What happened to the Second World? Earthquakes and postsocialism in Kazakhstan

There is an assumption that with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Second World ceased to exist. Yet the demise of the Communist bloc as a geopolitical reality did not mean that it stopped exerting a defining influence over how people think and behave. This article examines how the postsocialist state in Kazakhstan deals with potential crises such as earthquakes and the extent to which the Soviet legacy still shapes intellectual debates, state structures, and civil society organisations in in that country. Drawing on fieldwork and interviews, this paper re-examines the Second World in its historical context and re-establishes it as a conceptual framework for considering disaster risk reduction in the former Soviet bloc. It argues that it is essential to pay attention to this legacy in Kazakhstan both in policy and practice if earthquake risk reduction is to be made more effective.     

社会资本对山区居民山洪灾害应急避险能力的影响研究*

为研究社会资本对山区居民应急避险能力的影响，在广泛调研的基础上采用结构方程模型分析社会资本与山区居民应急避险能力各要素之间的作用关系。结果表明:个人网络对避险知识和避险意识有显著的正向影响，对避险行为影响不显著；信任与避险知识和避险意识呈显著的正向影响，而与避险行为呈反向影响，但信任可以通过避险知识和避险意识间接正向影响避险行为；互惠对避险知识影响不显著，但互惠与避险意识和避险行为存在显著的正向关系；避险知识和避险意识对避险行为呈显著正向影响，其中避险意识对避险行为影响更为显著。因此可以通过增加山区居民社会资本的方式提高山区居民山洪灾害应急避险能力。     

突发事件下安全舆情的传播与演变——以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例

为明确突发事件安全舆情传播与演变路径，提高企业防控突发事件安全舆情传播风险能力，降低衍生灾害发生概率，在文献分析及事故致因理论基础上，构建突发事件安全舆情传播与演变过程的系统动力学（SD）模型，并运用Vensim软件对以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例进行仿真实验，模拟安全舆情传播与演变动态过程。结果表明:突发事件安全舆情传播与演变主要受事件自身、媒体、相关企业监管层、相关企业执行层4个主体的共同影响，其中事件自身因素起效时间最早，相关企业监管层影响作用最大、维持时间最持久，相关企业执行层影响最直接。     

洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Measuring participation by socially vulnerable groups in hazard mitigation planning,Bertie County,North Carolina

In accordance with the Disaster Mitigation Act, most US counties have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to reduce future disaster losses. HMPs are important as they can be used to proactively assess risk, direct future development, raise awareness and build consensus. Using a population-based sample, we interviewed residents of Bertie County, NC, about their awareness of and participation in the HMP process to determine if demographics, social vulnerability or hazard vulnerability were associated with increased awareness or participation. We also assessed whether these factors were associated with knowledge of policy changes and investments that were adopted in the HMP. Overall, the unemployed were the only group less likely to report awareness of or participation in HMP development. African-Americans, mobile home residents, the poor, short-term residents and those with less disaster experience were less likely to be aware of policies and investments prioritised in the HMP. Targeted efforts to increase awareness could potentially improve disaster outcomes among vulnerable populations.     

Hurricane Harvey and Greater Houston households: comparing pre-event preparedness with post-event health effects,event exposures,and recovery

Most disaster studies rely on convenience sampling and ‘after-only’ designs to assess impacts. This paper, focusing on Hurricane Harvey (2017) and leveraging a pre-/post-event sample of Greater Houston households (n=71) in the United States, establishes baselines for disaster preparedness and home structure flood hazard mitigation, explores household-level ramifications, and examines how preparedness and mitigation relate to health effects, event exposures, and recovery. Between 70 and 80 per cent of participants instituted preparedness measures. Mitigation actions varied: six per cent had interior drainage systems and 83 per cent had elevated indoor heating/cooling components. Sixty per cent reported home damage. One-half highlighted allergies and two-thirds indicated some level of post-traumatic stress (PTS). Three-quarters worried about family members/friends. The results of generalised linear models revealed that greater pre- event mitigation was associated with fewer physical health problems and adverse experiences, lower PTS, and faster recovery. The study design exposed the broad benefits of home structure flood hazard mitigation for households after Harvey.     

Listing for change? Exploring the politics of relief lists in Bangladesh after Cyclone Sidr

Ideal notions of efficient aid are challenged continuously by realities on the ground in the wake of major disasters, such as dire needs, limited resources, and opportunism. This paper demonstrates how ‘relief lists’ can be productive entry points for a systematic inquiry into the pervasive politics of disaster assistance. Through an analysis of qualitative data collected during the five years after Cyclone Sidr struck Bangladesh on 15 November 2007, it examines how relief lists featured in both physical and phantom forms and then developed beyond their transparency-making aims, becoming elevated sites of struggle for post-disaster resources. Three list processes, selected to indicate the temporal, material, and spatial dynamics of relief encounters, are assessed in depth. Although recipients of cyclone relief appreciated its value, the paper argues that list politics also stimulated structures of vulnerability, including inequality. Gradually, relief, as governed after Sidr, also served to restore the differential vulnerability of the country's coastal poor.     

基于复杂网络的燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析*

为提高燃气管线突发事件应急处置决策水平和应急响应能力及效率，采用复杂网络理论和灾害链演化机理对燃气管线破裂灾害事件影响进行耦合分析，构建燃气管线破裂灾害链网络和风险评估模型，并计算得出燃气管线破裂灾害链风险度。为更准确地表达无传播路径的灾害事件之间的关系，将灾害网络中所有最短路径长度的最大值作为其最短路径长度，计算表明这种算法更符合灾害传播实际情况。结果表明:通过燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析，能够为燃气管线灾害风险控制措施和方案制定提供参考，有利于提高燃气管线破裂灾害事件的应急处置能力和决策水平。     

穿层爆破中控制孔对裂隙扩展作用机理试验研究

为研究控制孔在穿层爆破中对裂隙扩展的作用机理，在实验室内进行穿层爆破相似模拟试验。研究表明:煤岩体试块上表面产生了贯穿炮孔和控制孔的裂隙，侧面生成了多条不规则的裂隙，试块内部出现了包括沿控制孔方向发展的多个断裂面；炮孔和控制孔连线上产生了较高拉应力，炮孔和控制孔连线方向上拉应变峰值是炮孔45°方向上的拉应变峰值的1.12倍；爆破产生的压缩应力波P和在控制孔处反射生成的反射横波Sr、反射纵波Pr在控制孔附近的煤岩体上产生应力叠加，造成煤岩体损伤，最终形成贯穿裂隙。穿层爆破中控制孔对爆生裂隙的扩展起到导向作用，但由于穿层爆破中煤岩交界面的存在，使得应力波出现复杂的反射、透射、叠加效应，造成煤层内裂隙无序发育，工程现场应予以重视。     

大学生减灾教育对策研究

灾害风险认知能力是进行减灾教育的基础,受众获取灾害知识与信息的方式是影响减灾教育方法的重要因素,而受众获取灾害知识与信息的途径则会直接影响灾害内容的传递效率和效果。本文针对以上所关心的问题,为了建立合理有效的大学生减灾教育计划,应对大学生防灾减灾意识和能力不足的现状,通过问卷调查,分析和研究了来自不同生源地大学生的灾害风险认知水平、获取灾害知识和信息的方式与途径。从自然灾害风险认知的视角,通过寻找不同特性大学生群体获取减灾知识与信息的差异和趋同性,提出了现势条件下针对大学生的减灾教育对策。