湖南林业科技成果市场化的思考

林业科技成果转化为现实生产力,须通过一系列的中介才能发挥作用,尤其是在社会主义市场经济条件下,其中介更主要地表现为市场.如何使湖南林业科技成果市场化,作者认为:加强湖南林业科技推广是实现湖南林业科技成果市场化的重要环节.     

Laboratory longitudinal diffusion tests: 2. Parameter estimation by inverse analysis

This study focuses on the verification of test interpretations for different state analyses of diffusion experiments. Part 1 of this study identified that steady, quasi-steady and equilibrium state analyses for the through- and in-diffusion tests with solution reservoirs are generally feasible where the tracer is not highly sorptive. In Part 2 we investigate parameter identifiability in transient-state analysis of reservoir concentration variation using a numerical approach. For increased generality, the analytical models, objective functions and Jacobian matrix necessary for inverse analysis of transient-state data are reformulated using unified dimensionless parameters. In these dimensionless forms, the number of unknown parameters is reduced and a single dimensionless parameter represents the sorption property. The dimensionless objective functions are evaluated for individual test methods and parameter identifiability is discussed in relation to the sorption property. The effects of multiple minima and measurement error on parameter identifiability are also investigated. The main findings are that inverse problems for inlet and outlet reservoir concentration analyses are generally unstable and well-posed, respectively. Where the tracer is sorptive, the inverse problem for the inlet reservoir concentration analysis may have multiple minima. When insufficient measurement data is collected, multiple solutions may result and this should be taken into consideration when inversely analyzing data including that of inlet reservoir concentration. Verification of test interpretation by cross-checking different state analyses is feasible where the tracer is not highly sorptive. In an actual experiment, test interpretation validity is demonstrated through consistency between theory and practice for different state analyses.     

Prospects for Reconciling the Conflict between Economic Growth and Biodiversity Conservation with Technological Progress

Abstract: The conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation is understood in portions of academia and sometimes acknowledged in political circles. Nevertheless, there is not a unified response. In political and policy circles, the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is posited to solve the conflict between economic growth and environmental protection. In academia, however, the EKC has been deemed fallacious in macroeconomic scenarios and largely irrelevant to biodiversity. A more compelling response to the conflict is that it may be resolved with technological progress. Herein I review the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation in the absence of technological progress, explore the prospects for technological progress to reconcile that conflict, and provide linguistic suggestions for describing the relationships among economic growth, technological progress, and biodiversity conservation. The conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation is based on the first two laws of thermodynamics and principles of ecology such as trophic levels and competitive exclusion. In this biophysical context, the human economy grows at the competitive exclusion of nonhuman species in the aggregate. Reconciling the conflict via technological progress has not occurred and is infeasible because of the tight linkage between technological progress and economic growth at current levels of technology. Surplus production in existing economic sectors is required for conducting the research and development necessary for bringing new technologies to market. Technological regimes also reflect macroeconomic goals, and if the goal is economic growth, reconciliatory technologies are less likely to be developed. As the economy grows, the loss of biodiversity may be partly mitigated with end‐use innovation that increases technical efficiency, but this type of technological progress requires policies that are unlikely if the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation (and other aspects of environmental protection) is not acknowledged.     

遂宁市大英县席家沟地区大气扩散参数研究

本文介绍了用平衡气球探测法研究遂宁市大英县席家沟地区大气扩散参数及结果,并与国标推荐值进行了比较。     

Did Child Restraint Laws Globally Converge? Examining 40 Years of Policy Diffusion

Objective: The objective of the current study is to determine what factors have been associated with the global adoption of mandatory child restraint laws (ChRLs) since 1975.

Methods: In order to determine what factors explained the global adoption of mandatory ChRLs, Weibull models were analyzed. To carry out this analysis, 170 countries were considered and the time risk corresponded to 5,146 observations for the period 1957–2013. The dependent variable was first time to adopt a ChRL. Independent variables representing global factors were the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank's (WB) road safety global campaign; the Geneva Convention on Road Traffic; and the United Nation's (UN) 1958 Vehicle Agreement. Independent variables representing regional factors were the creation of the European Transport Safety Council and being a Commonwealth country. Independent variables representing national factors were population; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; political violence; existence of road safety nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and existence of road safety agencies. Urbanization served as a control variable. To examine regional dynamics, Weibull models for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth were also carried out.

Results: Empirical estimates from full Weibull models suggest that 2 global factors and 2 national factors are significantly associated with the adoption of this measure. The global factors explaining adoption are the WHO and WB's road safety global campaign implemented after 2004 (P <.01), and the UN's 1958 Vehicle Agreement (P <.001). National factors were GDP (P <.01) and existence of road safety agencies (P <.05). The time parameter ρ for the full Weibull model was 1.425 (P <.001), suggesting that the likelihood of ChRL adoption increased over the observed period of time, confirming that the diffusion of this policy was global. Regional analysis showed that the UN's Convention on Road Traffic was significant in Asia, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was significant in Europe and North America, and the global campaign was in Africa. In Commonwealth and European and North American countries, the existence of road safety agencies was also positively associated with ChRL adoption.

Conclusions: Results of the world models suggest that the WHO and WB's global road safety campaign was effective in disseminating ChRLs after 2004. Furthermore, regions such as Asia and Europe and North America were early adopters since specific regional and national characteristics anticipated the introduction of this policy before 2004. In this particular case, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was fundamental in promoting ChRLs. Thus, in order to introduce conditions to more rapidly diffuse road safety measures across lagging regions, the maintenance of global efforts and the creation of road safety regional organizations should be encouraged. Lastly, the case of ChRL convergence illustrates how mechanisms of global and regional diffusion need to be analytically differentiated in order better to assess the process of policy diffusion.     

Model of chloride ingress into concrete in cold regions

Chloride ingress and freeze-thaw cycles are the most important mechanisms for deterioration of concrete in cold areas. In this study, chloride ingress into concrete that has been exposed to freeze-thaw cycles was investigated. Data demonstrated that freeze-thaw cycles allow for a larger effective diffusion coefficient. Based on our findings, the concept of a developing coefficient was defined to obtain the evolution equation of the effective diffusion coefficient. Together with considering the effect of aging of concrete on the effective diffusion coefficient, the time-dependent diffusion coefficient was also obtained. Based on Fick's second law and time-dependent diffusion coefficient, chloride ingress model of concrete in cold regions was derived. Finally, the model was tested by comparing predicted results, lab results, and in situ inspection data.     

基于情景信息扩散模型的雾霾社会风险演化仿真研究

雾霾灾害不仅危害公众健康,且风险信息的传播会引发社会次级风险。为了研究社会风险信息的扩散演化趋势,本文构建了雾霾社会风险的情景信息扩散模型。以中国2013年雾霾灾害为例,将风险信息扩散过程分为爆发期、扩散期和稳定期,分析了不同参数条件下的信息扩散规律。结果表明,政府应在风险信息爆发期和扩散期增大官方渠道信息的覆盖范围,尤其在爆发期需对自由渠道发布的信息进行严格监管,在社会风险扩大之前制定应对策略。     

Impact of leakage location and downwind storage tank on the gas dispersion in a typical chemical tank storage area

Toxic gas leakage in a tank area can have catastrophic consequences. Storage tank leakage location (particularly for high leakage) and downwind storage tanks potentially influence gas diffusion in tank areas. In this study, we developed a numerical and experimental method to investigate the impact of a high leakage location and downwind storage tank on gas diffusion based on three (1.05H, 0.90H, and 0.77H, H was the tank height, 22m) leakage field experiments on the leeward side of storage tank, which have been not conducted before. The experiments revealed an unexpected phenomenon: the maximum ground concentration first decreased and then increased with increasing leakage height. The simulations illustrated that the differences in micrometeorological conditions caused the maximum ground concentration of gas emitted from the roof to be higher than that emitted from the tank wall near the storage tank height. The downwind storage tank 1) had little influence on the entire diffusion direction but altered the local diffusion pattern; 2) reduced the maximum ground concentration (∼18.7%) and the distance from the emission source (approximately a storage tank diameter); and 3) had strong influences on the concentration, velocity, turbulence, and pressure on the leeward side. The concentration negatively correlated with the velocity, pressure, and turbulence in the middle of the two storage tanks on wind centerline. Our results can improve understanding of gas dispersion in tank areas and provide references for mitigating loss and protecting lives during emergency response processes.     

粤北地区一次臭氧污染过程分析及数值模拟

2020年7月1日,粤北地区出现了一次O₃污染过程,其中韶关市录得全省最高值162 μg·m^-3.本文利用常规观测资料以及再分析资料对影响此次韶关地区O₃污染过程的主要气象场特征进行分析,结果表明：6月28日—7月2日天气形势总体处于静稳状态,地面受到均压场控制,同时副热带高压较强,脊线位于韶关上空,导致中高层有下沉气流,抑制了垂直方向污染物的扩散.6月28—30日（污染积累阶段）,风速较大,韶关在外来输送和污染扩散条件的共同作用下,O₃浓度上升但未超标.7月1日（污染持续阶段）,韶关和清远两地风速减小,污染扩散条件不利;同时气温有所上升,光化学反应作用增强,有利于O₃浓度攀升;同时广州和佛山两地的风向从偏南风转为偏北风,韶关市维持偏南风,主导风向的差异是全省只有韶关O₃超标的主要原因.7月2日（污染消散阶段）,O₃外来传输及本地生成作用减弱,全省O₃浓度下降.进一步利用HYSPLIT后向轨迹以及WRF-CMAQ空气质量模式对3个阶段臭氧浓度变化的原因进行定量分析,结果表明：在积累阶段污染气团主要来源于广州、佛山和清远,外来输送作用明显;而在持续阶段3地O₃浓度低,O₃外来输送作用减弱;WRF-CMAQ模型定量过程诊断分析得出污染积累和持续阶段广州的水平平流输送项均为负贡献,分别达30%和18%,输出作用显著,但污染积累阶段较大的风速使得O₃在韶关地区无法堆积,韶关地区的水平输送正贡献项占比仅为12%;而在持续阶段,风速减小有利于污染物堆积,此阶段00：00—08：00时水平平流贡献项占比达59%,另外10：00—16：00本地气相化学过程的贡献项占比达56%.因此外地输送堆积以及本地气相化学生成共同造成了此次韶关地区的O₃污染过程.     

焊接工艺多源散发的高温颗粒污染物扩散特性数值模拟

为探究热工艺过程产生的热气流作用下颗粒的迁移规律,基于气固两相离散粒子模型(DPM)对多源浮射流伴生的高温颗粒的扩散特性进行了数值研究,讨论了两相流运动过程中热气流与颗粒群的温度和速度的瞬时变化情况.结果表明,对于473K£T₀£673K的高温颗粒群,温度衰减趋势类似,颗粒群温度分布呈中心对称;当5μm£d_p£20μm时,颗粒与气流之间的跟随性随着粒径的增大而降低;热羽流随时间经历了独立发展和相互合并的过程,羽流之间涡旋结构的消失导致中心位污染源散发的d_p=10μm的颗粒更容易发生沉降.