析,找出了事故原因,提出了预防措施。     

Newspaper response to flood and erosion hazards on the North Lake Erie shore

The study is primarily concerned with newspaper responses to flooding and erosion associated with Great Lakes high water in 1952–1953 and 1972–1974. Underlying the research is a general interest in informing the public more widely on choices available in resource and environmental decision making.     

乌鲁木齐市燃煤点源现状分析

对乌鲁木齐市燃煤点派数量、耗煤量、污染物的排放量以及在各功能区的分布分别进行了统计分析，对污染物的排放量在不同高度空间的分布也进行了统计分析，从而得出了确切的结论并提出了相应的建议。     

G2京津塘高速公路万辆车流的交通事故灾害与气象综合指数的关系

通过整理G2京津塘高速公路3年(2007年3月至2010年2月)逐日逐时万辆车流的交通事故灾害和交通流量及气象要素资料,并将万辆车流的交通事故灾害(交通事故灾害与交通流量之商)与同步气象综合指数进行日变化相关分析；结果表明:平均万辆车流的交通事故灾害的日变化最高峰出现在05时,年平均高峰值高达2.34起·辆-1·10-4；年度、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的平均万辆车流的交通事故灾害与同步气象综合指数均呈正抛物线的偏右侧相关,即万辆车流的交通事故灾害随气象综合指数的加大而增多；统计学检验(R＞Rα=0.01和F＞Fa=0.01)效果很好.四个季节的万辆车流的交通事故灾害与气象综合指数相关的系数高达0.7781～0.8537.为了更好地将自动气象监测信息服务于高速公路交通安全,在分析成果的基础上设计出了高速公路万辆车流的交通事故灾害的气象综合指数风险等级指标,以期为高速公路交通安全提供客观的科学依据.     

广东南部电白小良试验站4种森林群落结构的对比研究

通过对小良试验站不同类型、不同林龄的３种人工林群落（群落Ｂ：桉林；群落Ｃ：松桉混交林；群落Ｄ：阔叶混交林）与当地自然次生热带季雨林（乡土林）相比较，从群落结构的角度探讨人工恢复热带森林的可行性．结果表明：从桉林到松桉混交林到阔叶混交林，３种人工林群落的组成结构和空间结构向着复杂性和稳定性方向发展，并逐渐向地带性自然次生林方向演替；群落的相似性研究也表明，阔叶混交林是３种人工林中与乡土林最为相似．因此，对于极度退化的热带丘陵台地区，在一定工程和生物措施基础上，用先锋绿化树种造林成功后，及时用多层多种的阔叶混交林改造原有先锋林，可以加速人工林向地带性植被类型演替．     

Economic assessment of managing processionary moth in pine forests: a case-study in Portugal

This paper assesses the private and social profitability of current strategies for managing processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) in Portuguese pine forests, looking at economic and environmental costs and benefits. Costs include the expenses for forest treatment and the social costs of threats to human health (dermatitis amongst others); benefits are assessed in terms of both revenue and social benefits such as carbon fixation and recreation. The evaluation was done using Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) as an analytical framework. While this tool is currently applied to forest and environmental assessment and specific applications to pest management strategies are to be found in agricultural economics, rather few attempts have been made in the field of forest pest management. In order to assess and compare with--without options, a case-study was analysed for the Setúbal Peninsula, south of Lisbon, an area where extensive stands of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) grow. The exercise has shown that CBA can be a valuable tool for assessing the economic and social profitability of pest management. The results demonstrate that the loss of revenues in the no-management option is not sufficient to make pest management profitable for private forest owners in the short-term. Conversely, a social profit is gained as pest management minimizes health risks for humans and avoids possible recreational losses.     

焦化苯初馏份蒸馏釜发生爆炸的原因探讨

通过对某企业的一起典型爆炸事故案例进行分析,找出其产生的原因,提出了预防措施。     

A model for estimating the potential biomagnification of chemicals in a generic food web: Preliminary development

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Bioaccumulation and biomagnification of organic pollutants have been increasingly assessed and modeled during the last years. Due to the complexity of these processes and the large variability of food webs, setting generic assessments for these parameters is really difficult. Equilibrium models, based on a compound's lipophylicity, are the main tool in regulatory proposals, such as for identifying Persistent, Bioaccumulative and Toxic Substances (PBTs), although a refinement has been claimed by the scientific community. Toxicokinetic studies offer an alternative for these estimations, where biomagnification is modeled as a succession of bioaccumulation processes, each one regulated by toxicokinetic parameters. METHODS: A review of kinetic models covering species belonging to different trophic levels and with different ecological behavior has been conducted. The results were employed for setting a conceptual model for estimating the biomagnification potential in a generic food web, which was mathematically implemented through system dynamic models developed under data sheet software. Crystal Ball was then employed for allowing Monte Carlo based probabilistic calculations. Bioaccumulation laboratory assays have been performed to estimate toxicokinetic parameters in mussels (Mytilus edulis) with two PAHs (chrysene and benzo[a]pyrene). The contamination was delivered via food. The exposure period lasted more than one month followed then by a depuration phase. The contaminant content was determined on an individual basis on five replicates. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION:. The reviewed information suggested the development of a tiered conceptual biomagnification model, starting with a simplified food chain which can be refined to more realistic and complex models in successive levels. CONCLUSIONS: The mathematical implementation of the conceptual model offers tools for estimating the potential for bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemicals under very different conditions. The versatility of the model can be used for both comparative estimations and for validating the model. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Since bioaccumulation and biomagnification processes are crucial elements for a proper risk assessment of chemicals, their estimation by mathematical models has been widely tested. However, inregulatory assessments, too simplistic models are still being used quite often. The biomagnification model presented in this study should be amore accurate alternative to these models. In comparison to other previously published biomagnification models, the present one covers the time variation of bioaccumulation using just a few toxicokinetic parameters.