城市非点源污染模型研究进展

回顾了城市非点源污染模型的发展历史,分析了能够模拟城市非点源污染的7个国外模型(SWMM、STORM、SLAMM、HSPF、DR3M-QUAL、MOUSE和HydroWorks)的特点、适用性和局限性,介绍了国外城市非点源污染模型不确定性研究方法和成果以及城市非点源污染分析概率模型,总结了国内城市非点源污染模型的研究成果.指出国外城市非点源污染模型在污染物累积和冲刷、泥沙和污染物运移、污染物的生化反应等方面模拟能力不足,而国内城市非点源污染模型多是经验模型,模拟面积较小,模拟精度较差.提出未来城市非点源污染模型研究应提高泥沙和污染物的模拟能力,探索无资料和不完全信息下城市非点源污染的模拟和预测,加强城市非点源污染随机性模型的研究,发展城市非点源污染模型与GIS的耦合应用.     

结构应力逆向推演模型及其不确定度定量分析

目的 针对现有结构安全在线监测与评估方法存在的短板,结合人工智能方法探索新的解决方案。提出一种基于有限测点应力逆向推演整体结构应力分布的方法,以数据驱动的模式,基于神经网络技术搭建算法模型。方法 以结构有限元仿真数据为基础,运用相关性分析方法,获取代表结构响应特征的有限个测点,利用神经网络方法构建基于有限测点应力推演结构全场应力分布的算法模型。结果 以科学试验平台的连接器结构为对象,开展该算法模型的应用研究,并且对该应用实例下的算法模型开展不确定度分析,推演结果的相对不确定度u95rel为8.6%。结论 该算法模型的推演结果正确反映了结构总体响应特征。从建模过程角度分析,该算法模型的不确定度来源主要包括相关性分析方法、神经网络建模以及模型收敛条件3个方面。     

河南省人类活动净磷输入的时空变化与影响参数

为探究河南省人类活动净磷输入状况,基于河南省18个省辖市(县辖市)行政单元统计数据,利用人类活动净磷输入量(NAPI)模型,核算河南省1990、1995、2000、2005、2010、2015和2019年人类活动净磷输入量.结果表明:在时间尺度上,1990～2015年河南省NAPI整体呈升高趋势,2015～2019年略...     

Uncertainty in Agricultural CH<Subscript>4</Subscript> AND N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O Emissions from Finland – Possibilities to Increase Accuracy in Emission Estimates

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol under it, industrial countries have to estimate their greenhouse gas emissions annually, and assess the uncertainties in these estimates. In Finland, agricultural methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N_2O) emissions represent 7% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and globally the share is much higher. Agriculture is one of the most uncertain emission categories (representing over 20% of greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty in Finland), due to both high natural variability of the emission sources and poor knowledge of the emission-generating processes. In this paper, we present an uncertainty estimate of agricultural CH₄ and N₂O emissions from Finland in 2002. Uncertainties were estimated based on measurement data, literature and expert judgement, and total uncertainty in agriculture was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. According to the calculations, agricultural CH₄ and N₂O emissions from Finland were 3.7 to 7.8 Tg carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalents, 5.4 Tg being the mean value.Estimates of CH₄ emissions are more reliable than those of N₂O. N₂O from agricultural soils was the most uncertain emission category, and the uncertainty was not reduced by using available national measurement data of N₂O fluxes. Sensitivity study revealed that the uncertainty in total agricultural inventory could be 7% points lower, if more accurate emission estimation methods were used, including 1) improved data collection in area estimates of organic soils, 2) climate-specific methods for N₂O from agricultural soils as already presented in literature, and 3) more detailed CH₄ estimation methods for enteric fermentation which can be achieved by investigating national circumstances and digestible systems of animals in more detail.     

测量不确定度在空气自动监测中的应用

根据测量原理建立数学模型，分析各种不确定分量的来源，评定标准不确定度，确定合成不确定度和扩展不确定度。通过不确定影响分量的分析，找出最大不确定分量，重点控制其分量，可保证测量的准确性和精度，也可通过重新评估显著性不确定分量，找出方法存在的不足和问题，提出控制不确定分量的步骤和方法，改善测量方法和手段提高测量准确性和精度。     

Informational uncertainties of risk assessment about accidents of chemicals

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离子选择电极分析法测定标样中氟化物的不确定度评定

通过对离子选择电极法测定标样中氟化物的过程研究，分析了该方法测量不确定度的来源，给出了相对不确定度分量，得出测量扩展不确定度的结果。     

Probabilistic prediction of exposures to arsenic contaminated residential soil

Probabilistic modelling using Monte Carlo simulation has been proposed as a more scientifically valid method of estimating soil contaminant exposures than conservative deterministic methods currently used by regulatory agencies. A retrospective application of probabilistic modelling to an exposure scenario involving arsenic-contaminated residential soil near the former ASARCO smelter near Tacoma, Washington is presented. The population of interest is children, aged 2–6 years, living within one-half mile (0.3 km) of the smelter site. Models that predict urinary arsenic levels based on unintentional soil ingestion and inhalation exposure pathways are used. Distributions of exposure variables are based on site-specific data and previous exposure studies. Simulated urinary arsenic levels are compared with data from two biomonitoring studies performed during the late 1980s. Arsenic distributions produced by simulation and biomonitoring are significantly different, and likely contributors to this difference are discussed. However the probabilistic model provides closer estimations of urinary arsenic levels than conservative deterministic models similar to those used by regulatory agencies, and provides useful information regarding parameter uncertainty. Soil ingestion rate was a driving variable in the probabilistic models. Further quantification of soil ingestion rates is warranted.     

海洋排放二甲基硫通量的研究进展

综述国内外二甲基硫（DMS）海气通量的研究进展，总结了DMS海气通量的各种估算方法。重点讨论滞膜模型及其传输速率常数的确定，进而分析DMS海气通量估算中存在的不确定性。     

旧工业建筑再生利用项目施工安全的评价及改进

针对旧工业建筑再生利用项目施工过程中存在诸多安全隐患的问题,首先,结合此类项目遗留工业垃圾冗杂、施工场地狭窄、部分构件拆换、大型机械使用受限的施工特点从4MTE角度构建施工安全评价指标体系。然后,在考虑指标赋权的主客观综合性与评价工作的未确知性后,建立了基于结构熵权法与未确知测度理论的旧工业建筑再生利用项目施工安全评价模型,并通过工程实例验证该模型,得出的评价结果与实际情况相符。最后,结合未确知测度单因素指标测度函数的特点,提出了施工安全管理改进策略的制定方法。