城市水土资源利用碳排放系统动力学仿真研究——以天津市为例

为实现城市低碳可持续发展,分析土地利用、水资源利用、经济发展、人口增长及能源消费与城市碳排放的相互反馈机制,以构建城市水土资源利用碳排放模型.利用系统动力学建模方法,构建城市水土资源利用碳排放系统动力学模型,模拟预测天津市水土资源利用碳排放量变化趋势,分析不同因素对水土资源利用碳排放量的影响,设置并对比不同综合减排方案的减排效果.结果 表明:构建的城市水土资源利用碳排放模型有效;若系统按现有趋势发展,天津市水土资源净碳排放量在2020-2030年将保持逐年上升趋势;经济快速发展、人口加速增长能显著提高水土资源利用碳排放量,土地利用结构优化、产业结构优化、产业能源效率提升是实现水土资源利用减排的有效途径,产业节水发展对减少城市水土资源利用碳排放作用较小,但由于水资源是城市发展的限制性因素,仍应引起足够重视;在水资源约束和经济稳步发展的前提下,通过实施水土资源利用碳排放综合调控方案,天津于2025年左右水土资源利用碳排放达峰.未来城市发展应主动优化土地利用结构和产业结构,推动产业实现低碳绿色发展,同时重视水资源底线的约束作用.     

基于AcciMap模型的化工事故致因定量分析方法研究

为分析化工事故致因因素间的相互关系,有效地预防和控制风险,提出了一种基于AcciMap模型的事故致因定量分析方法.首先,基于AcciMap模型定性分析事故致因;然后运用灰色DEMATEL-ISM方法对事故致因进行多级递阶层次结构划分;运用MICMAC方法计算各致因的驱动力和依赖性以划分属性类别;最后将所提出的方法运用于江苏响水"3·21"特别重大事故分析.结论与事故调查报告契合.研究表明:政府政策不当、监管机构失察、企业与第三方机构违法违规经营等是事故的核心致因因素;化工事故的防控应从企业、第三方机构和政府等方面同时进行,有效控制本质致因和过渡致因是防止系统失效的关键;灰色DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC方法与AcciMap模型相结合能够有效探讨事故致因的属性特征和作用规律,是AcciMap模型的有益补充.     

水资源系统风险构成及其评价——以北京市为例

论文在综合考虑系统属性、风险过程后,基于致险、承险因子及损害程度构建了水资源系统风险的评价指标体系及模型。该指标体系由4层次共20个指标构成,能更好地表征风险的产生和构成。评价模型包括参数计算与风险分级,能简便计算风险参数及因子贡献率并进行相应的风险级别划分。随后运用上述指标体系及模型,评价了北京市面临的水资源系统风险,结果表明主要致险因子是缺水率(0.426 1),主要的承险因子是水资源保障程度(0.647 6);若单考虑致险情况下的风险,北京市面临57.13%的致险率,在综合考虑水资源承险能力后得到风险为26.97%,显示北京市能较好应对水资源系统风险,但仍受约束性风险限制,可通过开源节流、调整产业结构及规范水资源管理来应对。     

太湖流域不同管理模式的社会经济环境系统演化模拟

基于复杂自适应系统理论构建了社会经济环境系统模型,采用计算实验方法模拟分析了太湖流域在经济优先和水环境保护优先2种管理模式下的动态演化过程,得到了农业与工业经济发展水平、就业状况和水环境改善情况的演化规律.结果表明,在综合考虑社会、经济、水环境的基础上,2种管理模式均能在一定程度上实现经济和就业的增长,同时改善水环境.环境保护优先模式虽能有效保护水环境,却会牺牲部分经济发展和就业保证.不同地区在演化过程中表现出差异性,常州和湖州经济获得较快增长;苏州、上海在就业方面做出较大贡献;无锡和苏州水环境改善效果最为明显.     

亚运时段广州大气污染物来源数值模拟研究

利用嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统(Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System,NAQPMS)研究2006年亚运时段广州的空气质量状况,同时结合污染源追踪方法,分析珠三角各城市的源排放对广州全市、广州二环以内市区、广州6个亚运加强观测站的污染物浓度贡献.结果表明,NAQPMS模式能较好地反映广州各污染物(NO2、SO2、PM10)浓度的变化;广州全市、广州市区、6个亚运加强观测站的污染物最主要来源于本地排放,而周边城市以东莞的贡献最大.3个源受体中,广州市区受本地排放的影响最显著,来自本地的NO2、SO2、PM10的月均贡献率分别为89.5%、75.4%、86.7%;东莞则对6个亚运加强观测站的影响最为突出,其NO2、SO2、PM10的月均贡献率达9.3%、23.8%、21.7%,而日最大贡献率高达19.3%、40.2%、48.7%.因此在大力削减广州本地污染排放的同时,对周边城市特别是东莞实施区域联防联控,将能有效改善亚运场馆附近的空气质量.     

Degradation of acid fuchsine by a modified electro-Fenton system with magnetic stirring as oxygen supplying

The current modified electro-Fenton system was designed to develop a more convenient and e cient undivided system for practical wastewater treatment. The system adopted a cathode portion that employed magnetic stirring instead of common oxygen gas di usion or gas sparging to supply oxygen gas for the electrolyte solution. Key factors influencing the cathode fabrication and activity were investigated. The degradation of acid fuchsine with a self-made graphite-polytetrafluorethylene cathode was studied using a spectrophotometer. It was found that the cathode generated hydrogen peroxide with high current e ciency and the hydrogen peroxide yield of the cathode did not decay after 10 times reuse. With the Pt anode at a ferrous ion concentration of 0.5 mmol/L, a pH of 3, and using magnetic stirring, dye decolorization could be rapidly accomplished but the destruction of benzene rings and intermediates was fairly di cult. With a Fe anode, dye degradation was more complete.     

Modeling the e ects of constructed wetland on nonpoint source pollution control and reservoir water quality improvement

This article describes the integrated modeling approach for planning the size and the operation of constructed wetlands for maximizing retention of nonpoint source pollutant loads and reservoir water-quality improvement at a catchment scale. The experimental field-scale wetland systems (four sets, 0.88 ha each) have been in operation since 2002, where water depth was maintained at 30–50 cm and hydraulic loading rate was at 6.3–18.8 cm/day. The wetland system was found to be adequate for treating polluted stream water with stable removal e ciency even during the winter. The integrated modeling system (modified-BASINS) was applied to the Seokmoon estuarine reservoir watershed and calibrated with monitoring data from constructed wetland, stream, and reservoir. The calibrated integrated modeling system estimated that constructing wetlands on 0.5% (about 114 ha) of the watershed area at the mouth of reservoir could reduce 11.61% and 13.49% of total external nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively. It also might improve the nitrogen and phosphorus concentration of the reservoir by 9.69% and 16.48%, respectively. The study suggested that about 0.1%–1.0% of the watershed area should be allocated for constructed wetland to meet specified water-quality standards for the estuarine reservoir at the polder area where land use planning is relatively less complicated.     

Evaluation of mercury speciation and removal through air pollution control devices of a 190 MW boiler

Air pollution control devices (APCDs) are installed at coal-fired power plants for air pollutant regulation. Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) and wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems have the co-benefits of air pollutant and mercury removal. Configuration and operational conditions of APCDs and mercury speciation a ect mercury removal e ciently at coal-fired utilities. The Ontario Hydro Method (OHM) recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was used to determine mercury speciation simultaneously at five sampling locations through SCR-ESP-FGD at a 190 MW unit. Chlorine in coal had been suggested as a factor a ecting the mercury speciation in flue gas; and low-chlorine coal was purported to produce less oxidized mercury (Hg2+) and more elemental mercury (Hg0) at the SCR inlet compared to higher chlorine coal. SCR could oxidize elemental mercury into oxidized mercury when SCR was in service, and oxidation e ciency reached 71.0%. Therefore, oxidized mercury removal e ciency was enhanced through a wet FGD system. In the non-ozone season, about 89.5%–96.8% of oxidized mercury was controlled, but only 54.9%–68.8% of the total mercury was captured through wet FGD. Oxidized mercury removal e ciency was 95.9%–98.0%, and there was a big di erence in the total mercury removal e ciencies from 78.0% to 90.2% in the ozone season. Mercury mass balance was evaluated to validate reliability of OHM testing data, and the ratio of mercury input in the coal to mercury output at the stack was from 0.84 to 1.08.     

Granulation of filamentous microorganisms in a sequencing batch reactor with saline wastewater

Proliferation of filamentous microorganisms frequently leads to operational failure for activate sludge systems. In this study, it was found that filamentous microorganisms could grow in compact granular structure with 5% sodium chloride in the substrate. In the early period of experiment, coccoid and rode-like bacteria predominated in the yellowish-brown granules, and later the white and the black granules were developed by filamentous microorganisms. The filamentous granules exhibited low porosity and fas...     

2种有机污染物对鲈鱼生化标志物系统的影响及作用评价

实验生态条件下筛选了鲈鱼的一组生化标志物组成生化标志物系统,研究其对不同有机污染胁迫的响应差异.将鲈鱼分别暴露于2种有机污染物:0.1 mg/L、1 mg/L的十二烷基苯磺酸钠(SDBS)和2μg/L、20μg/L的苯并[a]芘(B[a]P),研究长时间(18 d)、亚致死污染胁迫下鲈鱼生化标志物系统各组分:肝脏组织抗氧化酶中的超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)、谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶(Gpx)、谷胱甘肽(GSH)、谷胱甘肽硫转酶(GST)以及诱导型一氧化氮合酶(iNOS)和脑组织中乙酰胆碱脂酶(AChE)活性的变化,同期检测了热激蛋白70(Hsp70)表达的变化,并对所得到的结果进行了主成分分析(PCA).结果表明,①与未受胁迫的对照组相比,B[a]P胁迫能够显著诱导鲈鱼体内的SOD、GST、Gpx活性以及GSH含量的变化(p0.05),但对其它几种酶的活性影响并不明显;SDBS胁迫对CAT、Gpx、iNOS和AChE活性的诱导作用明显,但对SOD、GST和GSH的影响较小.Gpx是对2种污染物胁迫响应最灵敏的一种生化标志物.②同时测定了不同胁迫条件下鲈鱼血细胞Hsp70表达的影响,结果发现其在SDBS胁迫组中的表达始终高于对照组,而B[a]P在胁迫前期能诱导Hsp70表达升高,以后逐渐下降至对照水平.③鲈鱼的生化标志物系统的不同组分对不同种类的污染胁迫响应有明显差异,对结果进行主成分分析(PCA)后发现,基于PCA和生化标志物系统的研究方法能有效区分不同污染因子的作用,可能在海洋环境污染的早期、预警性评价中具有良好的应用前景.