Monitoring,imperfect detection,and risk optimization of a Tasmanian devil insurance population

Most species are imperfectly detected during biological surveys, which creates uncertainty around their abundance or presence at a given location. Decision makers managing threatened or pest species are regularly faced with this uncertainty. Wildlife diseases can drive species to extinction; thus, managing species with disease is an important part of conservation. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such disease that led to the listing of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) as endangered. Managers aim to maintain devils in the wild by establishing disease‐free insurance populations at isolated sites. Often a resident DFTD‐affected population must first be removed. In a successful collaboration between decision scientists and wildlife managers, we used an accessible population model to inform monitoring decisions and facilitate the establishment of an insurance population of devils on Forestier Peninsula. We used a Bayesian catch‐effort model to estimate population size of a diseased population from removal and camera trap data. We also analyzed the costs and benefits of declaring the area disease‐free prior to reintroduction and establishment of a healthy insurance population. After the monitoring session in May–June 2015, the probability that all devils had been successfully removed was close to 1, even when we accounted for a possible introduction of a devil to the site. Given this high probability and the baseline cost of declaring population absence prematurely, we found it was not cost‐effective to carry out any additional monitoring before introducing the insurance population. Considering these results within the broader context of Tasmanian devil management, managers ultimately decided to implement an additional monitoring session before the introduction. This was a conservative decision that accounted for uncertainty in model estimates and for the broader nonmonetary costs of mistakenly declaring the area disease‐free.     

基于AHP-联系熵的应急预案实施过程风险评估

应急预案制定后的实施对于事故发生后预案的顺利运行至关重要，因此，有必要对应急预案实施过程的风险水平进行度量。以应急预案实施过程作为研究对象，基于风险理论与AHP-联系熵耦合方法开展风险评估。以应急预案实施过程风险水平为目标层，应急预案的宣传教育和培训、应急资源的定期检查落实、应急演习训练、应急预案的实用性检验、应急预案电子化、事故回顾等过程要素作为策略层，实施方法科学高效、调动工作者积极的态度、领导的重视和能力、设备的完整性作为方案层，形成应急预案实施过程风险评估三级模型；运用联系熵表征风险标准与应急预案实施过程风险水平这2个集对之间的关联性，在AHP结构模型和权重分配的基础上计算加权熵并得到目标层的总联系熵，对比标准熵区间得到应急预案实施过程的整体风险等级。结果表明，采用AHP-联系熵度量方法提高了评价结果的结构性和准确性，比传统直接加权的方法更符合实际情况。     

《循环经济促进法》有效实施的思考和建议

颁布实施《循环经济促进法》,是落实党中央提出的实现循环经济较大规模发展战略目标的重要举措。该法实施一年来取得了积极效果,循环经济的理念逐步深入人心,有利于循环经济发展的制度环境初步形成,全国范围内循环经济试点稳步扎实推进,技术、标准、信息化网络等循环经济基本工作得到加强。与此同时,一些深层次问题也开始显现,需要尽早重视和解决。     

区域清洁生产评价模式探讨

区域清洁生产提供了有效解决地区性重大环境问题的途径。介绍了区域清洁生产理论基础之后,论述了区域清洁生产的实施模式,并建立了完整的经济环境评价模型,为区域清洁生产的实施提供了参考依据。     

浅谈石化企业体系审核策划的增值

从审核方案策划和审核实施策划两个方面就审核策划的增值方案制订、实施方式和途径进行了探讨。     

我国公众灾害教育研究综述

面向公众的灾害教育是防灾减灾工作中的重要一环。通过对公众灾害教育相关研究梳理,明确其概况、实施途径,在此基础上提出策略促进其开展,进而提高全民防灾素养。     

Transnational environmental collective action facing implementation constraints – the case of nutrient leakage in the Baltic Sea Action Plan

While scholars have showed a long-standing interest for how to design effective environmental treaties and other international agreements, less interest has been paid to implementation phases of these agreements. This article takes the Eutrophication Segment in the Baltic Sea Action Plan as an example of a regional effort to reduce nutrient leakages, where national reporting of adopted strategies has been a key mechanism to improve implementation effectiveness. It is shown that although transnational collective action theory is a powerful tool to analyse underlying drivers and priorities in state implementation policies, a deeper analysis of domestic and external constraints can shed additional light on observed implementation gaps. Varying views among countries on, for example, the role of stakeholder participation, legitimacy and top-down governing versus multi-stakeholder governance approaches may comprise domestic constraints that make effective and efficient implementation problematic. In terms of external constraints, states’ balancing of action plan objectives versus other international commitments, such as other environmental treaties and EU Directives, is shown to potentially reduce implementation efficiency as well.     

Responding to a policy mandate to collaborate: structuring collaboration in the collaborative forest landscape restoration program

The Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program (CFLRP) aims to expand the pace and scale of forest restoration on national forests in the United States. The program requires candidate projects to develop landscape-scale forest restoration proposals through a collaborative process and continue to collaborate throughout planning, implementation, and monitoring. Our comparative case analysis of the initial selected projects examines how existing collaborative groups draw on past experience of collaboration and the requirements of a new mandate to shape collaborative structures as they undertake CFLRP work. While mandating collaboration appears contrary to what is often defined as an informal and emergent process, mandates can encourage stakeholder engagement and renew commitment to overcome past conflict. Our findings also suggest that a collaborative mandate can lead to increased attention and scrutiny, prompting adjustments to collaborative process and structure. As such, mandating collaboration creates dynamic tensions between past experience and new requirements for collaborative practice.     

A disaster scene simulation system in 3D for oil transmission stations: Design and implementation

The disaster scene in three-dimensional (3D) plays a crucial role in disaster emergency management and risk communication of oil transmission stations. However, existing research for the disaster scene mainly focuses on reproducing the disaster environment and rarely predicts the damage state of the disaster-affected object. This paper proposes an object-oriented modeling method that utilizes a multilevel decomposition pattern for disaster scenes. This method combines earthquake vulnerability assessment with 3D visualization technology to predict and characterize the damage state of critical infrastructure in oil transmission stations. To enhance earthquake risk perception, a simulation system is designed and developed, which allows for the construction of virtual scenes and quick simulation of disaster scenes in 3D. The case application shows that the system improves the 3D modeling efficiency of disaster scenes and enhances public awareness of earthquake risks. The simulation system can provide technical support for seismic mitigation planning and emergency management decision-making at oil transmission stations and has good application prospects.     

京津冀生态涵养区生态规划思路与实施路径研究

生态规划是在调查分析区域内各生态因子的空间分异和承载力,分析人为活动对该区域的影响以及调控方向,为区域资源开发与环境保护提供决策依据,促进区域内自然系统与人类社会和谐发展.科学制定张承地区的生态规划,是建设京津冀生态涵养区的重要支撑.但是目前张家口市生态规划存在专门研究文献非常少、缺乏对微地形的考虑和分析、政府重视程度不够等多个层面的问题.做好张家口市生态规划,要坚持"生态优先、绿色发展"的原则,必须落脚到京津冀协同发展的大政方针,注重京津冀生态系统的整体性特征;必须要紧密结合张家口市当前面临的建成可再生能源示范区、京张联合举办冬奥会等多个发展节点.