The research of market structures for remanufactured products

The rapid development of technology has made it easier to distribute products directly, and many enterprises excel at executing a multi-channel strategy to distribute products. The introduction of direct channel adds a new competition dimension to the enterprises. This paper considers three market channel structures: R-Channel, D-Channel and H-Channel. In R-Channel, both new products and remanufactured products are sold through a retailer. In D-Channel, new products are sold through retailers and remanufactured products are sold directly to consumers. In H-Channel, new products are sold through retailers, while remanufactured products through dual channel. Using the game theory, we obtain and analyse the equilibrium prices, market demands and the profits gain under these three settings. At the same time, the influence of consumers’ willingness to pay on the environment performance is researched. Our results show that the manufacturer prefers H-Channel. By introducing the direct channel the manufacturer is always economically better off, but it is not for the retailer. The numerical simulation also confirms the theoretical analysis and shows that H-Channel has advantages of economic benefit and environmental performance. It is feasible for practical application.     

Assessing the Effectiveness of Winter Cover Crops for Controlling Agricultural Nutrient Losses

A nutrient loss reduction strategy is necessary to guide the efforts of improving water quality downstream of an agricultural watershed. In this study, the effectiveness of two winter cover crops, namely cereal rye and annual ryegrass, is explored as a loss reduction strategy in a watershed that ultimately drains into a water supply reservoir. Using a coupled optimization-watershed model, optimal placements of the cover crops were identified that would result in the tradeoffs between nitrate-N losses reduction and adoption levels. Analysis of the 10%, 25%, 50%, and 75% adoption levels extracted from the optimal tradeoffs showed that the cover crop placements would provide annual nitrate-N loss reductions of 3.0%–3.7%, 7.8%–8.8%, 15%–17.5%, and 20.9%–24.3%, respectively. In addition, for the same adoption levels (i.e., 10%–75%), sediment (1.8%–17.7%), and total phosphorus losses (0.8%–8.6%) could be achieved. Results also indicate that implementing each cover crop on all croplands of the watershed could cause annual water yield reduction of at least 4.8%, with greater than 28% in the months of October and November. This could potentially be detrimental to the storage volume of the downstream reservoir, especially in drought years, if cover crops are adopted in most of the reservoir's drainage area. Evaluating water yield impacts, particularly in periods of low flows, is thus critical if cover crops are to be considered as best management practices in water supply watersheds.     

博弈论在弹道导弹核潜艇威慑能力定性评估中的应用

以国际政治经济学领域常用的博弈论为基础,建立了不同情况下的弹道导弹核潜艇核威慑能力的定性分析模型,其核心是分析威慑双方的策略互动,以便能够更加客观地对弹道导弹核潜艇的威慑能力进行评估。针对信息完全和信息缺失的情况,博弈论模型能够简便快捷地对弹道导弹核潜艇的核威慑效果进行评估,并能够提出提高潜艇威慑效果的具体措施。     

基于系统动力学的食品企业安全生产监管博弈研究

为了研究食品安全生产及监管的内在机理、影响因素及监管模式,采用演化博弈论方法建立了政府监管部门与食品企业之间的博弈模型,运用复制动态方程和系统动力学方法深入分析了食品安全生产中相关主体的决策选择。结果表明:食品企业在追求利益最大化的前提下须主动重视食品安全问题,食品企业的策略选择受安全生产投入成本、处罚成本和声誉收益的影响;政府监管部门的监管行为受监管成本、外部负效益及社会成本等多方因素的影响。因此,增大监管部门惩处力度、降低监管成本、完善社会公众监督机制、强化声誉效应是食品安全问题得以解决的有力保障。     

幼儿环境教育实施策略的探讨

开展幼儿环境教育实践的目的是让幼儿成为环境的主人,引导他们自主地欣赏,观察日常生活中具体的环境要素和环境问题,使他们懂得我们周围的环境与人类的一切活动息息相关,并使幼儿逐步养成与环境友善的行为习惯。     

基于博弈赋权物元和证据理论的无线闭塞中心风险评估*

为客观地对无线闭塞中心进行风险评估,建立基于博弈赋权物元和证据理论的评估模型,根据故障树分析法识别的风险因子构建评估指标体系,采用博弈论思想对直觉模糊层次分析法计算的主观权重和熵权法计算的客观权重进行最优组合,进而确定综合权重。运用物元理论和证据理论确定各指标的风险等级和系统整体风险等级,并通过实例分析对评估模型进行对比验证。结果表明:无线闭塞中心整体风险等级为“可容许的”,与实际情况相符。其中,系统外部通信故障的风险等级为“不期望的”,需要对其相关设备加强风险控制。     

系统操作者与管理者行为的博弈演化与收益分析*

为研究工程项目系统中,操作者安全行为与管理者奖惩行为的相互博弈情况,确定操作者和管理者收益,提出博弈演化与收益分析方法。操作者代表系统实际使用者,行为包括安全和不安全行为;管理者代表系统管理者和所有者,行为包括奖励和惩罚行为。确定方法的基本参数;研究博弈演化过程的博弈逻辑关系,从悲观和乐观角度研究二者不同行为相互作用后的收益关系,给出操作者收益和管理者收益的逻辑表达式。结果表明:方法能得到博弈过程演化结果,同时能根据收益结果表达式判断博弈胜出方。     

基于智能优化算法的河流水质模型参数的优化简

为探索河流水质模型参数新的求解方法，根据有限的实测数据，分别应用免疫进化优化算法和免疫进化优选的捕食搜索算法，对河流水质模型计算公式中的多参数进行优化。将优化得到的计算公式用于国内外若干河流的河段中DO浓度值的拟合，并与实测结果进行了比较。结果表明，将免疫进化优化算法或免疫进化优选的捕食搜索算法优化得到的水质模型参数精度不仅较高，而且相对稳定，从而为河流水质模型参数的优化提供了一种新方法。     

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.     

Seed plant phylogenetic diversity and species richness in conservation planning within a global biodiversity hotspot in eastern Asia

One of the main goals of conservation biology is to understand the factors shaping variation in biodiversity across the planet. This understanding is critical for conservation planners to be able to develop effective conservation strategies. Although many studies have focused on species richness and the protection of rare and endemic species, less attention has been paid to the protection of the phylogenetic dimension of biodiversity. We explored how phylogenetic diversity, species richness, and phylogenetic community structure vary in seed plant communities along an elevational gradient in a relatively understudied high mountain region, the Dulong Valley, in southeastern Tibet, China. As expected, phylogenetic diversity was well correlated with species richness among the elevational bands and among communities. At the community level, evergreen broad‐leaved forests had the highest levels of species richness and phylogenetic diversity. Using null model analyses, we found evidence of nonrandom phylogenetic structure across the region. Evergreen broad‐leaved forests were phylogenetically overdispersed, whereas other vegetation types tended to be phylogenetically clustered. We suggest that communities with high species richness or overdispersed phylogenetic structure should be a focus for biodiversity conservation within the Dulong Valley because these areas may help maximize the potential of this flora to respond to future global change. In biodiversity hotspots worldwide, we suggest that the phylogenetic structure of a community may serve as a useful measure of phylogenetic diversity in the context of conservation planning.