用隶属度法分析柳杨河水体污染状况

隶属度法和试行评价法对柳杨河两个断面及整个河段进行了分析和评价,结果表明,隶属度法不但可以确定某项污染物是污染等级,还能计算出超标倍数,对试行分析法进行了补充和订正,使得分析结果更加准确。同时分析了断面和水体污染原因,为环境管理提供技术支持和依据。     

纳氏试剂分光光度法测定水质氨氮不确定度的评估

本文对采用纳氏试剂分光光度法（HJ535-2009）测定水中氨氮的实验过程可能引入的各不确定分量的来源进行了详细的分析,然后对各分量进行评定,对测定不确定度做出评估。得出影响测定结果的几种重要因素。     

生产安全事故责任认定定量化方法的探讨

当前,我国生产安全事故的责任认定是在事故调查组分析调查事故原因后,对事故责任者承担的责任进行定性的责任认定,受一定的主观因素影响。为了避免主观因素的影响,本文提出了一种责任认定定量化方法,该方法首先从安全管理、安全技术和职业健康卫生三方面建立了完善的事故影响因素集;然后在分析事故原因后采用专家打分法(德尔菲法)确定各影响因素的影响度,并计算出与事故相关的责任者的累加影响度,即责任大小;最后根据事故造成的人员伤亡和经济损失情况对事故责任者作出处理。此方法对生产安全事故责任认定更加公正客观。     

双曲线拟合法预测真空预压土体的沉降量及固结度

土体固结度是评价真空预压法加固土体效果的一个重要技术指标,而确定土体固结度的关键是土体最大沉降量的计算。本文结合工程实例,依据真空预压法施工前期土体沉降量的实测数据,利用双曲线拟合法进行拟合并预测土体最大沉降量及卸荷时的土体固结度,然后与常用的三点法预测结果进行对比,结果表明双曲线拟合法预测结果更加符合工程实际,且能保证工程的安全。     

GM(1,1)灰色模型在真空预压沉降预测中的应用

土体固结度是真空预压法加固土体效果的一个重要评价指标,地基最大沉降量的计算是确定土体固结度的关键。本文结合工程实例,分析了GM(1,1)灰色模型在真空预压沉降预测中的可行性,根据部分实测数据计算了地基最大沉降量及土体固结度,并与常用的三点法和双曲线法计算结果进行对比,结果表明GM(1,1)灰色模型的预测结果更符合工程实际。该研究对真空预压施工具有一定的指导意义。     

Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander <Emphasis Type="Italic">Speleomantes strinatii</Emphasis>

Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993–2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.     

长三角典型区土壤重金属有效态的协同区域化分析、空间相关分析与空间主成分分析

以昆山市为典型区,采集了126个表层土壤样品,通过多元统计学、地统计学与GIS技术相结合,采用基于协同区域化理论的因子克立格法探讨了长三角多个土壤重金属有效态的区域分异,并在剖析不同空间尺度有效态重金属的空间结构特征基础上,应用空间相关分析和空间主成分分析来揭示引起这种分布格局的成因和污染来源,结果表明,昆山土壤有效态重金属服从正态或对数正态分布,变异系数较大,有效态Cd污染最重.重金属有效态在空间上可划分为块金尺度、小空间尺度（15 km左右）和大空间尺度（40 km左右）,它可用3个尺度的实验（交叉）变异函数的协同区域化模型线性拟合.空间相关分析中,Cd和Zn在3个尺度中的相关性均极显著,且元素在小尺度和大尺度的相关性比块金尺度更强,大尺度的负相关特征较其它尺度明显.空间主成分分析表明,不同尺度的空间污染来源不同.重金属有效态第一、二主成分的空间分布格局结果表明重金属有效态含量与工业活动、污水灌溉和土壤性质密切相关.     

Topsoil organic carbon mineralization and CO2 evolution of three paddy soils from South China and the temperature dependence

Carbon mineralization and its response to climatic warming have been receiving global attention for the last decade. Although the virtual influence of temperature effect is still in great debate, little is known on the mineralization of organic carbon （SOC） of paddy soils of China under warming. SOC mineralization of three major types of China＇s paddy soils is studied through laboratory incubation for 114 d under soil moisture regime of 70% water holding capacity at 20℃ and 25℃ respectively. The carbon that mineralized as CO2 evolved was measured every day in the first 32 d and every two days in the following days. Carbon mineralized during the 114 d incubation ranged from 3.51 to 9.22 mg CO2-C/gC at 20℃ and from 4.24 to 11.35 mg CO2-C/gC at 25℃ respectively; and a mineralizable C pool in the range of 0.24 to 0.59 gC/kg, varying with different soils. The whole course of C mineralization in the 114 d incubation could be divided into three stages of varying rates, representing the three subpools of the total mineralizable C： very actively mineralized C at 1-23 d, actively tnineralized C at 24--74 d and a slowly mineralized pool with low and more or less stabilized C mineralization rate at 75-114 d. The calculated Q10 values ranged from 1.0 to 2.4, varying with the soil types and N status. Neither the total SOC pool nor the labile C pool could account for the total mineralization potential of the soils studied, despite a well correlation of labile C with the shortly and actively mineralized C, which were shown in sensitive response to soil warming. However, the portion of microbial C pool and the soil C/N ratio controlled the C mineralization and the temperature dependence. Therefore, C sequestration may not result in an increase of C mineralization proportionally. The relative control of C bioavailability and microbial metabolic activity on C mineralization with respect to stabilization of sequestered C in the paddy soils of China is to be further studied.     

永定河(北京段)水资源、水环境的变迁及流域社会经济发展对其影响

考察了官厅水库和永定河（北京段）1954—2008年水资源及1980—2005年水环境的变迁,并通过Pearson相关分析探讨了流域社会经济发展对永定河（北京段）水资源和水环境的影响.研究结果表明,①官厅水库建成后近50年来水量和出库水量均大幅衰减,例如,官厅水库来水量从1959年的25.56亿m3锐减至2008年的0...     

1957-2007年新疆天山山区气候变化对径流的影响

利用天山山区1957-2007年的气温、降水量及径流数据,借助非参数检验、小波变换等方法分析了天山山区气温、降水量及年径流量的变化趋势及多时间尺度相关。结果表明:玛纳斯河与塔里木河源流区年径流量、气温与降水量均呈显著增加趋势;在年代际上,塔里木河源流区气温存在11、18和22 a的主周期,降水量存在10、20与22 a的主周期;玛纳斯河气温在10与22 a处存在明显周期,降水量在20与22 a处周期性明显;同时,两源流区气温和降水量皆存在3~6 a的年际周期变化;塔里木河年径流量、气温和降水量的突变点分别发生在1993、1993和1992年,而玛纳斯河分别在1995、1988与1996年发生显著性突变;两流域源流区年径流量与气候因子存在显著的多时间尺度相关关系。