Factors influencing length of maternal care in brown bears (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ursus arctos</Emphasis>) and its effect on offspring

Length of maternal care, i.e. the interval between successfully raised litters, is the most important factor explaining the variation in reproductive rate among brown-bear (Ursus arctos) populations. In this paper, we examine the variation in length of maternal care in radio-marked brown bears and its effect on their offspring in northern Sweden. Young stayed with their mothers for 1.4–1.5 or 2.4–2.5 (in one case 3.5) years and were weaned with body masses varying from 17 to 69 kg. The probability of yearling litters staying with their mother for a 2nd year increased with decreasing yearling body mass, and was higher for litters with two offspring than for litters with one or three to four offspring. Staying with their mothers for a 2nd year had a positive effect on mass gain in yearlings and this effect was more pronounced in litters with two than three to four offspring. Body mass of 2-year-olds was not related to age of weaning, suggesting that keeping offspring for an additional year mainly compensated for low yearling body mass. If large offspring body mass positively affects later offspring survival and reproduction, mothers may be able to optimize the length of maternal care according to the litter size and the size of their yearlings.Communicated by F. Trillmich     

Accounting for the Mesoscale Effects on the Air Pollution in Some Cases of Large Sulfur Pollution in Bulgaria or Northern Greece

The objective of the present work is to demonstrate the influence of the meso-scale dynamic phenomena on the larger scale air pollution characteristics. A limited set of episodes with very large sulphur pollution in Bulgaria or Northern Greece is chosen for the study. A 3D quasi-hydrostatic model of the meso-scale dynamics, based on the Businesque approximation (the formulation of Guthman) is used for the purpose. Some numerical experiments for the Balkan Peninsula are carried out under different background (synoptic) conditions. The simulated flow systems outline the main topography effects, typical for the region, such as slope winds, channelling of the air flows or blocking effects. Numerical simulations of the air pollution transport are also carried out, with and without accounting for the meso-scale deformations of the wind field. The comparison of the air pollution characteristics, obtained in both the cases demonstrates that the underlying surface heterogeneity in some of the synoptic situations may have influence not only on the detailed air pollution field in the region, but also on some larger scale pollution characteristics – the total pollution quantity in the air above the countries, the mean surface concentration, the pollution fluxes trough the country boundaries, dry and wet deposition.     

Resampling from stochastic simulations

To model the uncertainty of an estimate of a global property, the estimation process is repeated on multiple simulated fields, with the same sampling strategy and estimation algorithm. As opposed to conventional bootstrap, this resampling scheme allows for spatially correlated data and the common situation of preferential and biased sampling. The practice of this technique is developed on a large data set where the reference sampling distributions are available. Comparison of the resampled distributions to that reference shows the probability intervals obtained by resampling to be reasonably accurate and conservative, provided the original and actual sample has been corrected for the major biases induced by preferential sampling.Andre G. Journel is a Professor of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University with a joint appointment in the Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences. He is, also, Director of the Stanford Center for Reservoir Forecasting. Professor Journel has pioneered applications of geostatistical techniques in the mining/petroleum industry and extended his expertise to environmental applications and repository site characterization. Most notably, he developed the concept of non-parametric geostatistics and stochastic imaging with application to modeling uncertainty in reservoir/site characterization. Although the research described in this article has been supported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement CR819407, it has not been subjected to Agency review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Chemical defense: incorporation of diet-derived pyrrolizidine alkaloid into the integumental scales of a moth (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Utetheisa ornatrix</Emphasis>)

Summary. Evidence is presented that pyrrolizidine alkaloid acquired by Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae) as a larva from Crotalaria foodplants is incorporated in part into the scales of the adult. A single forewing of a male or female moth may contain in the order of 6 to 13 g monocrotaline in its scale cover or about 1 to 2% of the moths systemic monocrotaline content. Based on estimates of the number of scales per forewing, the monocrotaline content of individual scales is calculated to be in the order of 0.1 and 0.2 ng monocrotaline per male and female scale, respectively. This amounts to concentrations of about 1 and 3%, values roughly at a par with the average systemic concentration (0.5-0.6%) previously determined for monocrotaline in Utetheisa. It is argued that the presence of pyrrolizidine alkaloid in the moths scale coating could account for the promptness with which adult Utetheisa are rejected by spiders. It is suggested further that chemical impregnation of scales with substances deterrent to predators may be more widespread among insects than generally assumed.     

温度对多孔射气介质氡析出影响试验研究

为了研究围岩中温度对氡析出率的影响,选取某铀矿铀尾矿矿砂试样,根据相似准则设计并制作了测量多孔射气介质氡析出率的室内试验装置。采用RAD-7氡测量仪,运用等时间间隔取样方法测量氡浓度。采用对照试验的方法研究了温度对多孔射气介质氡析出率的影响规律。试验结果表明,在自然压力下,在温度为20℃到60℃范围内,随着温度的升高,多孔介质氡析出率逐渐增大,并且氡析出率与温度符合线性函数关系。     

基于最优传递矩阵的层次分析法在桥梁震害评估中的应用

影响桥梁抗震性能的因素众多,鉴于传统的定量方法无法精确权衡各因素的影响程度,因此,考虑将不确定型层次分析法引入桥梁的震害评估中,对区间标度的合理选择作了简要讨论,运用1～9标度采集数据,兼顾10/10～18/2标度的精确性,对初始判断矩阵进行折算。利用最优传递矩阵的概念,对传统的AHP进行改进,直接求出各指标的权重值。并将此方法应用到实例当中,建立基于地震波、墩台基础、支座、结构因素、环境因素等多因素影响下的桥梁震害评估模型,得到桥梁最终的综合评估值。     

基于心态指标的煤矿瓦斯爆炸区间数模糊评价

为了评估煤矿瓦斯爆炸的安全性,根据瓦斯爆炸的形成条件和事故致因理论,建立了评价体系。然后采用一种新的区间数模糊评价方法,建立数学模型。传统的区间数模糊评价方法是根据最大隶属度原则判断该对象的优劣,不能进行多个对象之间的评价。该方法综合考虑了最大隶属度和评语集,提出区间数的内积公式,进而得到每个对象的综合分数,通过比较其大小进行多个对象之间的评价。考虑到决策者不同心态时对决策方案的影响,引入心态指标,通过调节心态指标来比较综合分数,从而得出煤矿之间的安全性大小。最后,将该方法应用到3所煤矿,运用基于中点值的区间数排序方法对综合评判向量进行分析,所得结果与该方法的结果基本一致,从而验证该方法的正确性。     

基于间隔偏最小二乘法短程硝化反硝化中无机盐氮的近红外光谱

采用序批式活性污泥反应器(SBR)研究短程硝化反硝化系统中稳定条件下无机盐氮的变化规律,利用小波去噪法对无机盐氮的近红外光谱进行预处理,并用间隔偏最小二乘法(iPLS)建立无机盐氮含量的校正模型(iPLS模型).结果表明:小波去噪法对原始光谱中的部分噪声进行滤除,从而提高了模型的精度.采用最小二乘法对预处理后的光谱进行建模,优选出最佳波长区间并将光谱划分为20个子区间,优选出的氨氮特征波数为8243~8663cm-1,亚硝酸盐氮特征波数为4000~4420cm-1.所建模型对氨氮、亚硝酸盐氮校正时的相关系数(rc)分别达到0.9582、0.9544,校正均方根误差(RMSECV)分别为0.0321、0.0406;预测时的相关系数(rp)分别为0.9184、0.8816,预测均方根误差(RMSEP)分别为0.0790、0.0451.采用实际污水为原水时校正模型对氨氮、亚硝酸盐氮预测的相关系数(rp￠)分别为0.9190、0.8739,预测均方根误差(RMSEP′)分别为0.0578、0.0229.模型对氨氮和亚硝酸盐氮的预测总体效果较好.用小波去噪和最小二乘法建立模型不仅能有效减少建模所需变量数、缩短运算时间,而且模型预测精度较高,为无机盐氮的快速测定提供了一种可行的分析技术.     

基于改进贝叶斯神经网络的航空公司安全敏感性分析

针对当下航空公司安全质量管理体系(Quality Management System,SQMS)中风险识别与可靠性改进的问题,提出了基于区间数学改进的贝叶斯神经网络的灵敏度分析方法。利用区间数学理论分析贝叶斯神经网络中各指标与整体安全质量状况的扰动关系,实现指标灵敏度分析。通过东方航空公司的实例分析,发现在对指标进行人工干预时组合指标干预效果较好,且安全管理体系实施后指标的灵敏度有明显向好的方向变化的趋势。     

重金属污染土壤属性区间识别模型的赋权分析

土壤重金属污染评价为土壤重金属污染的及时防范和综合治理提供重要的理论依据。文章在属性区间识别理论的基础上,构建土壤重金属污染评价的属性区间识别模型：选取土壤重金属污染中普遍存在的Hg、Cd、As、Pb、Cu、Zn作为评价指标,采用均化系数将各评价指标的属性测度区间转化为综合属性测度;为避免主观因素,利用主成分分析法、熵权法、CRITIC法对各评价指标进行3次客观赋权;最后根据置信度准则和分级标准进行土壤重金属污染的综合评价。对3种赋权法得到的权重和评价结果进行比较,表明：属性识别模型在土壤重金属污染评价中适用且有利于评价结果准确性的提高;3种客观赋权法算得的权重合理,且其优异程度为主成分分析法〈熵权法〈CRITIC法。