Information Network Topologies for Enhanced Local Adaptive Management

We examined the principal effects of different information network topologies for local adaptive management of natural resources. We used computerized agents with adaptive decision algorithms with the following three fundamental constraints: (1) Complete understanding of the processes maintaining the natural resource can never be achieved, (2) agents can only learn by experimentation and information sharing, and (3) memory is limited. The agents were given the task to manage a system that had two states: one that provided high utility returns (desired) and one that provided low returns (undesired). In addition, the threshold between the states was close to the optimal return of the desired state. We found that networks of low to moderate link densities significantly increased the resilience of the utility returns. Networks of high link densities contributed to highly synchronized behavior among the agents, which caused occasional large-scale ecological crises between periods of stable and high utility returns. A constructed network involving a small set of experimenting agents was capable of combining high utility returns with high resilience, conforming to theories underlying the concept of adaptive comanagement. We conclude that (1) the ability to manage for resilience (i.e., to stay clear of the threshold leading to the undesired state as well as the ability to re-enter the desired state following a collapse) resides in the network structure and (2) in a coupled social–ecological system, the systemwide state transition occurs not because the ecological system flips into the undesired state, but because managers lose their capacity to reorganize back to the desired state. An erratum to this article can be found at .     

煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程仿真研究

煤矿发生火灾后会生成大量有毒气体并产生火风压,烟气在火灾动力的影响下出现状态紊乱,研究煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程对控制火情有着重要意义。基于国内外研究现状,对燃烧及风流特点进行分析,建立了煤矿火灾烟气流动数学模型,并利用CFD软件进行仿真。研究表明:无通风工况下的烟气为对称流动;随着风速增加,出口处温度降低,烟气向风流入口处的流速减小。     

Performance evaluation of reverse logistics enterprise – an agent-based simulation approach

Reverse logistics (RL) has been applied in many industries and sectors since its conception. Unlike forward logistics, retracing consumer goods from the point of consumption to the point of inception is not a well-studied process. It involves many uncertainties such as time, quality and quantity of returns. The returned products can be remanufactured, have parts harvested, or be disposed safely. It is important to implement these activities in a cost-effective manner. The aim of this research is to measure the performance of the RL enterprise with the help of an agent-based simulation model. The major entities in the RL network are considered as Agents that can act independently. There are several different agents: collector agent, sorting-cum-reuse agent, remanufacturing agent, recycler agent, supplier agent and distributor agent. The individual performances of the agents are measured and recommendations are given to improve their performance, leading to the enhancement of the total performance of the RL enterprise. The approach is applied to a case study involving cell phone remanufacturing.     

经口摄入土壤多溴联苯醚生物可给性变化及影响因素的体外消化模拟

误食土壤是污染物(如多溴联苯醚)人体(主要是儿童)暴露的重要途径,人体消化道内污染物吸收的生物可给性是针对此种暴露方式进行定量风险评估的有效途径之一.本研究采用体外消化实验模拟3种不同有机碳含量的天然土壤中典型多溴联苯醚(BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153)在胃和小肠消化液中的释放,验证部分消化释放的多溴联苯醚因消化残留固相表面的再吸附造成低估实际生物可给性,并通过不同水土比的拟合计算予以校正.结果表明,校正后的消化率普遍高于校正前;就不同土样而言,BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153在不同初始暴露浓度条件下平均提升比例范围分别为14.3%~42.3%、11.1%~32.1%、4.9%~12.3%和0.0%~7.7%.因此,未经校正的消化率会显著低估PBDEs消化道内的生物可给性,尤其是低溴代组分及PBDEs初始浓度较高或高TOC含量的土样.校正后BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153的消化率分别维持在21.9%~54.7%、18.8%~43.1%、13.4%~27.2%和9.3%~19.9%.此外,PBDEs的消化率与其辛醇-水分配系数的对数lg KOW呈显著负相关;而与土壤TOC含量及PBDEs初始暴露浓度的相关性并不显著,尤其是高溴代组分.     

Mitigation of eutrophication caused by wastewater discharge: A simulation-based approach

Mitigation of eutrophication, intensified by excessive nutrient load discharge in wastewaters regulated by restrictive legal requirements, remains one of today’s most important global problems. Despite implementation of the Water Framework Directive, the Urban Wastewater Directive and the HELCOM recommendations, the actual condition of surface water is still not satisfactory. In response to the above, the study presents an alternative approach for surface water protection against eutrophication based on the selection of appropriate nutrient removal technologies. An activated sludge model simulation was used to enable the identification of environmentally justified nutrient removal systems with lowest eutrophication potential of treated wastewater conditioned by bioavailable nutrient forms content. Based on the outcome of the study, the 3-stage Bardenpho system was identified as the most efficient for bioavailable phosphorus removal, while the Johannesburg system proved to have the highest efficiency for bioavailable nitrogen removal. The proposed eutrophication mitigation approach underlines the need for a reconsideration of current legal regulations which ignore nutrient bioavailability and key eutrophication limiting factors.     

AAO工艺低氧条件下的运行及其模拟

利用厌氧-缺氧-好氧(AAO)工艺探讨了在好氧池低溶解氧(DO)浓度条件下的水质指标变化情况.结果表明,当好氧池DO浓度从2.00 mg·L~(-1)降低到1.00 mg·L~(-1)和0.50 mg·L~(-1)时,系统仍然具有良好的除磷脱氮效果,出水水质指标均满足我国《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》(GB 18918-2002)中的一级A标准.在此基础上,基于Bio Win 4.1软件建立了AAO工艺的活性污泥模型,对模型参数进行了灵敏度分析,并利用动态模拟对模型参数中的聚磷菌吸收乙酸或丙酸的聚羟基烷酸(PHA)产率系数(YP/PHA,seq)、聚磷菌好氧氧化PHA的储磷率(YP/PHA,aerobic)、氨氧化菌的最大单位生长速率(μmax,A)和亚硝酸盐氧化菌的最大单位生长速率(μmax,N)进行了校验.此外,对系统的曝气能耗进行了模拟评估,结果表明,与好氧池DO浓度为2.00 mg·L~(-1)时相比,好氧池DO浓度为1.00 mg·L~(-1)和0.50 mg·L~(-1)时的空气流量可分别节省23.8%和38.1%,氧转移效率可分别提高7.2%和11.7%.     

燃煤电厂烟塔合一排烟风洞试验与数值模拟对比分析

近年来,燃煤电厂烟塔合一烟气排烟对近距离环境影响的不确定性,使其在国内的推广过程受到一定限制。准确判断烟塔合一排烟的环境影响,对于我国现有燃煤电厂烟气污染物的排放有着巨大的工程价值和明显的现实意义。利用国家环境保护某重点实验室中风洞试验平台,对燃煤电厂烟塔合一烟气污染物在近距离的扩散和传输行为,进行物理风洞试验以及数值模拟计算,并进行对比分析。结果表明:德国Austal2000模式的浓度预测并不精确;数值风洞也有其差异性,而物理风洞的结果在很大程度上符合现有的理论及国内工程实际。     

多相流中细长颗粒数值模拟研究综述

纤维干燥尾气中的飞灰含有大量的木质纤维、砂光粉和其他粉尘。从形状来看,木质纤维属细长颗粒,和研究较为成熟的球形颗粒在许多方面存在较多差异。目前,国内外学者们已对细长颗粒在多相流中的悬浮、沉降及流化方面开展了大量数值模拟研究,取得了一定的进展;在此基础上,继续完善木质纤维的运动特征、推导出其在换热器表面的碰撞沉积模型是下一步的主要工作。     

深部储层中CO2沿断层泄漏量的影响因素

CGS（CO₂地质储存）是CO₂减排的重要手段之一,天然裂隙的存在则是CGS的潜在风险.CO₂地质储存过程中储层上覆盖层及其浅部含水层是防止CO₂泄漏的天然屏障,为了探究深部咸水层中CO₂沿断层的泄漏过程并获得断层渗透率及储层中超临界CO₂流体初始条件（初始饱和度、初始泄漏压力）对CO₂沿断层泄漏速率和泄漏量的影响程度,依据鄂尔多斯CO₂灌注工程示范区资料,使用多相、多组分溶质运移数值模拟软件TOUGH2建立了2D概念模型.结果表明,深部咸水层中的CO₂在压力差和浓度差的作用下沿断层发生泄漏,到达浅部含水层后开始发生侧向运移,100 a内运移了约200 m的水平距离;由于浮力的作用,CO₂集中在含水层顶板处,有效地防止了CO₂向外泄漏.影响因素分析表明,100 a内断层渗透性能为低渗、中渗和高渗条件时,CO₂累积泄漏量分别为0、1 050和3 000 t;CO₂初始饱和度分别为0.20、0.50和0.99时,CO₂累积泄漏量分别为550、1 050和1 650 t;初始泄漏压力分别为17.3、17.6和18.1 MPa时,CO₂累积泄漏量则分别为900、1 050和1 400 t.除此之外,断层渗透性、CO₂初始气体饱和度和初始泄漏压力对CO₂泄漏的影响还体现在泄漏发生时间和平均泄漏速率上.研究显示,各因素对CO₂沿断层泄漏过程的影响程度表现为断层渗透性能> CO₂初始饱和度> CO₂初始泄漏压力.      

基于蒙特卡罗模拟的土壤环境健康风险评价:以PAHs为例

为获得更为合理的健康风险评价结果,并辨识对健康风险影响最大的因素,基于蒙特卡罗随机模拟,运用概率风险评价模型,定量评估了中国上海某居民区土壤中16种PAHs对居民的健康风险水平,并对各参数进行敏感性分析.结果表明,土壤中PAHs造成的健康风险服从对数正态分布,总的致癌风险为3.43×10~(-5)±2.63×10~(-5),最小值为8.10×10~(-7),最大值为2.39×10~(-4),超过10-6的概率为95%,超过10~(-5)的概率为75%,超过10~(-4)的概率小于5%;总的危害商为4.74×10~(-2)±3.42×10~(-2),不超过1,风险较小;在7种具有致癌效应的PAHs中,苯并(a)芘、二苯并(a,h)蒽和苯并(a)蒽是总致癌风险的主要贡献物质,贡献率分别占60.41%、26.84%和6.56%;3种暴露途径中,经口途径是造成致癌风险的主要途径,贡献率为73.22%;对于总致癌风险,人体暴露参数中每日土壤摄入量、暴露周期、暴露皮肤面积敏感度较大,分别为58.35%、50.21%和20.51%;体重具有负敏感性,敏感度为-11.66%.