基于DEMATEL方法的海运行为形成因子影响关系分析

为揭示并量化海运人因可靠性分析(HRA)中行为形成因子(PSF)间复杂的影响关系,采用DEMATEL方法对航海人员值班任务中9个PSF的依赖关系进行建模和分析,并验证该方法的有效性。结果表明:船上组织的完善程度、驾驶台班组成员的合作质量、可用时间等PSF在系统中的作用大;船上组织的完善程度、人机界面(MMI)与运行支持的完善性、值班区间以及培训和准备的充分性4个PSF为原因因素,驾驶台班组成员的合作质量、同时出现的目标任务数量、可用时间、船上工作及船舶航行条件和操作规程/计划的可用性5个PSF为结果因素。安全管理人员应针对作用大或原因因素中的PSF制定安全管理措施,改善情景环境,提高人因可靠性。     

Emergent conservation outcomes of shared risk perception in human-wildlife systems

Human perception of risks related to economic damages caused by nearby wildlife can be transmitted through social networks. Understanding how sharing risk information within a human community alters the spatial dynamics of human-wildlife interactions has important implications for the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. We developed an agent-based model that simulates farmer livelihood decisions and activities in an agricultural landscape shared with a population of a generic wildlife species (wildlife-human interactions in shared landscapes [WHISL]). In the model, based on risk perception and economic information, farmers decide how much labor to allocate to farming and whether and where to exclude wildlife from their farms (e.g., through fencing, trenches, or vegetation thinning). In scenarios where the risk perception of farmers was strongly influenced by other farmers, exclusion of wildlife was widespread, resulting in decreased quality of wildlife habitat and frequency of wildlife damages across the landscape. When economic losses from encounters with wildlife were high, perception of risk increased and led to highly synchronous behaviors by farmers in space and time. Interactions between wildlife and farmers sometimes led to a spillover effect of wildlife damage displaced from socially and spatially connected communities to less connected neighboring farms. The WHISL model is a useful conservation-planning tool because it provides a test bed for theories and predictions about human-wildlife dynamics across a range of different agricultural landscapes.     

Priority areas for conservation of and research focused on terrestrial vertebrates

Effective conservation policies require comprehensive knowledge of biodiversity. However, knowledge shortfalls still remain, hindering possibilities to improve decision making and built such policies. During the last 2 decades, conservationists have made great efforts to allocate resources as efficiently as possible but have rarely considered the idea that if research investments are also strategically allocated, it would likely fill knowledge gaps while simultaneously improving conservation actions. Therefore, prioritizing areas where both conservation and research actions could be conducted becomes a critical endeavor that can further maximize return on investment. We used Zonation, a conservation planning tool and geographical distributions of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles to suggest and compare priority areas for conservation and research of terrestrial vertebrates worldwide. We also evaluated the degree of human disturbance in both types of priority areas by describing the value of the human footprint index within such areas. The spatial concordance between priority conservation and research areas was low: 0.36% of the world's land area. In these areas, we found it would be possible to protect almost half of the currently threatened species and to gather information on nearly 42% of data-deficient (DD) species. We also found that 6199 protected areas worldwide are located in such places, although only 35% of them have strict conservation purposes. Areas of consensus between conservation and research areas represent an opportunity for simultaneously conserving and acquiring knowledge of threatened and DD species of vertebrates. Although the picture is not the most encouraging, joint conservation and research efforts are possible and should be fostered to save vertebrate species from our own ignorance and extinction.     

The need for spatially explicit quantification of benefits in invasive‐species management

Worldwide, invasive species are a leading driver of environmental change across terrestrial, marine, and freshwater environments and cost billions of dollars annually in ecological damages and economic losses. Resources limit invasive‐species control, and planning processes are needed to identify cost‐effective solutions. Thus, studies are increasingly considering spatially variable natural and socioeconomic assets (e.g., species persistence, recreational fishing) when planning the allocation of actions for invasive‐species management. There is a need to improve understanding of how such assets are considered in invasive‐species management. We reviewed over 1600 studies focused on management of invasive species, including flora and fauna. Eighty‐four of these studies were included in our final analysis because they focused on the prioritization of actions for invasive species management. Forty‐five percent (n = 38) of these studies were based on spatial optimization methods, and 35% (n = 13) accounted for spatially variable assets. Across all 84 optimization studies considered, 27% (n = 23) explicitly accounted for spatially variable assets. Based on our findings, we further explored the potential costs and benefits to invasive species management when spatially variable assets are explicitly considered or not. To include spatially variable assets in decision‐making processes that guide invasive‐species management there is a need to quantify environmental responses to invasive species and to enhance understanding of potential impacts of invasive species on different natural or socioeconomic assets. We suggest these gaps could be filled by systematic reviews, quantifying invasive species impacts on native species at different periods, and broadening sources and enhancing sharing of knowledge.     

成品油站场工艺管道风险辨识与评价

为保障成品油站场工艺管道的安全平稳运行,在充分辨识风险因素的前提下,提出了一种基于KENT法和RBI的风险评价方法。首先,以风险机理分析为基础,采用SHEL模型从导致风险上升的直接原因（风险内因）和间接原因（风险外因）2个角度辨识了风险因素,并细化各因素指标项;然后借鉴KENT法,对各指标项进行评分量化;依据RBI法,采用风险外因体系修正风险内因体系的方式确定失效可能性;综合环境后果、人员后果与商业后果,明确失效后果的评价体系与计算方法;最后,结合失效可能性与失效后果进行风险评价,从风险等级和风险排序2方面为检维修决策提供依据。应用表明:该评价方法便于工艺管道风险评价的基层实施,可为基于风险的检维修决策提供有效技术支撑。     

基于模糊评价的VDT系统搜索策略绩效形成机理研究

为优化视觉显示终端（VDT）结构性搜索界面的布局,提高作业绩效和安全,设计了VDT系统搜索实验,构建了搜索目标位置在4个主观偏好指标下的Pythagorean模糊集决策矩阵,运用交互式多准则决策（TODIM）法计算各目标位置偏好的总体优势度并排序;同时对VDT系统搜索实验中各目标位置的绩效进行方差分析并排序,分析系统搜索策略下作业者对目标位置的主观偏好与绩效之间的关系。研究结果表明:基于系统搜索策略的VDT作业绩效在不同目标位置差异显著;导致绩效差异的根本原因是作业者对搜索目标位置的主观偏好度,而不是搜索目标的位置属性;除中心区域外,偏好度高的区域搜索绩效要优于偏好度低的区域。     

高层官员地震应急演练中应急决策行为的质性分析

为了研究高层官员在非常规突发事件应对中的决策行为,通过地震应急演练,从决策建议的影响、决策对象的选择与优先级排序等方面对决策样本进行质性分析。应用NVivo12软件对某次高层官员参与的特大地震应急决策演练中采集的45份决策样本,在结构化处理的基础上确定编码标准,遍历样本并对应急决策编码,得到观测数据并进行分析。研究结果表明,演练中的高层官员决策行为有以下3方面特征:受决策建议影响明显;在灾情、舆情以及基础设施等方面有自主决策;不同层级间对决策权重排序存在显著差异。     

城市轨道交通车站应急疏散方案决策研究

城市轨道交通应急疏散方案决策是1个多准则决策问题,传统方法难以将决策者的偏好与风险倾向纳入考虑,因此引入累积前景理论与集对分析,得到1种结合累积前景理论与集对分析的决策方法。该方法考虑决策者面对风险时的态度,计算出方案的累积前景值;引入集对分析,通过时间权重与准则权重将前景值与集对势联系起来,计算出方案综合集对势,并利用其大小对备选方案进行排序;最后通过实例计算以及对权重的扰动分析,验证了方法有效性。     

秋色叶树种在园林造景中的应用

秋色叶树种是园林造景中重要的观赏树种之一，我国秋色叶树木资源十分丰富，开发利用秋色叶树木资源对我国园林建设具有重要意义．作者分析了秋色叶树种内涵，主要树种的性状、特征、观赏价值及在我国自然秋色景观中的应用等，初步探讨了它们在城市园林造景中应用方式、应用前景，提出了秋色叶树种选择应用的原则及应注意的问题．