Weather,salience of climate change and congressional voting

Climate change is a complex long-run phenomenon. The speed and severity with which it is occurring is difficult to observe, complicating the formation of beliefs for individuals. We use Google search intensity data as a proxy for the salience of climate change and examine how search patterns vary with unusual local weather. We find that searches for “climate change” and “global warming” increase with extreme temperatures and unusual lack of snow. Furthermore, we demonstrate that effects of abnormal weather extend beyond search behavior to observable action on environmental issues. We examine the voting records of members of the U.S. Congress from 2004 to 2011 and find that members are more likely to take a pro-environment stance on votes when their home state experiences unusual weather.     

Communicating uncertainty via probabilities: The case of weather forecasts

Capturing uncertainty through numerical probabilistic statements is orthodoxy in risk science—and most of science and technology. There are a wide range of views on the utility of such statements for risk communication, and they are often seen as being central to the failure to generate common understanding about risks between science and non-scientists. The extent to which probability statements are understood is unclear. If such statements are misunderstood by many, what alternatives might communicate uncertainty better?

These questions are examined in the context of daily weather forecasts. The probabilities used in such statements concern daily events experienced by everyone, unlike the extremely small probabilities about unfamiliar events often used in risk communication. If people do not understand weather forecasts, there is little hope that statements about unfamiliar events using unfamiliar language will be understood. Some jurisdictions use numerical probabilistic statements on the likelihood of precipitation, and a variety of qualitative or categorical forecasts are also used. Drawing on a range of sources including public surveys conducted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the paper examines public understanding of probabilities and public and specialist understanding of verbal categorical forecast terms.

The majority of those surveyed have basic understanding about probabilities as used in weather forecasts, but significant groups do not. However, there was limited agreement among forecasters on what the probabilistic statements meant. Similarly, there was limited shared meaning between forecasters and the public on the verbal forecast expression examined.     

非金属材料的氙灯曝露试验概述

氙灯曝露试验是非金属材料的耐候性和耐光性测试的主要方法之一,本文着重介绍了氙灯曝露试验的原理、试验条件在当前的氙灯曝露试验设备上的物理实现、主要的氙灯试验标准以及氙灯曝露试验应考虑的因素.     

汽车行业的氙灯曝露试验综述及技术发展趋势

本文着重对汽车行业主要的氙灯曝露试验标准的技术特点进行了综述,并分析了该行业氙灯曝露试验的技术发展趋势.     

An ethical analysis of hydrometeorological prediction and decision making: The case of the 1997 Red River flood

Weather, climate, and flood predictions are incorporated into human decisions in a wide variety of situations, including decisions related to hazardous hydrometeorological events. This article examines ethical aspects of such predictions and decisions, focusing on the case of the 1997 Red River flood in Grand Forks, North Dakota and East Grand Forks, Minnesota (US). The analysis employs a formal ethical framework and analytical method derived from medical and business ethics. The results of the analysis highlight issues related to forecast generation, communication of forecast meaning and uncertainty, responsibility for the use of forecasts in decision making, and trade-offs between the desire for forecast certainty and the risk of missed events. Implications of the analysis for the broader arenas of weather, climate, and flood prediction and disaster management are also discussed.     

WEATHER MODIFICATION: AN ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVE FOR AUGMENTING WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT. Experimental results of cloud seeding in Southwestern Colorado suggest that runoff can be increased by 25 percent over a 3,300 mile area. There is a need to estimate the economic consequences in the Colorado River Basin. The evidence presented suggests that weather modification is an economically feasible means to provide additional water for the basin. Compared with other proposed means of augmenting water supplies, weather modifications appear to be one of the least cost alternatives. A very low proportion of weather modification costs are fixed; thus the program is easily reversible. Also, a relatively small increase in daily precipitation covers the direct costs of operation. Benefits of water produced by weather modification included power production and irrigation of forage crops. In the long run, if additional water is used for higher valued fruit and vegetable production, or for domestic and industrial purposes, its value would rise sharply. Preliminary investigation of extra-market costs and benefits suggests that while they have little effect on the benefit-cost ratio, they may be very important to individuals and groups affected. The distribution of costs and benefits is important as the benefits accrue to downstream users and some of the costs are incurred by Coloradoans. There is a need for further research on the long-run economic effects of weather modification programs, particularly with respect to extra-market factors.     

To use or not to use torpor? Activity and body temperature as predictors

When food is limited and/or environmental conditions are unfavourable, many mammals reduce activity and use torpor to save energy. Nevertheless, reliable predictors for torpor occurrence, especially in the wild, are currently not available. Interrelations between torpor use and other energy conserving strategies are also poorly understood. We tested the hypothesis that reductions in normothermic body temperature (T _b) and the period of activity before torpor events could be used as predictors for torpor occurrence in sugar gliders, Petaurus breviceps (body mass, ∼125 g), known to display daily torpor in the wild. Occurrence of torpor was preceded by significant (∼10–25%) reductions of the duration of the activity phase. Moreover, the normothermic resting T _b fell by an average of 1.2°C over 3 days before a torpor event, relative to individuals that did not display torpor. Our new findings suggest that before entering torpor, sugar gliders, which appear to use torpor as an emergency measure rather than a routine energy saving strategy, systematically reduce activity times and normothermic resting T _bs to lower energy expenditure and perhaps to avoid employing torpor. Thus, reduced activity and normothermic T _b may provide a predictive tool for the occurrence of daily torpor in the wild.     

Conservation agriculture and climate resilience

Agricultural productivity growth is vital for economic and food security outcomes which are threatened by climate change. In response, governments and development agencies are encouraging the adoption of ‘climate-smart’ agricultural technologies, such as conservation agriculture (CA). However, there is little rigorous evidence that demonstrates the effect of CA on production or climate resilience, and what evidence exists is hampered by selection bias. Using panel data from Zimbabwe, we test how CA performs during extreme rainfall events - both shortfalls and surpluses. We control for the endogenous adoption decision and find that use of CA in years of average rainfall results in no yield gains, and in some cases yield loses. However, CA is effective in mitigating the negative impacts of deviations in rainfall. We conclude that the lower yields during normal rainfall seasons may be a proximate factor in low uptake of CA. Policy should focus promotion of CA on these climate resilience benefits.     

我国高速公路交通事故趋势分析

对高速公路交通事故的主要原因、事故类型和发展趋势作了分析和预测 ,拟合出每百公里交通事故起数的预测公式 ,指出应加强对超速行车、通车初期和恶劣天气时的交通控制。分析结论是 :高速公路交通事故总体上呈下降趋势 ;事故的绝对数将继续增长 ,但每百公里事故起数将逐年平缓下降 ;在高速公路交通事故中 ,单方事故居多 ,超速行驶是引发事故的主要原因 ,追尾是事故的主要形态 ;在高速公路通车初期和恶劣气候条件下 ,事故呈上升趋势     

地球磁场大面积短暂异常与灾害性天气相关性初探

本文利用全国88个磁观测站提供的1990年10月1日～1991年8月31日期间地球磁场绝对强度值,进行空间线性相关分析,发现1990年11月～1991年1月,部分地区发生地磁异常,即相关系数|r_2|值(乘以因子100后)由正常值明显下降至10～40左右。而4～8个月后,地磁异常区与该地区发生的气象灾害有很好的对应关系.