天津南港工业区土壤环境背景值调查

通过对天津南港工业区土壤环境背景值的调查研究,对其土壤进行了环境质量评价,并得出了该区域土壤元素的分布规律。在与其他地区的土壤背景值进行比较后,指出了其异同点。天津南港工业区土壤元素在垂直方向上以不规则分布型为主,但As和Cd在土壤表层和深层的含量变化差异较小,Pb表现为表层富集。水平方向上,园区西北部的土壤元素含量比...     

德兴地区土壤重金属人为污染的地球化学评价

在系统采集德兴地区表层土壤样品的基础上,采用标准化方法确定了该区Cu、Pb、Zn、Cr、Cd、Hg、As的地球化学基线值,并采用富集因子对表层土壤的人为污染进行了地球化学评价.结果表明:1)土壤中7种重金属元素的基线值较江西省土壤背景值高;2)土壤中As、Hg、Cd、Cr、Pb、Zn的人为污染以轻微污染为主,Cu的人为污染为轻微污染和中度污染,人为污染的区域主要分布在德兴铜矿及其周边地区;3)土壤重金属污染源判别表明,Pb、Zn、Cd具有相似的来源,其污染与铅锌矿的采矿及冶炼活动有关,Cu的来源与德兴铜矿的采矿活动有关,其他重金属来源差异较大.     

寒旱区草原湖泊沉积物重金属地球化学基线构建——以达里诺尔湖为例

为了科学识别寒旱区典型草原湖泊——达里诺尔湖的沉积物重金属累积状况,在调查表层及柱状沉积物重金属含量的基础上,采用多种统计学方法构建了沉积物重金属地球化学基线,并针对构建结果进行了多方面比较分析.结果表明,Cr、Ni、Cu、Zn、As、Cd、Hg、Pb在表层及柱状沉积物中均呈正态分布或对数正态分布,其中,柱状沉积物中的重金属分布较表层更为集中,且As、Cd、Hg在近表层呈现较明显的增长趋势,表明存在一定的表层富集;使用参考元素法、相对累积频率法和迭代2倍标准差法构建的表层、柱状沉积物重金属基线值之间无显著差异（P<0.05）,综合考虑科学性,适用性,简便性,人为误差性等方面,可优先选取迭代2倍标准差法进行元素基线构建;研究构建的达里诺尔湖沉积物重金属基线值与所在区域的大尺度土壤背景值相比存在差异,且表层与柱状沉积物基线值也存在差异,考虑到达里诺尔湖流域人为干扰极小,使用研究区域的表层沉积物开展基线值构建,可为识别湖泊当前重金属富集状况和生态风险提供更为科学和准确的参考依据.研究结果可为类似的寒旱区草原湖泊沉积物重金属基线值构建提供理论依据.     

A basic study with feasibility of applying clean development mechanism to the transport projects

In the transport sector, few projects applied Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or Joint Implementation (JI) projects. This study will examine the feasibility of applying CDM to the transport sector from viewpoints of validation of processes and funding. A number of greenhouse gas emission reduction projects, as well as traffic management project within existing transport infrastructures, can be implemented as CDM projects. New transport infrastructure projects can be validated by transportdemand forecasting and traffic simulation methods, though application of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) technologies. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Development of regional climate mitigation baseline for a dominant agro-ecological zone of Karnataka,India

Setting a baseline for carbon stock changes in forest and land use sector mitigation projects is an essential step for assessing additionality of the project. There are two approaches for setting baselines namely, project-specific and regional baseline. This paper presents the methodology adopted for estimating the land available for mitigation, for developing a regional baseline, transaction cost involved and a comparison of project-specific and regional baseline. The study showed that it is possible to estimate the potential land and its suitability for afforestation and reforestation mitigation projects, using existing maps and data, in the dry zone of Karnataka, southern India. The study adopted a three-step approach for developing a regional baseline, namely: (i) identification of likely baseline options for land use, (ii) estimation of baseline rates of land-use change, and (iii) quantification of baseline carbon profile over time. The analysis showed that carbon stock estimates made for wastelands and fallow lands for project-specific as well as the regional baseline are comparable. The ratio of wasteland Carbon stocks of a project to regional baseline is 1.02, and that of fallow lands in the project to regional baseline is 0.97. The cost of conducting field studies for determination of regional baseline is about a quarter of the cost of developing a project-specific baseline on a per hectare basis. The study has shown the reliability, feasibility and cost-effectiveness of adopting regional baseline for forestry sector mitigation projects.

三峡库区沉积物中镍污染特征评价

截至2017年10月,三峡库区已连续第8年实现175 m蓄水目标.为了研究三峡库区在175 m运行条件下,基于不同水文情势Ni的时空变化,探求水库调度运行对库区内Ni含量的影响,并建立库区水环境中Ni元素污染评价体系.于2015年12月至2017年6月连续4个水期采集水体表层沉积物共173个,利用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)测定了沉积物中的Ni含量,发现三峡库区4个水期沉积物中Ni的平均含量均高于长江流域沉积物背景值和土壤背景值;从空间变化看,干流Ni含量从上游至下游呈增加趋势,支流Ni含量高于干流,且下游支流的Ni含量明显高于上、中游;从时间变化看,在175 m运行条件下,Ni含量较为稳定,且有降低的趋势,此外沉积物中Ni含量并未因枯、丰水期的影响而产生明显变化;同时建立了三峡库区Ni的地球化学基线模型,连续4个水期沉积物中Ni的基线值分别为47. 0、44. 2、42. 9和41. 9 mg·kg~(-1),位于中、下游的干、支流Ni含量明显受到人类活动的影响;分别以Ni的全球背景值,长江沉积物背景值和地球化学基线值为参考值进行污染评价对比,采用地积累指数法研究发现,三峡库区水环境除干流沿岸的丰都县和秭归县归州镇附近存在Ni的无至中度污染,其余均不存在污染;采用潜在生态风险评价方法发现Ni含量存在轻微潜在生态危害.采用地球化学基线值为参考比采用全球背景值和长江沉积物背景值得到的评价结果更科学,更能适应不同地域的时空变化.     

Reconciling multiple counterfactuals when evaluating biodiversity conservation impact in social-ecological systems

When evaluating the impact of a biodiversity conservation intervention, a counterfactual is typically needed. Counterfactuals are possible alternative system trajectories in the absence of an intervention. Comparing observed outcomes against the chosen counterfactual allows the impact (change attributable to the intervention) to be determined. Because counterfactuals by definition never occur, they must be estimated. Sometimes, there may be many plausible counterfactuals, including various drivers of biodiversity change and defined on a range of spatial or temporal scales. Here, we posit that, by definition, conservation interventions always take place in social-ecological systems (SES) (i.e., ecological systems integrated with human actors). Evaluating the impact of an intervention in an SES, therefore, means taking into account the counterfactuals assumed by different human actors. Use of different counterfactuals by different actors will give rise to perceived differences in the impacts of interventions, which may lead to disagreement about its success or the effectiveness of the underlying approach. Despite that there are biophysical biodiversity trends, it is often true that no single counterfactual is definitively the right one for conservation assessment, so multiple evaluations of intervention efficacy could be considered justifiable. Therefore, we propose calculating the sum of perceived differences, which captures the range of impact estimates associated with different actors in a given SES. The sum of perceived differences gives some indication of how closely actors in an SES agree on the impacts of an intervention. We applied the concept of perceived differences to a set of global, national, and regional case studies (e.g., global realization of Aichi Target 11 for marine protected areas, effect of biodiversity offsetting on vegetation condition in Australia, and influence of conservation measures on an endangered ungulate in Central Asia). We explored approaches for minimizing the sum, including a combination of negotiation and structured decision making, careful alignment of expectations on scope and measurement, and explicit recognition of any intractable differences between stakeholders.     

Updated evaluation of exergy and emergy driving the geobiosphere: A review and refinement of the emergy baseline

Crucial to the method of emergy synthesis are the main driving emergy flows of the geobiosphere to which all other flows are referenced. They form the baseline for the construction of tables of Unit Emergy Values (UEVs) to be used in emergy evaluations. We provide here an updated calculation of the geobiosphere emergy baseline and UEVs for tidal and geothermal flows. First, we recalculate the flows using more recent values that have resulted from satellite measurements and generally better measurement techniques. Second, we have recalculated these global flows according to their available energy content (exergy) in order to be consistent with Odum's (1996) definition of emergy. Finally, we have reinterpreted the interaction of geothermal energy with biosphere processes thus changing the relationship between geothermal energy and the emergy baseline. In this analysis we also acknowledge the significant uncertainties related to most estimates of global data. In all, these modifications to the methodology have resulted in changes in the transformities for tidal momentum and geothermal energy and a minor change in the emergy baseline from 15.8E24 seJ/J to 15.2E24 seJ/J. As in all fields of science basic constants and standards are not really constant but change according to new knowledge. This is especially true of earth and ecological sciences where a large uncertainty is also to be found. As a consequence, while these are the most updated values today, they may change as better understanding is gained and uncertainties are reduced.     

城市污水处理设施建设和运营资金缺口分析

运用FEASIBLE模型选择四川省14个位于三峡库区影响地带的市/县数据进行城市污水处理设施建设和运营资金的供需缺口分析.结果表明:在基线融资情况下,若投资没有显著提高,14个市/县将无法实现城市污水处理基础设施发展目标;排污收集系统的建设将由于资金匮乏落后于污水处理厂的建设;资金来源过度依赖公共预算,会受到其他社会服务对公共预算需求的限制和影响;使用者付费仅能支付污水处理设施运行和维护费用的40%.并针对基线情境下的分析提出改革对策.      

A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale

The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species’ long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075–21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June–September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought.