GHG emission reductions and costs to achieve Kyoto target

Emission projection and marginal abatement cost curves (MACs) are the central components of any assessment of future carbonmarket, such as CDM (clean development mechanism) potentials, carbon quota price etc. However, they are products of very complex,dynamic systems driven by forces like population growth, economic development, resource endowments, technology progress and so on. The modeling approaches for emission projection and MACs evaluation were summarized, and some major models and their results were compared.Accordingly, reduction and cost requirements to achieve the Kyoto target were estimated. It is concluded that Annex I Parties‘ total reduction requirements range from 503--1304 MtC with USA participation and decrease significantly to 140--612 MtC after USA‘ s withdrawal. Total costs vary from 21--77 BUSD with USA and from 5--36 BUSD without USA if only domestic reduction actions are taken. The costs would sharply reduce while considering the three flexible mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol with domestic actions‘ share in the all mitigation strategies drons to only 0--16%.     

Developing Canada's National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System to Meet the Reporting Requirements of the Kyoto Protocol

The rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere can be reduced by decreasing emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and by increasing the net uptake (or reducing the net loss) of carbon in terrestrial (and aquatic) ecosystems. The Kyoto Protocol addresses both the release and uptake of carbon. Canada is developing a National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System in support of its international obligations to report greenhouse gas sources and sinks. This system employs forest-inventory data, growth and yield information, and statistics on natural disturbances, management actions and land-use change to estimate forest carbon stocks, changes in carbon stocks, and emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases. A key component of the system is the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS). The model is undergoing extensive revisions to enable analyses at four spatial scales (national, provincial, forest management unit and stand) and in annual time steps. The model and the supporting databases can be used to assess carbon-stock changes between 1990 and the present, and to predict future carbon-stock changes based on scenarios of future disturbance rates and management actions.     

Geological CO2 Storage as a Climate Change Mitigation Option

Carbon dioxide (CO₂₎ capture and storage is increasingly being considered as an important climate change mitigation option. This paper explores provisions for including geological CO₂ storage in climate policy. The storage capacity of Norway's Continental Shelf is alone sufficient to store a large share of European CO₂ emissions for many decades. If CO₂ is injected into oil reservoirs there is an additional benefit in terms of enhanced oil recovery. However, there are significant technical and economic challenges, including the large investment in infrastructure required, with related economies of scale properties. Thus CO₂ capture, transportation and storage projects are likely to be more economically attractive if developed on a large scale, which could mean involving two or more nations. An additional challenge is the risk of future leakages from storage sites, where the government must take on a major responsibility. In institutional and policy terms, important challenges are the unsettled status of geological CO₂ storage as a policy measure in the Kyoto Protocol, lack of relevant reporting and verification procedures, and lack of decisions on how the option should be linked to the flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. In terms of competitiveness with expected prices for CO₂ permits under Kyoto Protocol trading, the relatively high costs per tonne of CO₂ stored means that geological CO₂ storage is primarily of interest where enhanced oil recovery is possible. These shortcomings and uncertainties mean that companies and governments today only have weak incentives to venture into geological CO₂ storage.     

Integrated strategies to reduce vulnerability and advance adaptation,mitigation, and sustainable development

Determinants of adaptive and mitigative capacities (e.g., availability of technological options, and access to economic resources, social capital and human capital) largely overlap. Several factors underlying or related to these determinants are themselves indicators of sustainable development (e.g., per capita income; and various public health, education and research indices). Moreover, climate change could exacerbate existing climate-sensitive hurdles to sustainable development (e.g., hunger, malaria, water shortage, coastal flooding and threats to biodiversity) faced specifically by many developing countries. Based on these commonalities, the paper identifies integrated approaches to formulating strategies and measures to concurrently advance adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. These approaches range from broadly moving sustainable development forward (by developing and/or nurturing institutions, policies and infrastructure to stimulate economic development, technological change, human and social capital, and reducing specific barriers to sustainable development) to reducing vulnerabilities to urgent climate-sensitive risks that hinder sustainable development and would worsen with climate change. The resulting sustainable economic development would also help reduce birth rates, which could mitigate climate change and reduce the population exposed to climate change and climate-sensitive risks, thereby reducing impacts, and the demand for adaptation. The paper also offers a portfolio of pro-active strategies and measures consistent with the above approaches, including example measures that would simultaneously reduce pressures on biodiversity, hunger, and carbon sinks. Finally it addresses some common misconceptions that could hamper fuller integration of adaptation and mitigation, including the notions that adaptation may be unsuitable for natural systems, and mitigation should necessarily have primacy over adaptation.

保护臭氧层谈判中的美欧博弈

臭氧层损耗是重要的全球环境问题之一。最早认识到臭氧层危害的美国率先在国内立法控制相关物质,然而另一大经济体——欧共体,在这一方面却行动迟缓。在保护臭氧层的国际谈判中,美欧之间相互妥协,最终达成了对氟氯烃化合物(CFCs)进行限控的《蒙特利尔议定书》。美欧之间的分歧来自国内化工业巨头的影响,国际经济变动影响外交决策。国际环境问题背后隐藏的经济关系与大国的领导作用是影响国际环境合作的主要因素。     

Choosing policy instruments for controlling ozone depleting substances in a developing context: the case of Chile

Chile ratified the Montreal Protocol in 1990 which sets out an agenda for the reduction and then elimination of ozone depleting substances (ODS); however, by 1998 the country had not yet defined a strategy to encourage greater compliance, so that in the same year the National Environmental Commission decided to examine the policy options available. This paper examines the process followed to develop this strategy. As a first step it was necessary to look at how far the implicit policy of "business as usual" could be stretched without jeopardizing Chile's compliance obligations. A second step included quantifying compliance costs and their impact on different policy instruments and so policy choice. Finally, the attitudes of decision-makers or participants were identified, by interviews with officials of the different public agents involved, in order to weigh their views about policy. A strategy was proposed, based on this information, which the Chilean regulator has used, although not in its entirety. The methodology developed could well be useful for developing-country Protocol signatories building their own appropriate compliance strategy.     

Forest Protection and Reforestation in Costa Rica: Evaluation of a Clean Development Mechanism Prototype

/ Costa Rica has recently established a program that provides funds for reforestation and forest protection on private lands, partly through the sale of carbon certificates to industrialized countries. Countries purchasing these carbon offsets hope one day to receive credit against their own commitments to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. Costa Rica has used the proceeds of the sale of carbon offsets to Norway to help finance this forest incentive program, called the Private Forestry Project, which pays thousands of participants to reforest or protect forest on their lands. The Private Forestry Project is accompanied by a monitoring program conducted by Costa Rican forest engineers that seeks to determine net carbon storage accomplished on these lands each year. The Private Forestry Project, which is officially registered as an Activity Implemented Jointly, is a possible model for bundled projects funded by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) established by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. It also serves as an interesting example for the CDM because it was designed by a developing country host-not by an industrialized country investor. Accordingly, it reflects the particular "sustainable development" objectives of the host country or at least the host planners. Early experience in implementing the Private Forestry Project is evaluated in light of the main objectives of the CDM and its precursor-Activities Implemented Jointly. It is concluded that the project appears to meet the criteria of global cost-effectiveness and financing from non-ODA sources. The sustainable development implications of the project are specific to the region and would not necessarily match the ideals of all investing and developing countries. The project may be seen to achieve additional greenhouse gas abatement when compared against some (although not all) baselines.     

Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount

Emissions trading in the European Union (EU), covering the least uncertain emission sources of greenhouse gas emission inventories (CO₂ from combustion and selected industrial processes in large installations), began in 2005. During the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012), the emissions trading between Parties to the Protocol will cover all greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆) and sectors (energy, industry, agriculture, waste, and selected land-use activities) included in the Protocol. In this paper, we estimate the uncertainties in different emissions trading schemes based on uncertainties in corresponding inventories. According to the results, uncertainty in emissions from the EU15 and the EU25 included in the first phase of the EU emissions trading scheme (2005–2007) is ±3% (at 95% confidence interval relative to the mean value). If the trading were extended to CH₄ and N₂O, in addition to CO₂, but no new emissions sectors were included, the tradable amount of emissions would increase by only 2% and the uncertainty in the emissions would range from −4 to +8%. Finally, uncertainty in emissions included in emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol was estimated to vary from −6 to +21%. Inclusion of removals from forest-related activities under the Kyoto Protocol did not notably affect uncertainty, as the volume of these removals is estimated to be small.     

Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.     

《京都》15年后:分阶段减排政策与“绿色悖论”问题

低碳经济的政策分析,通常囿于单一国家层面的局部均衡结果,较少考虑到全球整体行动的外部影响,但从《联合国气候变化框架公约》建立以来的全球一致减排行动,却产生了一些意料之外的负面效果。本文通过梳理《京都议定书》签订以来,全球低碳经济合作中遇到的新挑战,以及碳交易市场的建设状况,采用制度分析与新古典框架下的市场均衡分析方法,讨论了全球一致减排行动所触发的"绿色悖论"问题。研究发现,造成"绿色悖论"的主要原因,一方面是由于国际合作存在制度设计上的缺陷,《京都议定书》及其关键性的附件一,将重点放在如何限制发达工业国的减排设计上,但却忽视了发展中国家在协议期内有可能出现的增排问题,以及发达国家向发展中国家污染转移的碳泄漏等问题;另一方面,当对不可再生资源的使用征税、以及对其替代品进行补贴时,将会导致在当前期对于化石能源的加速开采,并可能导致对同时期的化石燃料替代品的其他可再生资源的开采速度也大幅度加快,造成了在双重加速开采下的全球绿色福利损失以及CO2排放量的急剧升高,化石能源消费与温室气体排放面临到比协议签署前更为严峻,甚至与全球合作减排框架的设计初衷相悖的结果。研究结果表明,非全局性的减排公约和分阶段的减排政策,是造成"绿色悖论"现象的重要条件,缺少了大量发展中国家和一些重要工业国的缔约,使得负面的环境外部性难以克服;同时,减排任务和责任有所区别的分阶段设计,会把在未来行动期内可预见到的更高地化石能源使用成本转嫁到当前的行动期,造成短时间内资源与环境的迅速破坏。但本文的研究也表明,社会最优经济与对可再生能源进行补贴是克服"绿色悖论"现象的两条可行路径,且需要有与其相匹配的政府政策的支持。由此,本文的主要政策建议是,中国需要加强在国际气候公约中的影响力,提升自身话语权;以碳税政策作为发展低碳经济制度设计的主要政策工具;加快技术进步、提高能源使用效率,对于可再生能源研发进行补贴;根据国情不断优化碳税税率,并适时调整与其相匹配的新能源补贴等相关政策。