Quantitative Assessment of Agricultural Runoff and Soil Erosion Using Mathematical Modeling: Applications in the Mediterranean Region

Three mathematical models, the runoff curve number equation, the universal soil loss equation, and the mass response functions, were evaluated for predicting nonpoint source nutrient loading from agricultural watersheds of the Mediterranean region. These methodologies were applied to a catchment, the gulf of Gera Basin, that is a typical terrestrial ecosystem of the islands of the Aegean archipelago. The calibration of the model parameters was based on data from experimental plots from which edge-of-field losses of sediment, water runoff, and nutrients were measured. Special emphasis was given to the transport of dissolved and solid-phase nutrients from their sources in the farmers' fields to the outlet of the watershed in order to estimate respective attenuation rates. It was found that nonpoint nutrient loading due to surface losses was high during winter, the contribution being between 50% and 80% of the total annual nutrient losses from the terrestrial ecosystem. The good fit between simulated and experimental data supports the view that these modeling procedures should be considered as reliable and effective methodological tools in Mediterranean areas for evaluating potential control measures, such as management practices for soil and water conservation and changes in land uses, aimed at diminishing soil loss and nutrient delivery to surface waters. Furthermore, the modifications of the general mathematical formulations and the experimental values of the model parameters provided by the study can be used in further application of these methodologies in watersheds with similar characteristics.     

Multiple regression models: a methodology for evaluating trihalomethane concentrations in drinking water from raw water characteristics

The presence of trihalomethanes (THMs) in drinking water has attracted the attention of both researchers and professionals, because of the harmful effects of these substances on human health. A multiple regression model was developed to estimate THM concentrations in finished drinking water, using data from the Menidi Treatment Plant of Athens. A number of routinely measured characteristics--including chlorine dose, chlorophyll a, temperature, pH and bromide--of raw water, were used to generate a reliable methodology for predicting both total THM and individual species concentrations. Seasonality effects were also considered during the analysis. In general, these models were found to give acceptable fits, estimating accurately lows and highs over the annual cycle.     

The effects of seston food quality on planktonic food web patterns

In planktonic food webs, the conversion rate of plant material to herbivore biomass is determined by a variety of factors such as seston biochemical/elemental composition, phytoplankton cell morphology, and colony architecture. Despite the overwhelming heterogeneity characterizing the plant–animal interface, plankton population models usually misrepresent the food quality constraints imposed on zooplankton growth. In this study, we reformulate the zooplankton grazing term to include seston food quality effects on zooplankton assimilation efficiency and examine its ramifications on system stability. Using different phytoplankton parameterizations with regards to growth strategies, light requirements, sinking rates, and food quality, we examined the dynamics induced in planktonic systems under varying zooplankton mortality/fish predation, light conditions, nutrient availability, and detritus food quality levels. In general, our analysis suggests that high food quality tends to stabilize the planktonic systems, whereas unforced oscillations (limit cycles) emerge with lower seston food quality. For a given phytoplankton specification and resource availability, the amplitude of the plankton oscillations is primarily modulated from zooplankton mortality and secondarily from the nutritional quality of the alternative food source (i.e., detritus). When the phytoplankton community is parameterized as a cyanobacterium-like species, conditions of high nutrient availability combined with high zooplankton mortality led to phytoplankton biomass accumulation, whereas a diatom-like parameterization resulted in relatively low phytoplankton to zooplankton biomass ratios highlighting the notion that high phytoplankton food quality allows the zooplankton community to sustain relatively high biomass and to suppress phytoplankton biomass to low levels. During nutrient and light enrichment conditions, both phytoplankton and detritus food quality determine the extent of the limit cycle region, whereas high algal food quality increases system resilience by shifting the oscillatory region towards lower light attenuation levels. Detritus food quality seems to regulate the amplitude of the dynamic oscillations following enrichment, when algal food quality is low. These results highlight the profitability of the alternative food sources for the grazer as an important predictor for the dynamic behavior of primary producer–grazer interactions in nature.     

Structural changes in lake functioning induced from nutrient loading and climate variability

Climate variability is increasingly recognized as an important regulatory factor, capable of influencing the structural properties of aquatic ecosystems. Lakes appear to be particularly sensitive to the ecological impacts of climate variability, and several long time series have shown a close coupling between climate, lake thermal properties and individual organism physiology, population abundance, community structure, and food web dynamics. Thus, understanding the complex interplay among meteorological forcing, hydrological variability, and ecosystem functioning is essential for improving the credibility of model-based water resources/fisheries management. Our objective herein is to examine the relative importance of the ecological mechanisms underlying plankton seasonal variability in Lake Washington, Washington State (USA), over a 35-year period (1964–1998). Our analysis is founded upon an intermediate complexity plankton model that is used to reproduce the limiting nutrient (phosphate)–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (particulate phosphorus) dynamics in the lake. Model parameterization is based on a Bayesian calibration scheme that offers insights into the degree of information the data contain about model inputs and allows obtaining predictions along with uncertainty bounds for modeled output variables. The model accurately reproduces the key seasonal planktonic patterns in Lake Washington and provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest. A principal component analysis of the annual estimates of the underlying ecological processes highlighted the significant role of the phosphorus recycling stemming from the zooplankton excretion on the planktonic food web variability. We also identified a moderately significant signature of the local climatic conditions (air temperature) on phytoplankton growth (r = 0.41), herbivorous grazing (r = 0.38), and detritus mineralization (r = 0.39). Our study seeks linkages with the conceptual food web model proposed by Hampton et al. [Hampton, S.E., Scheuerell, M.D., Schindler, D.E., 2006b. Coalescence in the Lake Washington story: interaction strengths in a planktonic food web. Limnol. Oceanogr. 51, 2042–2051.] to emphasize the “bottom-up” control of the Lake Washington plankton phenology. The posterior predictive distributions of the plankton model are also used to assess the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance with total phosphorus (15 μg L⁻¹) and chlorophyll a (4 μg L⁻¹) threshold levels during the summer-stratified period in Lake Washington. Finally, we conclude by underscoring the importance of explicitly acknowledging the uncertainty in ecological forecasts to the management of freshwater ecosystems under a changing global environment.     

A Bayesian hierarchical framework for calibrating aquatic biogeochemical models

Model practitioners increasingly place emphasis on rigorous quantitative error analysis in aquatic biogeochemical models and the existing initiatives range from the development of alternative metrics for goodness of fit, to data assimilation into operational models, to parameter estimation techniques. However, the treatment of error in many of these efforts is arguably selective and/or ad hoc. A Bayesian hierarchical framework enables the development of robust probabilistic analysis of error and uncertainty in model predictions by explicitly accommodating measurement error, parameter uncertainty, and model structure imperfection. This paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical formulation for simultaneously calibrating aquatic biogeochemical models at multiple systems (or sites of the same system) with differences in their trophic conditions, prior precisions of model parameters, available information, measurement error or inter-annual variability. Our statistical formulation also explicitly considers the uncertainty in model inputs (model parameters, initial conditions), the analytical/sampling error associated with the field data, and the discrepancy between model structure and the natural system dynamics (e.g., missing key ecological processes, erroneous formulations, misspecified forcing functions). The comparison between observations and posterior predictive monthly distributions indicates that the plankton models calibrated under the Bayesian hierarchical scheme provided accurate system representations for all the scenarios examined. Our results also suggest that the Bayesian hierarchical approach allows overcoming problems of insufficient local data by “borrowing strength” from well-studied sites and this feature will be highly relevant to conservation practices of regions with a high number of freshwater resources for which complete data could never be practically collected. Finally, we discuss the prospect of extending this framework to spatially explicit biogeochemical models (e.g., more effectively connect inshore with offshore areas) along with the benefits for environmental management, such as the optimization of the sampling design of monitoring programs and the alignment with the policy practice of adaptive management.     

Long-term changes in fish mercury levels in the historically impacted English-Wabigoon River system (Canada)

The English-Wabigoon River system in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, was one of the most heavily mercury-contaminated waterways in the world due to historical discharges in the 1960s from a chlor-alkali plant. This study examines long-term (1970-2010) monitoring data to assess temporal trends in mercury contamination in Walleye, Northern Pike and Lake Whitefish, three species important for sport and subsistence fishing in this region, using dynamic linear modeling and piecewise regression. For all lakes and species, there is a significant decline (36-94%) in mercury concentrations through time; however, there is evidence that this decline is either slowing down or levelling off. Concentrations in the English-Wabigoon fish are elevated, and may still present a potential health risk to humans consuming fish from this system. Various biotic and abiotic factors are examined as possible explanations to slowing rates of decline in mercury concentrations observed in the mid-1980s.     

Non-Point-Source Impacts on Stream Nutrient Concentrations Along a Forest to Urban Gradient

We conducted statistical analyses of a 10-year record of stream nutrient and sediment concentrations for 17 streams in the greater Seattle region to determine the impact of urban non-point-source pollutants on stream water quality. These catchments are dominated by either urban (22–87%) or forest (6–73%) land cover, with no major nutrient point sources. Stream water phosphorus concentrations were moderately strongly (r²=0.58) correlated with catchment land-cover type, whereas nitrogen concentrations were weakly (r²=0.19) and nonsignificantly (at < 0.05) correlated with land cover. The most urban streams had, on average, 95% higher total phosphorus (TP) and 122% higher soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and 71% higher turbidity than the most forested streams. Nitrate (NO₃), ammonium (NH₄), and total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations did not vary significantly with land cover. These results suggest that urbanization markedly increased stream phosphorus concentrations and modestly increased nitrogen concentrations. However, nutrient concentrations in Seattle region urban streams are significantly less than those previously reported for agricultural area streams.     

Ecological Patterns and Comparative Nutrient Dynamics of Natural and Agricultural Mediterranean-Type Ecosystems

An agricultural watershed, situated on an island of the Aegean archipelago, was studied in order to gain insight into the structure and the design of a typical terrestrial ecosystem of the Mediterranean region. Fieldwork was focused on the comparative study of seasonal patterns of inorganic nutrients, organic nitrogen, and erosion over the most abundant vegetation types of the area, such as olive groves, maquis, and wetlands. Nutrient losses via the pathway of erosion were provided by the determination of nutrient concentrations in runoff sediments. Results showed that nutrient levels are higher and more susceptible to rapid changes in the zones that host agricultural activities and animal husbandry. The behavior of nitrogen and phosphorus showed remarkable stability in the maquis, where dynamic processes were mainly affected by soil erosion, which led gradually to land degradation, especially on sloping terrains. The aim of this study was to form the basis for the quantification of the interconnections within the Mediterranean-type ecosystems and to conceptualize their operational properties.     

Elucidation of ecosystem attributes of an oligotrophic lake in Hokkaido,Japan, using Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)

The fishing practices in the oligotrophic Lake Toya, Hokkaido, Japan, have profound implications in the ecosystem sustainability. The status of the sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) population has become a serious concern among the lake managers and policy makers during the last decades. While the decline of the sockeye salmon population has been well documented in Lake Toya, there is considerable uncertainty with regards to the impact on the broader system dynamics. In this study, our objective is to address this knowledge gap by undertaking a synthesis of the Lake Toya food web using the mass-balance modeling software Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE). Our primary research question is to examine the repercussions of the declining sockeye salmon population on the trophic dynamics of the lake. Namely, we assess if there are any competing species that might have benefited from the decrease of sockeye salmon standing biomass and to what extent do these changes propagate through the Lake Toya food web? Our analysis pinpoints the critical role of the Japanese smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus nipponensis) in the system, which demonstrates a wide range of effects on several functional groups at both higher and lower trophic levels in Lake Toya. In particular, being a substantial portion of the masu salmon (Oncorhynchus masou) and adult sockeye salmon diets, the Japanese smelt has a positive impact on the top predators of the system. Amphipods, insects, and shrimp strongly benefit from the autochthonous and allochthonous organic matter in the system, while the tight coupling between phytoplankton and zooplankton seems to be particularly critical for the integrity of the Lake Toya food web. Whereas the values of the different ecosystem attributes (e.g., primary production/biomass, biomass/total throughput, system omnivory index, amount of recycled throughput, Finn's cycling index) provide evidence that Lake Toya is an immature system, we note that the internal redundancy and the system overhead estimates suggest that the lake possesses substantial reserves to overcome external perturbations. We also examined the effects of a variety of fishing policies on the biomass of masu salmon and adult sockeye salmon, which verify the belief that the adult sockeye population is quite fragile with high likelihood to collapse. Our analysis also predicts that sockeye will not rebound unless the fishing pressure exerted is substantially reduced (>50% of the reference levels used). Masu salmon seems to benefit under all the scenarios examined indicating that the intensity of the current fishing activities is significantly lower than its biomass accumulation rate in the system.