汽车道路试验安全管理体系建设研究

为了保障汽车道路试验安全、提高安全管理水平,设计提出汽车道路试验安全管理体系(SMS)总方案。根据OHSAS 18001和安全标准化规范的特点分析,论证了融合两种体系建立道路试验SMS的适用性。并从政策与目标、风险管理、安全保证和安全促进四个模块阐述了该体系的搭建思路、框架内容和搭建步骤。最后,以某自主品牌车企研发中心道路试验的应用情况为例进行效果评估,结果表明:汽车道路试验SMS能有效防控风险、提升试验安全管理水平。     

上海市夏季湿沉降汞的时空分布规律及其影响因素

为研究上海市夏季湿沉降汞的时空分布特征,按月采集了2008年夏季(6～8月)5个采样点的大气湿沉降样品,经过王水+BrC1水浴消解、SnCl2还原后,用原子荧光测汞仪测试了样品中的总汞、溶解态汞和颗粒态汞浓度并对结果加以分析。结果表明,上海市夏季各采样点湿沉降中总汞、溶解态汞和颗粒态汞的平均浓度变化范围大,分别为0.13～0.39μg/L、0.04～0.22μg/L、0.09～0.18μg/L,总体上各形态汞的浓度都较高。湿沉降总汞的浓度在时间上表现为6月份较低而7、8月份较高的特征,在空间上是浦东最高,普陀其次,宝山最低;颗粒态汞占总汞的比例大,并且在不同降水类型中所占总汞的比例不同,在梅雨期锋面雨中所占比例较少而在对流雨中所占比例较大;总汞的沉降量与降水量成明显的正相关关系。大气湿沉降中各形态汞的浓度受控因素较多,其中在重要排放源和市中心下风向地区汞的浓度偏高,这需要在节能减排上下功夫,从源头治理汞的污染。     

Regional crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain

The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the most important regions for food production in China, with its agricultural system being significantly affected by the undergoing climate change and vulnerable with water stress. In this study, the Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP) model is used to evaluate crop yield, water consumption (ET), and water use efficiency (WUE) of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)–summer maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system in the NCP from 1951 to 2006. Their responses to future climate scenarios of 21st century projected by the GCM (HadCM3) with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenario (IPCC SRES) A2 and B1 emissions are investigated. The results show a rapid enhancement of crop yield in the past 56 years, accompanying with slight increment of ET and noticeable improvement of WUE. There exist spatial patterns of crop yield stemmed mainly from soil quality and irrigation facilities. For climate change impacts, it is found that winter wheat yield will significantly increase with the maximum increment in A2 occurring in 2070s with a value of 19%, whereas the maximum in B1 being 13% in 2060s. Its ET is slightly intensified, which is less than 6%, under both A2 and B1 scenarios, giving rise to the improvement of WUE by 10% and 7% under A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Comparatively, summer maize yield will gently decline by 15% for A2 and 12% for B1 scenario, respectively. Its ET is obviously increasing since 2050s with over 10% relative change, leading to a lower WUE with more than 25% relative change under both scenarios in 2090s. Therefore, possible adaptation countermeasures should be developed to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for the sustainable development of agro-ecosystems in the NCP.     

内蒙古农业灌区夏、秋浇的氮磷流失变化

通过对内蒙古农业灌区引黄灌溉的2次主要大规模灌溉（夏浇、秋浇）的跟踪监测,研究了农业灌区的氮磷流失情况.分析了2次灌溉期的各引水渠和排水渠中总氮（TN）、氨氮（NH4＋-N）、硝氮（NO3--N）、总磷（TP）、溶解性无机磷（DIP）、溶解性有机磷（DOP）、颗粒磷（PP）的变化情况.研究表明：夏浇时,由于植物吸收、灌水量小等因素,基本不产生污染.而秋浇期间,由于灌水量大、土地裸露成为非点源污染产生的主要时期.在对第8排域的TN、TP的连续监测中发现,排干沟中的总氮总磷含量基本维持在4.16mg.L^-1和0.1725mg.L^-1,且氮为主要的污染控制因子;排干沟中的N/P为24,排入乌梁素海中极易引起水华发生.结合河套农业灌区的自然条件、耕作方式等因素,综合分析了河套灌区在夏浇及秋浇时期的非点源污染产生过程及污染特点.为该地区非点源污染管理和控制提供科学依据.     

Preliminary report on methane emissions from the Three Gorges Reservoir in the summer drainage period

Considerable variations may exist in CH4 emissions from the Three Gorges Reservoir.     

常规施肥条件下农田不同途径氮素损失的原位研究:以长江中下游地区夏玉米季为例

为了解农田常规施肥条件下的不同途径氮素损失特征,本文通过田间原位试验同步研究了长江中下游地区夏玉米生长季氮肥施用后的农田N2O排放、NH3挥发、氮渗漏和地表径流的变化.结果表明,在复合肥为基肥,尿素为追肥,基追肥氮素水平均为150 kg·hm-2的条件下,整个玉米生长季N2O排放系数为3.3%,NH3挥发损失率为10.2%,氮渗漏和地表径流损失率分别为11.2%和5.1%.此外,基肥施用以氮素渗漏损失为主,而追肥氮素损失以氨挥发和渗漏为主,表明不同途径化肥氮素损失主要受氮肥品种影响,玉米季追肥可改用低氨挥发氮肥品种以减少氮素损失.     

农田土壤施用系列新型氮肥后气态氮(NH3和N2O)减排效果比较:以夏玉米季为例

为了解不同品种新型氮肥相对常规施肥其氨(NH3)和氧化亚氮(N_2O)的减排效果,本文通过田间原位试验同步研究了夏玉米生长季氮肥施用后的农田NH_3挥发和N_2O排放及其主要驱动因子.以常规施肥(复合肥+尿素,CK)为对照,设置了5个肥料处理,分别为脲铵氮肥(UA)、稳定性复合肥料(UHD)、硫包衣氮肥(SCU)、脲甲醛复合肥(UF)和有机肥(OF),施氮量(以N计)均为300 kg·hm~(-2).相关分析结果表明,氨挥发和N_2O排放受环境因子影响,均与土壤WFPS呈显著负相关(P0.05),N_2O排放还与土壤硝态氮呈极显著正相关(P0.01).进一步回归分析表明,N_2O排放(F_(N_2O))主要取决于土壤硝态氮(x)含量的变化,而氨挥发(F_(NH_3))主要取决于土壤铵态氮(x)含量的变化.与CK相比,除了UA,其它肥料处理都降低了土壤的氨挥发,尤其是UF和OF处理减少了37%~43%.但对于N_2O排放,所有处理与CK皆无显著差异.进一步计算每种处理氨挥发和N_2O的气态氮损失总量,与CK相比,UHD、SCU、UF和OF分别减排了9%、5%、30%和23%,而UA增加了3%.     

The impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Belgrade (Serbia) during summer

In this paper, we are dealing with two extreme events in temperature and population – heat wave and mortality. Our aim is to assess the relation between high temperatures and daily mortality counts during the summer months in the period 2000–2010 in Belgrade (Serbia). In order to establish this connection, we used Poisson regression and two different measures of heat wave: Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) and apparent temperature (T _app). As mean daily temperature increases over 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles, average number of deaths increases for 15.3% (p?<?.01), 22.4% (p?<?.05) and 32.0% (insignificant for p?<?.1). We tested three different thresholds (90th, 95th, 99th) for WSDI and T _app in order to separate the hottest heat-wave episodes. On average, mortality is higher than expected for 13.4%, 16.7% and 28.3% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for WSDI) and 16.1%, 17.3% and 32.5% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for T _app). Estimated mortality excess with heat-wave indices is in accordance with regression output, meaning that WSDI and T _app are good tools for heat-wave identification. During the most severe episode in July 2007, absolute temperature maximum (43.6°C) and daily maximum mortality counts (94 dead) were recorded in the same day (24 July 2007).     

深圳市冬、夏两季大气中有机氯农药的研究

利用大流量主动采样器,选择深圳市13个有代表性采样点,于2009年12月~2010年1月和2010年6月,分2个采样时期对深圳市大气中有机氯农药(OCPs)进行监测.结果显示,深圳市冬、夏大气中,13个点位总有机氯农药浓度变化范围分别为742~3522 pg/m3(平均值1769pg/m3)和507~2197pg/m3(平均值1163pg/m3).冬季大气中有机氯农药主要是DDTs、林丹、七氯、氯丹、六氯苯,占有机氯农药总量的87%;夏季大气中有机氯农药主要为DDTs、氯丹、林丹,三者总量占有机氯农药的89%.研究表明,深圳市大气中存在“新”DDT的输入,认为工业DDT是其主要来源,而γ-HCH以及氯丹的高检出与林丹和用于杀灭白蚁的氯丹的继续使用有关.     

川渝地区夏季降水与赤道印度洋海温的诊断分析

利用川渝地区1960-2006年逐月降水量资料和美国NOAA Research/ESRL逐月再分析海表温度(SST)资料,采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)、点相关、合成分析和奇异值分解(SVD)等方法,详细探讨了川渝地区夏季降水量与赤道印度洋海温的关系。结果表明:川渝夏季降水量EOF分解得出的第一模态占总方差的27.8%,降水量的空间分布为全区一致型;川渝地区夏季降水量与赤道印度洋海温区域(10°N~16°S,57~77°E)(下称关键区)存在显著相关。合成分析指出关键区海温异常偏暖(冷),对应川渝地区夏季降水量比常年同期偏多(少)。通过SVD分解发现,川渝地区夏季降水量与关键区海温呈显著相关,具体表现为印度洋关键区海温与川西高原和盆地东部夏季降水量呈同位相变化,与盆地中部降水量呈反位相变化。