基于人因失误理论的安全文化评价指标体系构建——以建筑企业为例

为构建一个科学的建筑企业安全文化评价指标体系,实现对企业安全文化水平的客观评价。通过问卷调查及信息沉淀的方式获取影响建筑企业安全文化水平的各种因素,并基于人因失误理论对建筑企业安全文化影响因素进行分析和归类。在构建的建筑企业安全文化评价概念体系的基础上,采用因子分析的方法构建建筑企业安全文化评价指标体系。研究结果表明:该指标体系不仅可以描述指标的重要程度,而且可以明确各指标之间的因果关系,对建筑企业安全文化的构建具有一定的指导意义。     

基于APJE-SLIM的海运人因失误概率的确定

安全是海运行业永恒的主题,调查研究表明,人因失误是造成海事的主要原因。为了对海运人因失误进行研究,探讨引起人因失误的行为形成因子(PSF),确定在PSF影响下的人因失误概率。在调查海上避让行为的人因失误和这些失误的行为形成因子的基础上,采用APJE和SLIM相结合的方法对航海人员避让行为中的可靠性进行分析。结果表明,航海人员疲劳与健康程度、知识、经验与培训水平、任务复杂程度、安全管理水平与组织有效性等PSF对人因失误概率有着不同程度的影响,相应提高PSF水平,可极大地减少人因失误概率。利用APJE确定端点绝对失误概率,解决了SLIM方法中难以获得参考点概率的问题,获得了在不同种类不同水平PSF影响下的海运人因失误概率。     

旋转压缩机油路系统仿真与试验研究

压缩机泵油系统对滚动转子压缩机性能和可靠性非常重要.为了了解压缩机泵油特性.本文应用CFD软件,采用VOF模型对滚动转子压缩机整个泵油系统进行数值模拟,搭建试验台进行试验,并将模拟和试验结果进行对比,结果表明上法兰螺旋槽处润滑油流量结果吻合很好,误差在10％以内,证明了该仿真方法的可行性.     

电磁辐射测量仪对测量结果的影响分析

目前国内外对环境电磁波的测量仪器主要分为两类,分别是选频式和非选频式。选频式仪器由各类测量接收机或频谱分析仪和接收天线组成,其不适于非周期信号测量。非选频式仪器由各类全向型探头和主机组成,适用于周期和非周期信号的环境电磁波测量,但这类仪器动态范围不高。本文采用了两种不同的测量仪器,分别以单频连续波和调制脉冲为激励信号进行比较分析。结果表明：随着测量信号电平增加,两种仪器测量结果数据趋于一致。而在用两种标准的不同方法计算某一频段的复合场强时,其数值有较大差异。     

我国城镇化进程中碳排放影响因素的实证研究

利用1980—2013年间的城镇人口与碳排放数据,选取城镇化进程中影响碳排放的城镇化水平、城镇建设用地面积、第三产业增加值、人均可支配收入、城镇人均绿化面积等因素,实证分析了城镇化对我国碳排放的影响程度,并利用格兰杰夫因果关系与误差修正模型分析了二者的因果关系与时间效应。最后,从降低工业碳排放、加快低碳城镇化试点建设、推进低碳社区发展,促进新能源发展等方面提出了相关建议。     

基于PS-InSAR技术探测地表形变的实验研究

常规合成孔径雷达差分干涉测量技术在区域地表形变探测中存在时空失相关和大气延迟的影响,为了克服或减弱它们的影响,分离和提取线性、非线性形变时间序列以及地形数据误差与大气信号,以西安市沉降场为研究对象,用17景Envisat数据进行了实验研究,并与常规D-InSAR结果比较,证实了PS-InSAR技术用于地表形变监测的有效性.     

Critical Steps for Continuing Advancement of Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology in the Nile River Basin1

Gebremichael, Mekonnen, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, and Menberu M. Bitew, 2010. Critical Steps for Continuing Advancement of Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology in the Nile River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):361-366. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00428.x. Abstract: Given the increasingly higher resolution and data accessibility, satellite precipitation products could be useful for hydrological application in the Nile River Basin, which is characterized by lack of reasonably dense hydrological in situ sensors and lack of access to the existing dataset. However, in the absence of both extreme caution and research results for the Nile basin, the satellite rainfall (SR) products may not be used, or may even be used erroneously. We identify two steps that are critical to enhance the value of SR products for hydrological applications in the Nile basin. The first step is to establish representative validation sites in the Nile basin. The validation site will help to quantify the errors in the different kinds of SR products, which will be used to select the best products for the Nile basin, include the errors in decision making, and design strategies to minimize the errors. Using rainfall measurements collected from the unprecedented high-density rain gauge network over a small region within the Nile basin, we indicate that SR estimates could be subject to significant errors, and quantification of estimation errors by way of establishing validation sites is critically important in order to use the SR products. The second step is to identify the degree of hydrologic model complexity required to obtain more accurate hydrologic simulation results for the Nile basin when using SR products as input. The level of model complexity may depend on basin size and SR algorithm, and further research is needed to spell out this dependence for the Nile basin.     

Risk assessment tools incorporating human error probabilities in the Japanese small-sized establishment

Although it has been estimated that as many as 80% of all occupational accidents have human errors as a cause, no risk assessment tools incorporating human-related elements have been developed for small companies. Human error probability (HEP) and human error analysis (HEA) have been used for large-scale, safety-critical industries for last three decades, but these tools are not suitable for smaller, more general industries that comprise the majority of accident settings.Here, we describe and verify a risk assessment tool that includes human-related elements for small companies. The tool expands on traditional risk assessment methods, such as matrix, risk graph and numerical scoring method, by adding human-related elements. The tool is easy-to-use in occupational environments, and includes assessments of human behavior and potentially outdated machinery at work place.     

CREAM失误概率预测法在驾驶舱机组判断与决策过程中的应用

CREAM强调人在生产活动中的绩效输出不是孤立的随机性行为,而是依赖于人完成任务时所处的环境或工作条件,它通过影响人的认知控制模式和其在不同认知活动中的效应,最终决定人的响应行为。在驾驶舱内,机组的绩效输出不仅仅是人的自身行为,还依赖于其完成任务时所处的情景环境,所以CREAM方法能够结合驾驶舱环境对机组的认知差错进行分析。在飞行中,驾驶舱内机组非常重要的一个环节是判断与决策过程,这一过程中包括询问、讨论、确定方案、执行、反馈五个环节。本文将通过分析这五个环节的相互关系及影响,以明确这种讨论过程是减少机组人为差错发生的一种有益方式,然后应用CREAM的预测法对这五个环节进行定量化分析,得出机组判断与决策过程的失误概率,完成对机组认知行为的客观评价,并为以后能够定量化研究驾驶舱内飞行员认知差错提供方法的借鉴。     

综合孔径微波辐射计信道误差补偿研究

在一维综合孔径微波辐射计的理想信道仿真模型基础上对接收机信道的非理想特性进行分析并建立仿真模型,该模型包含了信道间的串扰、不平衡度、乘法器前端输入失衡等多种误差因素,最后从相位误差和系统噪声对干涉相关测量产生的贡献入手,提出有效抑制误差的亮温补偿方法,进而得到更接近真实亮温分布的反演结果.