Way for sustainable development of energy in China

The report of Chinese Communist Party's 18th National Congress clearly stated that the construction of ecological civilization needs to join hands with the overall layout of the construction of socialism with Chinese characteristics,and the greatest obstacle to achieving ecological civilization is the energy structure in China.Currently,the third industrial revolution—marked by green technology and cloud computing technology—is happening,and it will have a huge impact on future energy development.The fundamental way to solve the problem of energy resource constraints is developing the renewable energy,and the fundamental approach for renewable energy is developing distributed energy and services.The important factors to achieving China's energy production and consumption revolution are accelerating the construction of distributed energy system and overall energy structure adjustment in China.     

乌江下游德江县喀斯特石漠化及其防治

基于TM影像解释和实地考察,查清了德江县石漠化面积为70 693 hm~2、占全县土地总面积的34．1％,划分了石漠化强度(中度以上的石漠化面积占全县总面积的16．6％),明确了德江县石漠化的空间分布格局;分析了德江石漠化的危害;从地形地貌、岩性、降水、耕种方式等方面探讨了石漠化的成因,最后提出了德江县石漠化综合防治对策。     

分布式光纤火灾探测系统敷设间距研究

通过开展真实火灾实验和数值模拟研究,考察隧道内温度变化情况,对比分析不同高度的分布式感温光纤对温升或温差的响应规律,进一步研究光纤敷设间隔与隧道高度的关系。结果表明,光纤敷设的最大间隔应随着隧道高度的增加而逐渐减小。最后,对照国内各地方标准及其他国家的标准规定,得到不同敷设高度感温光纤对应的最优光纤敷设间距。该研究结果对分布式光纤火灾探测系统的实际应用有一定指导作用。     

The implications of ecosystem dynamics for fisheries management: a case study of selected fisheries in the Gulf of Paria, Trinidad

It is accepted that if fisheries resources are to remain renewable and able to sustain livelihoods, appropriate management practices must be implemented. Even while fisheries management grapples to resolve single-species issues, the biological and economic interactions among species mandate that to be effective, management techniques must be based on more interactive and aggregate-level analyses. In order to implement these techniques, the actual links, and the potential impact of these links, among the fisheries must be established. Vector autoregression (VAR) analysis has the potential to play an increasingly important role in ecosystem modelling for fisheries management. This study uses VAR analysis to demonstrate the quantitative impact of certain ecosystem changes on the productivity of the carite, honey shrimp and croaker fisheries of the Gulf of Paria, Trinidad, in the particular context of the ecosystem dynamics of trophic linkages, bycatch and multispecies fisheries. Four VAR models are constructed to investigate the extent to which these factors affect the production of the selected fisheries, and to evaluate the management implications of these linkages. The empirical analysis is further evidence that, if sustainable management of fishery resources is to be achieved, management practices based on more multi-species, ecosystem approaches must replace the traditional, single-species management techniques.     

A GIS‐ASSISTED DISTRIBUTED WATERSHED MODEL FOR SIMULATING FLOODING AND INUNDATION1

ABSTRACT: A distributed watershed model combining kinematic wave routing, 1‐D dynamic channel‐flow routing, and 2‐D diffusive overland‐flow routing has been developed to simulate flooding and inundation levels of large watersheds. The study watershed was linked to a GIS database and was divided into an upstream mountainous area and a downstream alluvial plain. A kinematic wave routing was adopted at the mountainous area to compute the discharge flowing into the alluvial plain. A 1‐D dynamic channel routing solving the St. Venant equations by the Preissmann method was performed for the main channel of the alluvial plain, whereas a 2‐D overland‐flow routing solving the diffusion wave equation with the Alternating Direction Explicit scheme was used for floodplains. The above two routings were connected by weir‐link discharge formula. The parameters in the model were calibrated and independently verified by single‐event storms. An example application of flooding/inundation analysis was conducted for the Taichung station and the Woozi depot (Taiwan High Speed Rail). Suggested inundation‐proofing measures ‐ including raising ground surface elevation of the station and depot and building a waterproofing exterior wall and their combination ‐ were investigated. It was concluded that building the waterproofing exterior wall had a strong tendency to decrease peak inundation depth.     

流域土地利用变化的水生态响应研究

流域土地利用变化造成水体物理、化学条件变化,并对诸多水生生物产生影响,进而破坏水系的生态系统结构和功能.研究显示:① 流域土地利用变化将引起水文、底质、生境改变等物理响应,以及水体营养盐、细菌、有毒有害物含量、溶解氧变化等化学响应,分布式水文模型成为研究物理和化学响应的重要工具;② 流域土地利用变化的生物响应表现为水生生物与自然用地类型呈正相关,而与农业用地、城镇用地呈负相关,并且存在明显的尺度效应,统计学分析是主要的研究方法;③ 大尺度的土地利用变化在水文过程下造成河段尺度上的外源物质输入、水文条件、底质结构等物理化学因子变化,是影响水生生物生境的直接原因.存在主要问题:① 流域土地利用变化的生物响应关系机制尚不明晰;② 流域土地利用变化的生物响应是通过物理响应、化学响应来间接作用的,但三者之间的非线性关系十分复杂;③ 水生生物对环境因子变化的敏感性和适用性存在较大差异.因此,未来研究应关注流域水文过程驱动下的物质迁移转化过程及由此带来的物理、化学和生物响应以及三者之间的关系,加强流域水文规律总结和参数率定,构建符合流域特征的参数数据库,并着力构建以保护水生态系统结构与功能为核心的流域山水林田湖系统综合管控模式.      

船舶感烟探测器探测时间与布置间距近似计算

为计算船舶感烟探测器的探测时间和布置间距,在现有感烟探测器迟滞现象研究成果基础上,根据临界速度法,建立感烟探测器探测时间计算模型,提出探测器布置间距的近似计算方法.计算结果表明,对于平整顶棚,感烟探测器探测时间随着布置间距的增大呈线性增大,而对于走廊(或下有横梁的顶棚),当探测间距大于走廊宽度时,在规范规定的最大间距范...     

Dynamic floodplain vegetation model development for the Kootenai River, USA

The Kootenai River floodplain in Idaho, USA, is nearly disconnected from its main channel due to levee construction and the operation of Libby Dam since 1972. The decreases in flood frequency and magnitude combined with the river modification have changed the physical processes and the dynamics of floodplain vegetation. This research describes the concept, methodologies and simulated results of the rule-based dynamic floodplain vegetation model "CASiMiR-vegetation" that is used to simulate the effect of hydrological alteration on vegetation dynamics. The vegetation dynamics are simulated based on existing theory but adapted to observed field data on the Kootenai River. The model simulates the changing vegetation patterns on an annual basis from an initial condition based on spatially distributed physical parameters such as shear stress, flood duration and height-over-base flow level. The model was calibrated and the robustness of the model was analyzed. The hydrodynamic (HD) models were used to simulate relevant physical processes representing historic, pre-dam, and post-dam conditions from different representative hydrographs. The general concept of the vegetation model is that a vegetation community will be recycled if the magnitude of a relevant physical parameter is greater than the threshold value for specific vegetation; otherwise, succession will take place toward maturation stage. The overall accuracy and agreement Kappa between simulated and field observed maps were low considering individual vegetation types in both calibration and validation areas. Overall accuracy (42% and 58%) and agreement between maps (0.18 and 0.27) increased notably when individual vegetation types were merged into vegetation phases in both calibration and validation areas, respectively. The area balance approach was used to analyze the proportion of area occupied by different vegetation phases in the simulated and observed map. The result showed the impact of the river modification and hydrological alteration on the floodplain vegetation. The spatially distributed vegetation model developed in this study is a step forward in modeling riparian vegetation succession and can be used for operational loss assessment, and river and floodplain restoration projects.     

Prediction of germination rates of weed species: Relationships between germination speed parameters and species traits

In fields, the timing of weed emergence flushes is mostly related to the timing and rate of seed germination, which depend on seed dormancy level, soil temperature and water potential conditions as well as soil tillage and crop sowing date. Seed germination parameters are essential in weed dynamics models to account for the effects of soil conditions on weed demography. Since these parameters are difficult to measure, our objective was to test the possibility of estimating them from easily accessible information. Seed germination parameters (germination lag-time, time to mid-germination and mid-germination rate) were measured or collected from the literature for 25 weed species with contrasted seed characteristics. Correlations were then searched for between these parameters and morphological, chemical and physiological seed traits as well as seed dormancy level. The dormancy level was positively correlated with speed of germination parameters. Earliness of germination was positively correlated with seed lipid content and the seed area to mass ratio. Germination was also earlier and faster in species with a high base temperature for germination. These relationships explained about half the observed variability in germination speed parameters but should be further tested before being used to predict the germination behaviour of weed species in the field in different seasons.     

基于周边站点优化选取的随机森林PM2.5小时浓度预测研究

空气中的PM_2.5是威胁人体健康的主要大气污染物,对其进行有效预测和及时预警具有重要意义.大量研究表明,纳入周边站点信息的随机森林模型在单站点PM_2.5预测中显示出良好的效果,但在周边站点选取问题上目前尚缺乏针对性研究,部分选取方法带有主观性.本文提出了一种基于时间滞后互相关分析的周边站点优化选取方法,并以上海十五厂空气质量监测站（国控站）为例,构建了预测该站未来1~24 h PM_2.5浓度的随机森林回归模型集,比较分析了预测模型中各输入因子的重要性.研究发现,预测站点当前PM_2.5浓度值对未来1~16 h的预测最为重要,而气象要素中的风向则对于未来17~24 h的预测重要性最高;周边站点PM_2.5信息随着预测时间的延长,其重要程度排名有明显提升,且不同站点对不同时间预测的影响具有显著差异,在建模时应区别对待,优化选取.比较结果表明,使用本文方法选取周边站点建立的预测模型不仅在RMSE等精度指标上具有一定优势（12 h和24 h预报RMSE分别降低11.8%和13.3%）,还在有实用价值的污染事件空报率上有明显降低（12 h和24 h预报空报率分别降低16.1%和25.6%）,具有业务应用潜力.