A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

重量法测定含动、植物油和矿物油废水应注意的问题

废水监测中，用重量法测定污（废）水中的动、植物油和矿物油是常用方法之一。为了保证测试结果的准确性，减少误差，提高分析测试质量，作者以多年的实践经验结合塔里木油田采油厂生产污水和餐饮行业生活废水的测定，对测定两种不同含油类废水应注意的问题进行探讨。供同行在实际工作中参考。     

DESIGN OF AN INDEX OF WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the formulation of an Index of Water Quality to evaluate the level of pollution in fresh water. A Four-Round Delphi equation, using a panel of seven nationally recognized water scientists, was performed to ascertain the pollutants to be included in the index, the relationship between the quantity of these pollutants in the water and the resulting quality of the water, and the importance of each pollution variable to each water use as well as to overall pollution. A multiplicative index was used to bring the pollutants together into one system.     

卫星遥感技术在管理长江流域水资源方面的应用研究

详细讨论了卫星遥感技术在长江流域水资源管理方面的应用问题，提出了两种实用的方法：①卫星遥感技术在灌溉水资源管理方面的应用；②长江流域地下水、地表水资源估算。进一步分析了两种方法的特点，介绍了卫星遥感技术的优点及用途，建议在长江流域水资源管理中加以利用。     

Sustainability: a Dissent

Abstract:  Broadly conceived and considered in its many usages, sustainability has grave defects as a planning goal, particularly when used by conservationists: it confuses means and ends; it is vague about what is being sustained and who or what is doing the sustaining; it is uninspiring; it is little more than Pinchot-era conservation (and thus ignores the many lessons learned since then); it need not be linked to land, to the land's functioning, or to any ecological science; it need not include a moral component; it is consistent with the view of humans as all-powerful manipulators of the planet; and, in general, it is such a malleable term that its popularity provides only a facade of consensus. When sustainability is defined broadly to include the full range of economic and social aspirations, it poses the particular risk that ecological and biodiversity concerns will be cast aside in favor of more pressing human wants. Given these many defects, the conservation movement should discard the term in favor of a more alluring goal, attentive to nature and its ecological functioning. A sound goal would incorporate and distill the considerable ecological and moral wisdom accumulated since Pinchot's day while giving conservationists the rhetorical tools needed to defend the land against competing pressures. In our view, conservation would be well served by an updated variant of "land health," Aldo Leopold's ecologically grounded goal from the 1940s. Land health as an independent understanding should set the essential terms of how we live and enjoy the earth, providing the framework within which we pursue our many social and economic aims.     

区域排污权交易模型研究

本文在分析了排污权交易研究进展的基础上，指出区域污染权交易比传统的排污权交易意义更大，并提出排污权交易地区交叉补贴的设想：将发达地区的排污权交易所得向欠发达地区转移，以解决欠发达地区产业结构调整乏力以及对发达地区的二次污染和发达地区环境容量资源短缺问题。在不考虑交易成本的假设下，通过建立不同地区排污权交易模型以确定排污权交易总量及其交易价格以及交易所获净增纯收益等。太湖流域由于经济最为发达，环境问题十分突出，是目前我国最适宜率先进行区域排污权交易试点的地区。通过假定太湖流域无锡和常州两市进行排污权交易，并利用两市1991—2000年的环境统计资料等相关资料进行了验证。计算结果表明区域排污权交易不仅具有明显的经济和环境效益，而且也是协调环境区域矛盾的重要手段。因此，不同地区间进行排污权交易在我国具有重要意义，在太湖流域等经济发达地区收效尤其明显。     

Analysis of Environmental and Socio-economic Determinants Affecting Population Longevity Level at County Level in China

INTRODUCTIONIn recent thirty years, due to the decreasing fertility andincreasing life expectancy, China's population is aging ata very rapid pace and the elderly population size is keepingon growing. During the dramatic aging progress, the oldestold group in China is catching our eyes. More and moreold people of China are becoming the oldest old. Theextremely old population (aged 80 and above) is increasingat 5.1% annually, while the old population above 65 isincreasing at 2.9%, and the…     

黄河三角洲土地质量模糊综合评价

针对土地复杂性、模糊性的特征,本文采用模糊数学中“多级模糊综合评判”的方法进行了黄河三角洲土地质量评价,并对其科学性和可行性作了探讨。     

省以下生态转移支付制度环境保护激励效应

现有文献认为生态转移支付具有基本公共服务均等化与提升地方生态环境质量双目标,而目标的多样性会影响地方财政转移支付资金效果及目标的实现。文章基于环保支出和农林水支出的中介与调节效应,对生态转移支付的生态环境目标进行了理论分析,利用2010—2018年甘肃、贵州、湖北及河南四省的199个县的面板数据进行实证检验。实证研究表明:在样本期内,生态转移支付促进了地方生态环境质量的提升,中介效应和调节效应模型的结果表明,中国地方生态转移支付资金对辖区环境保护效果中,环境保护支出起到部分中介效应,农林水支出不仅调节了生态转移支付的地方环境保护支出效果,而且调节了环境保护支出对地方环境质量的影响。因此,由于地方政府具有环境治理信息优势,省以下制度目标更能体现辖区生态需求,省对县生态转移支付制度会有效促进地方生态环境质量的改善,环保激励效应较为明显。同时,县级地方政府应该逐步摆脱"先污染后治理"的路径依赖,逐步转向经济与环境"双目标协同发展"模式。为了协同生态转移支付的双目标,"自下而上参与式决策"可以作为环境治理的有益补充,通过地方政府多元化实践改善环境质量。     

新疆石化工业区颗粒物含水量和酸度对二次无机组分形成的影响

大气二次污染物是新疆独山子区大气污染物的重要组成部分,研究大气中二次组分的转化过程对区域大气污染治理有着重要意义.对新疆独山子区2015年9月至2016年7月采集到的样品进行水溶性组分分析.结果表明,水溶性无机离子(TWSIs)表现出与PM_(2.5)一致的季节变化,为冬季(67.86μg·m~(-3))秋季(13.77μg·m~(-3))春季(10.09μg·m~(-3))夏季(4.85μg·m~(-3));冬季二次无机离子(NH~+_4、SO~(2-)_4和NO~-_3)占TWSIs的98%;结合气溶胶热力学模型(E-AIM)探讨独山子区大气颗粒污染物中颗粒相含水量以及颗粒酸碱性;表明独山子区颗粒物呈酸性,年均原位pH为0.81,其中冬季样品的pH(2.93)值最高;颗粒含水季节变化为冬季(331.32μg·m~(-3))秋季(5.91μg·m~(-3))春季(5.46μg·m~(-3))夏季(1.62μg·m~(-3));年均氮氧化率(NOR)和硫氧化率(SOR)分别为0.13和0.47,表明区域污染物存在二次转化;进一步分析表明颗粒相中的硫酸盐质量浓度受到颗粒含水量和颗粒酸碱度的影响较为明显;高的颗粒相含水条件下区域硝酸盐的形成主要以非均相反应为主.