未来30a凉山州水稻盛夏低温危害风险分析

根据(BCC)气候系统模式第五阶段试验计划(CMIP5-RCP6.0)预测的2006~2050年各格点逐日平均温度,通过订正反演出2021~2050年凉山州各站点逐日平均温度,结合凉山州不同区域水稻抽穗杨花期低温指标,统计了各站水稻盛夏低温频次、水稻安全播种期、安全齐穗期以及安全生长季差,构建了水稻盛夏低温危害风险指数I=exp(Id+ip-2),并以此进行低温危害风险的区域划分,结果表明:(1)凉山州水稻盛夏低温频次为0.1~3.0次/a,在区域和年际之间差异很大;(2)与近30a比较,凉山州水稻安全播种期普遍提前10 d左右,提前最多的达20 d以上。安全齐穗期只有少数站点推迟,大多数站点都有提前的趋势;(3)海拔1 500 m以下为无风险区,1 500~2 000 m的区域为低风险区,2 000~2 500 m为中风险区,2 500~2 600 m为高风险区,分区结果与实际情况相符,为凉山州未来水稻生产布局、应对气候变化的影响提供科学依据。     

17β-Estradiol mineralization under field and laboratory incubations

Mineralization studies of natural steroid hormones (e.g., 17β-estradiol, E2) are performed in environmental incubators, usually under a constant temperature such as 20°C. In this paper, we present a microcosm protocol that quantified the mineralization of E2 in soils under field temperatures. The nine agricultural soils tested had a wide range of soil organic carbon (1.1 to 5.2%) and clay (9 to 57%) contents. The calculated time over which half of the applied E2 was mineralized (E2-½) ranged from 299 to 910 d, and total E2 mineralization at 48 d (E2-TOT48) ranged from 4 to 13%. In subsequent laboratory incubations, the same soils were incubated under a constant temperature of 20°C, as well as under cyclic temperatures of 14.5°C (14 h) and 11.5°C (10h), which was within the temperature extremes observed in the field microcosms. E2-½ ranged from 157 to 686 d at 20°C and from 103 to 608 d at the cyclic temperatures, with the E2-TOT48 ranging from 6 to 21% at 20°C and from 7 to 30% under cyclic temperatures. Despite the overall 6.75°C lower mean temperatures under the cyclic versus constant temperatures, E2 mineralization was stimulated by the temperature cycles in three soils. Regardless of the incubation, the same loamy sand soil always showed larger E2 mineralization than the other eight soils and this loamy sand soil also had the smallest E2 sorption. Current modeling approaches do not take into consideration the effects of temperature fluctuations in the field because the input parameters used to describe degradation are derived from laboratory incubations at a constant temperature. Across the eight soils, E2-½ was on average 1.7 times larger and E2-TOT48 was on average 0.8 times smaller under field temperatures than under a constant 20°C. Hence, we conclude that incubations at 20°C give a reasonable representation of E2 mineralization occurring under field conditions to be expected in a typical Prairie summer season.     

Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

三叶鬼针草生物量分配与化感作用对大气温度升高的响应

全球气候变暖已经成为不容置疑的事实,同时外来入侵植物对入侵地的生态环境造成严重的危害,外来入侵植物可能对温度升高做出积极地响应。文章研究了不同温度(22、26和30℃)处理对入侵植物三叶鬼针草(Bidens pilosa L.)种子萌发、幼苗生物量分配及化感作用的影响,探讨三叶鬼针草对全球气候变暖的响应策略。结果表明;温度为22和26℃比30℃有利于三叶鬼针草种子的萌发。温度升高显著增加三叶鬼针草的株高、生物量和叶面积,三叶鬼针草幼苗增加对茎和叶的生物量投资。同时相同浓度的三叶鬼针草水浸提液对马唐(Digitaria sanguinalis(L.)Scop)和牛筋草(Eleusine indica(L.)Gaertn)的化感作用随着温度升高而增强。研究表明:温度升高促进了三叶鬼针草的生长,改变生物量分配模式同时增强了对受体植物的化感作用。温度升高可能是促进三叶鬼针草入侵的生态环境因子之一,未来全球气温变暖可能使其入侵加剧。     

排烟方式对大空间建筑火灾空气升温的影响

为了考察烟气排放对大空间建筑火灾温度场的影响,利用FDS程序仿真模拟了火灾场景,系统分析了不同排烟系统对温度场的影响。结果表明:烟气排放对温度的影响较大,最大降温幅度可达原最高温度的50%左右;降温幅度与建筑高度有密切联系;当建筑高度小于12m时,按规范设计的自然排烟系统下的火场温度低于机械排烟的火场温度;当建筑高度达到或超过12m时,自然排烟系统下的火场温度将接近或高于机械排烟的火场温度。     

城市生活垃圾降解率分析研究

针对城市生活垃圾降解率研究不足的现状,结合室内物理模拟实验,对垃圾温度和垃圾降解率的变化规律进行分析研究。研究结果表明,填埋初期垃圾填埋体温度升高较快,服从三次曲线变化规律;温度对垃圾降解率有重要的影响,单一温度下垃圾降解率随时间变化近似符合微生物生长曲线;不同温度下,温度高,垃圾降解率快,试验证明41.00、45.00℃垃圾降解率最快,垃圾降解率相差不大,可以认为温度高于41.00℃时垃圾降解率可以按照41.00℃时垃圾降解率计算。     

活性炭纤维处理腐植酸废水

采用活性碳纤维处理腐植酸模拟废水,通过静态吸附和动态吸附的研究,测定吸附等温线和动态吸附曲线;研究不同温度、不同活性炭纤维、不同pH值和流速对处理效果的影响。     

厌氧消化过程中温度骤降对酸化活动抑制性的研究

对于厌氧消化过程的酸化阶段,反应器内温度的快速下降将对碳水化合物的分解和产酸活动产生明显抑制。当温度依次从30℃下降到25、20和15℃时,反应器内厌氧微生物数量呈缓慢减少趋势,受温度影响不大;但是,厌氧酸化过程却明显表现出受到每一次骤然降温的影响,其碳水化合物的平均去除率随温度骤降从92%依次降低为84%、72%和25%,且最低分别达到78%、52%和10%。研究还表明,随着温度的骤降,厌氧酸化活动将立即受到强烈抑制,并需要一定的时间来恢复以适应发酵温度的改变。     

生物炭对塿土土壤温室气体及土壤理化性质的影响

通过田间小区试验,分别向塿土土壤中添加0、20、40、60、80 t·hm~(-2)的苹果果树枝条生物炭后,分析了生物炭对土壤温度、土壤团聚体、NO_3~--N、NH_4~+-N、微生物量碳以及土壤温室气体排放的影响.结果表明,生物炭可以缓解土壤温度的变化,增加土壤大团聚体的数量,尤其是5 mm、5~2 mm和1~0.5 mm的团聚体数量.与对照相比,随着生物炭施用量的增加,土壤NO_3~--N、NH_4~+-N、微生物量碳分别增加了4.9%~33.9%、9.1%~41.1%和11.8%~38.5%.本研究中生物炭对土壤温室气排放的影响主要表现为:添加生物炭后,土壤CO_2的排放量以及CH_4的吸收汇分别增加了6.73%~23.35%和3.62%~14.17%;施用20 t·hm~(-2)和40 t·hm~(-2)的生物炭降低了土壤N_2O的排放和综合增温潜势(GWP),而当生物炭施用量大于等于60 t·hm~(-2)时反而增加了土壤N_2O的排放和综合增温潜势(GWP).说明生物炭作为一种土壤改良剂和碳减排剂,能够改善土壤质量,提高土壤肥力,提高农田土壤增汇减排的作用,此外,选择合适的生物炭施用量至关重要.