Forecasting China’s primary energy demand based on an improved AI model

An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting results. The ARDL bounds analysis is first employed to select the appropriate input variables of the energy demand model. After the existence of a cointegration relationship in the model is confirmed, the AGA is then employed to optimize the coefficients of both linear and quadratic forms with gross domestic product, economic structure, urbanization, and technological progress as the input variables. On the basis of historical annual data from 1985 to 2015, the simulation results indicate that the proposed model has greater accuracy and reliability than conventional optimization methods. The predicted results of the proposed model also demonstrate that China will demand approximately 4.9, 5.6, and 6.1 billion standard tons of coal equivalent in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively.     

基于生态系统服务供需的雄安新区生态安全格局构建

生态安全格局构建是保障区域生态安全的关键。沿用“源地识别—阻力面构建—廊道提取”的生态安全格局构建模式，选取粮食供给、产水量、土壤保持、固碳释氧和生境维持5项生态系统服务供给指标，以及人口密度、地均GDP和土地利用程度3项生态系统服务需求指标，综合生态系统服务供需2方面识别重要生态源地，利用夜间灯光强度进行基本阻力面修正，采用最小累积阻力模型进行生态廊道提取，构建出雄安新区生态安全格局。研究表明:新区生态源地总面积约48433 km2，占新区土地总面积的313%，主要分布于新区西北部旱地和东南部水域；新区生态阻力系数空间分布较为破碎，大部分区域阻力值较低，间或分布高阻力值；新区生态廊道总长度18586 km，呈“Y”字型沿建设用地和水系分布，所处地类主要为旱地。基于生态系统服务供需的生态安全格局构建可为新区规划建设提供参考和借鉴。     

洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

提高快速法测定C OD准确度及精密度的方法

介绍了用快速法测定COD分析中提高准确度及精密度的方法。     

五日生化需氧量测定的影响因素

五日生化需氧量是一种表间接表示水体中有机物含量,是水质监测的一个重要参数。本文对水样的保存、溶解氧、pH值、温度、接种稀释水和稀释度等影响测定五日生化需氧量成败的因素进行探讨,并提出相应的解决方法。     

从碳排放权交易角度谈治理兰州市大气污染的应用研究

随着城市的发展,环境污染问题日益突出,碳排放权交易作为《京都议定书》认定的碳交易机制,在解决环境污染问题上发挥了重要作用。在分析配额型碳交易在美国的成功应用的基础上,针对兰州市的污染现状,构建兰州市碳排放权交易制度来治理大气污染：核定兰州市大气环境容量,确定总量控制目标;确定交易单位;确立碳排放权初始分配机制;制定交易规则,建立监管机构;政府监管并进行相应的惩罚。     

Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union’s carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union（EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario） are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO₂ in Australia,to $17.5/tCO₂ in the EU,and to $10/tCO₂ in China.Though the relative emission reduction（3%） in China is lower than that in the EU（9%） and Australia（18%）,the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide（CO₂） to $12/tCO₂,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU’s and eighty-one percent of Australia’s domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU’s and 0.06%of Australia’s welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China’s industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.     

需求视角的中国能源消费氮氧化物排放研究

基于经济投入产出生命周期评价(EIO-LCA)模型构建了中国1990—2010年能源消费氮氧化物完全排放矩阵,从需求的角度分析了氮氧化物排放在部门和不同需求间的分布结构,并通过情景模拟深入探讨了最终需求结构变化对氮氧化物排放的综合影响和拉动效应,以期探索中国氮氧化物减排的多元化途径.研究结果显示,1990—2010年中国氮氧化物排放总量从878万t上升到2398万t,历年来由工业部门拉动产生的氮氧化物占总量的比重高达70%左右;由最终消费拉动的氮氧化物排放比重逐年下降,资本形成和出口拉动的氮氧化物排放比重逐年上升.氮氧化物排放强度则从47.0 kg·万元-1降至6.0 kg·万元-1,其中,能源和交通部门的排放强度最高.通过情景模拟可以看出,提高最终消费比重,扩大内需有利于氮氧化物总量减排,尤其是对工业部门的减排效果显著.实现氮氧化物总量减排目标,要求在技术进步之外,积极寻求多元减排措施,以强化减排效果,突出能源和交通等重点部门的氮氧化物防治体系建设,并通过扩大内需优化最终需求结构以促进工业部门氮氧化物减排.     

水和废水中化学需氧量测定方法的改进研究

在水的CODcr测定中,将30 ml回流量确定为常规检测回流量,可节省浓硫酸和硫酸银用量50%;将消解回流时间从120 min缩短为30 min,已满足对地表水和各类废水中CODcr的准确测定,可节省水电费用75%以上,含氯水样中Cl-的掩蔽研究表明:按国标法用10倍Cl-重量的HgSO4 掩蔽Cl-,加标(CODcr =100 mg/L)回收率为110%~120%左右,用30~40倍Cl -重量的HgSO4 掩蔽Cl-,加标回收率为100%左右,对HgSO4 掩蔽Cl-的条件和机理作了适当探讨.另外,采用加入H2 SO4-后加入HgSO4 的方法可减少HgSO4 的耗用量70%以上.     

基于生命周期评价的风力发电机碳足迹分析

本文以我国市场占用率最高的2 MW双馈式风力发电机为研究对象,采用生命周期评价(LCA)方法,核算其全生命周期过程的碳足迹和总能量需求,分析风力发电机不同生命周期阶段的环境影响,识别其减碳潜力.研究结果表明,风力发电机生产阶段、运输阶段、运行阶段和废弃处理处置阶段的碳足迹(以CO2-eq计,下同)分别为1701 t、61 t、255 t和-325 t;各生命周期阶段的总能量需求分别为10413 GJ、701 GJ、1561.95 GJ和-1081 GJ.风力发电机的碳足迹和总能量需求主要来源于生产阶段,废弃处理处置阶段材料的回收利用有效的降低了生命周期的碳足迹和总能量需求.生产阶段的碳足迹和总能量需求分别占全生命周期碳足迹和总能量需求的101%和90%;废弃处置阶段对碳足迹和总能量需求的贡献为-19%和-10%.每1k Wh风力发电的碳足迹和总能量需求分别为20.7 g和0.14 MJ,风力发电机的能量回收期为0.79年.敏感性分析表明,风力发电机的质量和废弃处置阶段的金属回收率都是风力发电机总能量需求和碳足迹的影响因素.