THRESHOLD TIME SERIES MODELING OF TWO ICELANDIC RIVERFLOW SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports our experience in building time series models which connect the flows in two Icelandic rivers with the meteorological variables of precipitation and temperature. Two rivers with different hydrological characteristics were studied. In areas where precipitation may be either in the form of rain or snow linear models are inadequate to describe the relationship between the river and the meteorological variables. The methodology of threshold models recently developed seems to be well suited for taking into account the sharp difference in the relationship according to whether it is freezing or not. The possibility of identifying an alternative threshold variable is also explored.     

三峡库区非线性延迟的环境效应及其防治对策

介绍了非线性延迟的环境效应的概念、危害及其预测和防治对策。针对三峡库区的污染现状，与浙江千岛湖（新安江水库）建库40年后蓝藻水华暴发的环境状况比较，强调三峡水库局部水域可能存在人为富营养化污染引起的非线性延迟的环境效应，特别是水库蓄水后库区支流香溪河水域蓝藻水华暴发的风险性极大；根据三峡水库毗邻武陵山汞矿带高汞背景区，燃煤的硫和汞含量较高，以及库区酸沉降和汞污染状况较为严重的状况，提出库区存在汞甲基化和酸沉降引起的非线性环境效应。讨论了相应这些效应的控制对策和措施，并建议现在充分重视这些非线性环境效应，在库区生态环境建设中要考虑这些影响的防治措施。     

SIMULATING THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED PRECIPITATION ON GROUND WATER AND STREAMFLOW IN THE NEBRASKA SAND HILLS1

ABSTRACT: The Nebraska Sand Hills have a unique hydrologic system with very little runoff and thick aquifers that constantly supply water to rivers, lakes, and wetlands. A ground water flow model was developed to determine the interactions between ground water and streamflow and to simulate the changes in ground water systems by reduced precipitation. The numerical modeling method includes a water balance model for the vadose zone and MOD‐FLOW for the saturated zone. The modeling results indicated that, between 1979 and 1990, 13 percent of the annual precipitation recharged to the aquifer and annual ground water loss by evapotranspiration (ET) was only about one‐fourth of this recharge. Ground water discharge to rivers accounts for about 96 percent of the streamflow in the Dismal and Middle Loup rivers. When precipitation decreased by half the average amount of the 1979 to 1990 period, the average decline of water table over the study area was 0.89 m, and the streamflow was about 87 percent of the present rate. This decline of the water table results in significant reductions in ET directly from ground water and so a significant portion of the streamflow is maintained by capture of the salvaged ET.     

华北地区干旱指数的确定及其应用

利用标准化降水指数建立了华北地区于旱指数计算公式，并对华北地区1997年的干旱和历年于温期进行了计算和分析，取得了较好的结果，试验表明该指数能运用于干旱监测业务。     

湖南汛期降水分区和变化规律的探讨

利用湖南５２站汛期降水资料,根据聚类分析方法,进行降水分区,结果共分为Ⅰ区,Ⅲ区（湘北）Ⅲ区（湘东）,Ⅳ区（湘中）和Ⅴ区（湘南）等５个区域,能反映地理位置和地形对降水的影响。然后,通过统计分析,讨论了各区域汛期降水的年际变化趋势,结果表明,Ⅱ区（湘北）汛期降水的年际变化最大;同时,根据各区域汛期降水的距平资料,探讨了它们的变化规律,结果显示,基本上都呈现出上升－下降－上升的特征,只有Ⅴ区（湘南）稍     

四川盆地降水酸化范围及发展趋势予测

本文通过对四川盆地内二氧化硫排放源的统计调查分类、建立一种简便而较实用的数学模式,计算盆地内现阶段降水酸化范围及预测其发展趋势。结果表明:在现阶段,盆地内降水酸化面积达到10万km~2,重酸化区为3.2万km~2,预计到2000年时,降水酸化区将超过15万km~2,重酸化区也将达6万km~2以上。     

SURFACE WATER RESOURCES OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Of the 1,700 streams located in the state of Florida, the northwest area contains approximately 1,000 streams and three of the five largest rivers, namely the Apalachicola, the Choctawhatchee, and the Escambia. This 11,200 square-mile area contains 11 drainage basins and receives an average annual rainfall which ranges from 53 inches in the east to 67 inches in the west. Basin water yields range from a high of 3,376 cfs (2,180 mgd) to a low of 672 cfs (434 mgd). Individual basin outflows range from a high of 25,743 cfs (16,630 mgd) to a low of 844 cfs (545 mgd). Approximately 67 percent of the total northwest Florida basin outflows to the Gulf of Mexico, or 36,805 cfs (23,766 mgd), are received in the form of surface water inflows from Alabama and Georgia. In the absence of any interstate mechanism for water management between Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, the basin outflow estimates presented in this paper depend greatly on the upstream usage in the neighboring states. The establishment of a tri-state water management program could eliminate the uncertainty involved in predicting water availability in northwest Florida and ensure sufficient quantities of flows in the streams.     

RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION AS A FUNCTION OF PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY1

ABSTRACT: This research examines what is hypothesized as a critical factor in reservoir sedimentation - precipitation variability. The coefficient of variation for annual precipitation, computed for the period relating to sedimentation, is regressed against sediment yields for several reservoirs over a wide range of environmental settings. A significant linear relationship results, and when precipitation variability is combined with several additional variables available from reservoir summary sheets, almost 83% of the total variation in sediment yield is accounted for. It is suggested that the coefficient of variation for annual precipitation fulfills a direct process role when modeling reservoir sedimentation much more effectively than annual precipitation or runoff.     

CHEMICAL PRECIPITATION-COAGULATION FOR ORGANIC COLOR REMOVAL FROM GOUNDWATERS1

ABSTRACT: Many wells produce water that is highly colored by organic substances. Colored water may cause aesthetic, economic, and health problems for the cities using it as a municipal supply. Characterization of water from a number of wells showed that the color causing compounds were hydroxylated aromatic carboxylic acids which were precipitated below pH 4.5 and were almost completely ionized above pH 4.5. Through jar tests, a chemical precipitation-coagulation treatment system was developed. The optimal sequence of chemical addition was alum first, followed by pH adjustment and addition of a polyelectrolyte. Rapid mix tests demonstrated the need for a reaction period after alum and after acid addition, and that the rapid mix time controlled floc size for a given flocculation period. Flocculation tests, varying both the floc time and mean velocity gradient, G, showed that an optimum G exists for each floc time and that the residual color decreased with decreasing values of velocity gradient.     

UNCERTAINTIES IN ESTIMATING THE WATER BALANCE OF LAKES1

ABSTRACT: Evaluation of hydrologic methodology used in a number of water balance studies of lakes in the United States shows that most of these studies calculate one or more terms of the budget as the residual. A literature review was made of studies in which the primary purpose was error analysis of hydrologic measurement and interpretation. Estimates of precipitation can have a wide range of error, depending on the gage placement, gage spacing, and areal averaging technique. Errors in measurement of individual storms can be as high as 75 percent. Errors in short term averages are commonly in the 15-30 percent range, but decrease to about 5 percent or less for annual estimates. Errors in estimates of evaporation can also vary widely depending on instrumentation and methodology. The energy budget is the most accurate method of calculating evaporation; errors are in the 10–15 percent range. If pans are used that are located a distance from the lake of interest, errors can be considerable. Annual pan-to-lake coefficients should not be used for monthly estimates of evaporation because they differ from the commonly used coefficient of 0.7 by more than 100 percent. Errors in estimates of stream discharge are often considered to be within 5 percent. If the measuring section, type of flow profile, and other considerations, such as stage discharge relationship, are less than ideal errors in estimates of stream discharge can be considerably greater than 5 percent. Errors in estimating overland (nonchannelized) flow have not been evaluated, and in most lake studies this component is not mentioned. Comparison of several lake water balances in which the risdual consists solely of errors in measurement, shows that such a residual, if interpreted as ground water, can differ from an independent estimate of ground water by more than 100 percent.