Once there was a river: a benefit–cost analysis of rehabilitation of the Jordan River

The Jordan River is among the world’s most famous and culturally and historically significant waterways. The lower stretch of the river, however, has been a victim of development in a water scarce region, with current flows less than 5 % of historical levels. Furthermore, as it functions as an international border in a region of conflict, access to the river and its potential as a tourist attraction has been limited. Recently, there have been numerous calls for rehabilitation of the river. This study presents a first estimate of the economic benefits of such rehabilitation and compares them to the estimated costs. Identical contingent valuation method surveys were administered in Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority. Evidence from this study shows that, despite the large opportunity costs of increasing environmental flows, rehabilitation of the lower Jordan would produce positive net economic benefits. This is true even though the study estimated only the benefits to local populations, and not to international tourists or those outside the region. Net benefits are maximized when taking a regional, as opposed to strictly national, approach.     

Livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends mainly upon agriculture and livestock production are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world’s fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there is limited knowledge on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions in Nepal. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index and IPCC vulnerability index, around the Gandaki River Basin of central Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts, namely Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu representing three major ecological zones: mountain, mid-hill and Terai (lowland). Data on socio-demographics, livelihood determinants, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected and combined into the indices. Both indices differed for mixed agro-livestock smallholders across the three districts, with Dhading scoring as the most vulnerable and Syangja the least. Substantial variation across the districts was observed in components, sub-components and three dimensions (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) of vulnerability. The findings help in designing site-specific intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders to climate change.     

Public policy and the value of the environment: an alternative approach

There is a growing concern regarding the ‘true’ GNP. The claim is that the cost of environmental degradation should be taken into account when calculating welfare measures for society which can be derived from the system of national accounts (SNA). However, the reason that it has not been done is the difficulty of calculating the true ‘price of the environment’. The literature recognizes two types of measurements. One is based on indirect measures (e.g. hedonic methods) while the second is based on direct methods (e.g. contingent valuation methods). There is an alternative approach which is suggested in this paper. The new method relies on the assumption that what we see in reality is the outcome of a maximization process of some social welfare function which includes not only GNP but other elements of which environmental quality is one. By observing the reality, we can get some information on the implicit governmental weights and hence on the trade‐off between the GNP and the environment. This is a positive approach rather than a normative one, so future decisions can rely on this measurement as a guide for controversial decisions regarding development versus preservation. The theoretical model is then applied to the Israeli economy as an example in order to have some estimate on the price derived by this method.     

Impacts of Changes in Precipitation Amount and Distribution on Water Resources Studied Using a Model Rainwater Harvesting System

Water supply reliability is expected to be affected by both precipitation amount and distribution changes under recent and future climate change. We compare historical (1951‐2010) changes in annual‐mean and annual‐maximum daily precipitation in the global set of station observations from Global Historical Climatology Network and climate models from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI‐MIP), and develop the study to 2011‐2099 for model projections under high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). We develop a simple rainwater harvesting system (RWHS) model and drive it with observational and modeled precipitation. We study the changes in mean and maximum precipitation along with changes in the reliability of the model RWHS as tools to assess the impact of changes in precipitation amount and distribution on reliability of precipitation‐fed water supplies. Results show faster increase in observed maximum precipitation (10.14% per K global warming) than mean precipitation (7.64% per K), and increased reliability of the model RWHS driven by observed precipitation by an average of 0.2% per decade. The ISI‐MIP models show even faster increase in maximum precipitation compared to mean precipitation. However, they imply decreases in mean reliability, for an average 0.15% per decade. Compared to observations, climate models underestimate the increasing trends in mean and maximum precipitation and show the opposite direction of change in reliability of a model water supply system.     

Scale-dependent habitat selection in migratory frugivorous passerines

Frugivorous migrants may select fruit-rich habitats en route to attain high food rewards, yet their stopover behavior may also be shaped by other considerations, such as predation risk. During 1996–2001 we investigated autumn stopover habitat use of three Sylvia warblers (sylviids; S. hortensis, S. atricapilla and S. curruca) and three Turdidae chats (turdids; Cercotrichas galactotes, Oenanthe hispanica and Phoenicurus phoenicurus) in planted groves of the fruiting tree Pistacia atlantica in Lahav Forest, Israel, which is located at the edge of a desert. We used fecal analysis, a constant-effort trapping scheme and field observations to estimate the extent of frugivory, and bird habitat and microhabitat selection with regard to natural fruit and foliage densities. We also measured bird microhabitat selection in a set of fruit-manipulated trees. We trapped a total of 2,357 birds during the course of the study. Although sylviids exhibited higher frugivory level than turdids, both species groups exhibited a similar significantly positive correlation between bird and fruit densities at the habitat scale. However, at the microhabitat scale, sylviids selected densely foliated trees, whilst turdids were randomly distributed among trees. Our findings suggest that both species groups selected fruit-rich stopover habitats to take advantage of the high food availability before the demanding migration journey. No other mechanism except predation avoidance can explain the sylviids microhabitat selection; the migrants used foliage cover to reduce bird detectability by raptors. We conclude that en route passerines may use staging habitats in a sophisticated manner, by adopting scale-related behavior with regard to the availability of food and refuge cover.     

A Bayesian assessment of the effect of highway bypasses in Iowa on crashes and crash rate

Introduction

A common contention is that the construction of highway bypasses negatively impacts the economy of local communities by reducing pass-by traffic for businesses. However, as access to specific business' account records is limited, this impact is difficult to quantify. Another common contention is that bypasses contribute to a reduction in overall crashes in the community and in the surrounding areas. Even though a large number of bypasses have been constructed in the State of Iowa over the past several years, their actual impact in terms of traffic safety has not been quantified.

Objectives

This study seeks answers to the following questions: (a) Are bypasses in Iowa associated with a reduction in crash frequencies and crash rates on the bypassed highway? (b) Do bypasses in Iowa introduce a reduction of overall crash frequencies and rates or do they merely shift crashes from the highways through the communities to the bypasses with no significant overall reduction?

Method

We obtained crash information from the Iowa DOT at 19 sites on which a bypass was constructed sometime during the past 23 years. We also obtained the same information at six sites used as comparison sites on which no bypasses were constructed at least until 2005. We them employed a Bayesian approach to estimating the association between the construction of the bypass and crash rates, while also accounting for other factors.

Results

The construction of bypasses in Iowa is associated with a significant increase in traffic safety both on the main road through town and on the combined main road and bypass roadway.     

The influence of individual differences on organizational safety attitudes

Workplace accidents cost organizations and the economy billions of dollars annually, disabling and injuring millions of employees. Employee attitudes toward safety have been shown to relate to safe workplace behavior. In an effort to determine what contributes to stronger employee attitudes toward safety, we examined the relationships between safety attitudes and a wide array of individual differences reflecting preferences and tendencies toward risk and control. Using a sample of 190 engineering and occupational safety students from two universities, we found that agreeableness, conscientiousness, prevention regulatory focus, and fatalism related significantly to all six safety attitudes examined. Regression analyses demonstrated that agreeableness, prevention focus, and fatalism significantly related to safety attitudes when controlling for the other individual differences. This study illustrates the utility of examining individual differences when predicting safety-related attitudes.     

Can level of safety climate predict level of orientation toward safety in a decision making task?

Establishing the relationship between level of safety climate and safety performance is a current challenge. This work examines the relationship between level of safety climate and orientation toward safety in the decision making process and choice. Alternatively, this work seeks to answer the question of whether level of safety climate can predict safety-oriented decision making. A generalized safety climate questionnaire and a decision making simulation are utilized to examine this relationship. The results indicate that level of safety climate is not a significant predictor of the decision process; however, it was found to be a significant predictor of the selection of safer choices.