Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation,Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi1

Frey, Ashley E., Francisco Olivera, Jennifer L. Irish, Lauren M. Dunkin, James M. Kaihatu, Celso M. Ferreira, and Billy L. Edge, 2010. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation, Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–11. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00475.x Abstract: The effect of climate change on storm-surge flooding and the implications for population and structural damages on the city of Corpus Christi, Texas, was investigated. The study considered the influence of sea level rise and hurricane intensification, both influenced by climate change. Combinations of future carbon dioxide equivalent emission rates and carbon dioxide doubling sensitivities, based on findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were considered to define future climate scenarios. A suite of physically based numerical models for hurricane winds and the resulting waves, surge, and morphological change at the coast were used to determine flooded areas, population affected, and property damages for Hurricanes Bret, Beulah, and a version of Carla shifted south from its original track, under present and predicted future climate conditions. A comparison of the economic damages for current climate conditions and for the 2080s climate scenario shows that, for Carla (shifted), there will be an increase in the range of $270-1,100 million; for Beulah, of $100-390 million; and, for Bret, of $30-280 million. A similar analysis was also conducted for 2030s predicted climate scenarios. Overall, the comparison of the results for the different climate conditions indicates what the destructive consequences of climate change could be, even within the somewhat short time frame of 80 years considered here.     

Investigation of an Escherichia coli environmental benchmark for waterborne pathogens in agricultural watersheds in Canada

Canada's National Agri-Environmental Standards Initiative sought to develop an environmental benchmark for low-level waterborne pathogen occurrence in agricultural watersheds. A field study collected 902 water samples from 27 sites in four intensive agricultural watersheds across Canada from 2005 to 2007. Four of the sites were selected as reference sites away from livestock and human fecal pollution sources in each watershed. Water samples were analyzed for Campylobacter spp., Salmonella spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, Cryptosporidium spp., Giardia spp., and the water quality indicator E. coli. The annual mean number of pathogen species was higher at agricultural sites (1.54 ± 0.07 species per water sample) than at reference sites (0.75 ± 0.14 species per water sample). The annual mean concentration of E. coli was also higher at agricultural sites (491 ± 96 colony-forming units [cfu] 100 mL(-1)) than at reference sites (53 ± 18 cfu 100 mL(-1)). The feasibility of adopting existing E. coli water quality guideline values as an environmental benchmark was assessed, but waterborne pathogens were detected at agricultural sites in 80% of water samples with low E. coli concentrations (<100 cfu 100 mL(-1)). Instead, an approach was developed based on using the natural background occurrence of pathogens at reference sites in agricultural watersheds to derive provisional environmental benchmarks for pathogens at agricultural sites. The environmental benchmarks that were derived were found to represent E. coli values lower than geometric mean values typically found in recreational water quality guidelines. Additional research is needed to investigate environmental benchmarks for waterborne pathogens within the context of the "One World, One Health" perspective for protecting human, domestic animal, and wildlife health.     

Endosulfan transport: I. Integrative assessment of airborne and waterborne pathways

To reduce endosulfan (C9H6O3Cl6S; 6,7,8,9,10,10-hexachloro-1,5, 5a,6,9,9a-hexahydro-6,9-methano-2,4,3-benzodioxathiepin 3-oxide) contamination in rivers and waterways, it is important to know the relative significances of airborne transport pathways (including spray drift, vapor transport, and dust transport) and waterborne transport pathways (including overland and stream runoff). This work uses an integrated modeling approach to assess the absolute and relative contributions of these pathways to riverine endosulfan concentrations. The modeling framework involves two parts: a set of simple models for each transport pathway, and a model for the physical and chemical processes acting on endosulfan in river water. An averaging process is used to calculate the effects of transport pathways at the regional scale. The results show that spray drift, vapor transport, and runoff are all significant pathways. Dust transport is found to be insignificant. Spray drift and vapor transport both contribute low-level but nearly continuous inputs to the riverine endosulfan load during spraying season in a large cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.)-growing area, whereas runoff provides occasional but higher inputs. These findings are supported by broad agreement between model predictions and observed typical riverine endosulfan concentrations in two rivers.     

Using Wildlife Communities to Improve Vegetation Classification for Conserving Biodiversity

Determining which vegetation types organisms perceive similarly and classifying these types into groups that function as similar habitats are necessary steps toward expanding the focus of conservation strategies from single species to ecosystems. Therefore, the methods used to determine these habitat classifications are crucial to the successful design and implementation of these conservation strategies. Typically, this process has been accomplished through best professional judgement. We used quantitative techniques to group vegetation types into habitats based on the occurrence of breeding wildlife species ( n = 420) in Oregon. After calculating faunal similarities among all regional vegetation types ( n = 130), we used cluster analysis to group vegetation types into wildlife habitats. We classified the original 130 vegetation types into 30 wildlife habitat types that we believe function similarly. We tested this classification to assess whether vegetation types could be correctly classified into habitat types based on wildlife species composition. Discriminant analysis correctly classified 95% of the vegetation types into their wildlife habitat types, strengthening our confidence in this approach. This approach for classifying habitat types allows consistent development of conservation strategies at coarse resolutions and aids in identifying vegetation types where additional biodiversity surveys are needed. Finally, this approach can be refined continuously as the precision of vegetation mapping and our understanding of organism-habitat associations improve.     

Photo-Stabilisation and UV Blocking Efficacy of Coated Macro and Nano-Rutile Titanium Dioxide Particles in Paints and Coatings

Surface treated macro and nanoparticle TiO₂ samples have been prepared, characterised and their efficiency as UV blockers evaluated in clear coatings and paints. The particle size of the ‘base’ TiO₂ has been optimised to block UV radiation and the surface treatment developed to deactivate the photocatalytic activity of the surface of the TiO₂ particles. The resultant UV blockers have been evaluated in both solvent and water-based clear coatings. Nanoparticle TiO₂ has been prepared from ‘seed’ and the particle size was controlled by calcination. It was found that the choice of particle size is a compromise between UVA absorption, UVB absorption, visible transmission and photoactivity. It has been demonstrated that TiO₂ with a crystallite size of 25 nm yields a product with the optimum properties. A range of dispersants was successfully used to disperse and mill the TiO₂. Both organic and inorganic dispersants were used; 2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol and 1-amino-2-propanol (MIPA) and P₂O₅ and Na₂SiO₃ respectively. The surface of the nano-TiO₂ was coated with mixed oxides of silicon, aluminium, zirconium and phosphorous. Addition of the resultant coated nano-rutiles to an Isocyanate Acrylic clear coating prolonged the lifetime of that coating compared to the blank. Generally, a surface treatment based on SiO₂, Al₂O₃ and P₂O₅ was more successful than one based on ZrO₂, Al₂O₃ and P₂O₅. Higher addition levels of the surface treatment were beneficial for protecting the polymeric coating. The UV blocker products were also evaluated in a water-based acrylic, first a water-based dispersion of the UV blocker was prepared before addition to the acrylic. The dispersions and resultant acrylic thin films were evaluated using UV/Vis spectroscopy and durability assessed. The ratio of absorbance at 300:500 nm for the water-based dispersion was shown to be a good predictor of both the transparency of the resultant acrylic thin film and the durability of that film, in terms of weight loss. Macro grade titanium dioxide pigments were also prepared and coated with treatments of silica, alumina and siloxane and their photo-stabilising activity in alkyd paint film assessed and found to be directly related to the electron–hole pair mobility and trapping as determined by micro-wave spectroscopy.     

Water quality and health in northern Canada: stored drinking water and acute gastrointestinal illness in Labrador Inuit

One of the highest self-reported incidence rates of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in the global peer-reviewed literature occurs in Inuit communities in the Canadian Arctic. This high incidence of illness could be due, in part, to the consumption of contaminated water, as many northern communities face challenges related to the quality of municipal drinking water. Furthermore, many Inuit store drinking water in containers in the home, which could increase the risk of contamination between source and point-of-use (i.e., water recontamination during storage). To examine this risk, this research characterized drinking water collection and storage practices, identified potential risk factors for water contamination between source and point-of-use, and examined possible associations between drinking water contamination and self-reported AGI in the Inuit community of Rigolet, Canada. The study included a cross-sectional census survey that captured data on types of drinking water used, household practices related to drinking water (e.g., how it was collected and stored), physical characteristics of water storage containers, and self-reported AGI. Additionally, water samples were collected from all identified drinking water containers in homes and analyzed for presence of Escherichia coli and total coliforms. Despite municipally treated tap water being available in all homes, 77.6% of households had alternative sources of drinking water stored in containers, and of these containers, 25.2% tested positive for total coliforms. The use of transfer devices and water dippers (i.e., smaller bowls or measuring cups) for the collection and retrieval of water from containers were both significantly associated with increased odds of total coliform presence in stored water (OR_{transfer device} = 3.4, 95% CI 1.2–11.7; OR_dipper = 13.4, 95% CI 3.8–47.1). Twenty-eight-day period prevalence of self-reported AGI during the month before the survey was 17.2% (95% CI 13.0–22.5), which yielded an annual incidence rate of 2.4 cases per person per year (95% CI 1.8–3.1); no water-related risk factors were significantly associated with AGI. Considering the high prevalence of, and risk factors associated with, indicator bacteria in drinking water stored in containers, potential exposure to waterborne pathogens may be minimized through interventions at the household level.     

Generation of Priority Research Questions to Inform Conservation Policy and Management at a National Level

Abstract: Integrating knowledge from across the natural and social sciences is necessary to effectively address societal tradeoffs between human use of biological diversity and its preservation. Collaborative processes can change the ways decision makers think about scientific evidence, enhance levels of mutual trust and credibility, and advance the conservation policy discourse. Canada has responsibility for a large fraction of some major ecosystems, such as boreal forests, Arctic tundra, wetlands, and temperate and Arctic oceans. Stressors to biological diversity within these ecosystems arise from activities of the country's resource‐based economy, as well as external drivers of environmental change. Effective management is complicated by incongruence between ecological and political boundaries and conflicting perspectives on social and economic goals. Many knowledge gaps about stressors and their management might be reduced through targeted, timely research. We identify 40 questions that, if addressed or answered, would advance research that has a high probability of supporting development of effective policies and management strategies for species, ecosystems, and ecological processes in Canada. A total of 396 candidate questions drawn from natural and social science disciplines were contributed by individuals with diverse organizational affiliations. These were collaboratively winnowed to 40 by our team of collaborators. The questions emphasize understanding ecosystems, the effects and mitigation of climate change, coordinating governance and management efforts across multiple jurisdictions, and examining relations between conservation policy and the social and economic well‐being of Aboriginal peoples. The questions we identified provide potential links between evidence from the conservation sciences and formulation of policies for conservation and resource management. Our collaborative process of communication and engagement between scientists and decision makers for generating and prioritizing research questions at a national level could be a model for similar efforts beyond Canada.     

Community vulnerability to the health effects of climate change among indigenous populations in the Peruvian Amazon: a case study from Panaillo and Nuevo Progreso

This paper presents the results of an exploratory study working with two Amazonian communities in Peru to identify key climate-related health risks from the perspective of local residents, and characterize how these risks are experienced and managed. The work adopts a vulnerability-based approach and utilizes participatory methodologies to document and examine local perspectives on vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Thirty nine community members were engaged in participatory photography (photovoice), and rapid rural appraisal workshops were conducted with a total 40 participants. Contextual information was obtained from 34 semi-structured interviews with key informants and participant observation during fieldwork. Three climate-related health risks were identified by the communities as pressing issues (food insecurity, water insecurity, and vector-borne disease), all of which are climate-dependent and reported to be being affected by observed changes in climatic conditions. Sensitivity to these risks is high due to social and economic disadvantages which force people to live in suboptimal conditions, partake in dangerous activities, and engage in unhealthy behaviors. Traditional approaches to health and strong social networks are important in moderating health risks, but are placed under increasing stress in the context of local social and economic changes due to larger scale influences, including resource development, deforestation, and changing social relations.     

Spatial and temporal drivers of zoonotic pathogen contamination of an agricultural watershed

In regions where animal agriculture is prominent, such as southern Alberta, higher rates of gastrointestinal illness have been reported when compared with nonagricultural regions. This difference in the rate of illness is thought to be a result of increased zoonotic pathogen exposure through environmental sources such as water. In this study, temporal and spatial factors associated with bacterial pathogen contamination of the Oldman River, which transverses this region, were analyzed using classification and regression tree analysis. Significantly higher levels of fecal indicators; more frequent isolations of Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Salmonella enterica spp.; and higher rates of detection of pig-specific Bacteroides markers occurred at downstream sites than at upstream sites, suggesting additive stream inputs. Fecal indicator densities were also significantly higher when any one of these three bacterial pathogens was present and where there were higher total animal manure units; however, occasionally pathogens were present when fecal indicator levels were low or undetectable. Overall, Salmonella spp., Campylobacter spp., and E. coli O157:H7 presence was associated with season, animal manure units, and total rainfall on the day of sampling and 3 d in advance of sampling. Several of the environmental variables analyzed in this study appear to influence pathogen prevalence and therefore may be useful in predicting water quality and safety and in the improvement of watershed management practices in this and other agricultural regions.     

Impact of riparian zone protection from cattle on nutrient, bacteria, F-coliphage, and loading of an intermittent stream

This 5-yr study compared, via an upstream-downstream experimental design, nutrient and microbial water quality of an intermittent stream running through a small pasture (～2.5 animals ha) where cattle are restricted from the riparian zone (restricted cattle access [RCA]) and where cattle have unrestricted access to the stream (unrestricted cattle access [URCA]). Fencing in the RCA excluded pasturing cattle to within ～3 to 5 m of the stream. Approximately 88% (26/32) of all comparisons of mean contaminant load reduction for lower, higher, and all stream flow conditions during the 5-yr study indicated net contaminant load reductions in the RCA; for the URCA, this percentage was 38% (12/32). For all flow conditions, mean percent load reductions in the RCA for nutrients and bacteria plus F-coliphage were 24 and 23%, respectively. These respective percentages for the URCA were -9 and -57% (positive values are reductions; negative values are increases). However, potentially as a result of protected wildlife habitat in the RCA, the mean percent load reduction for for "all flow" was -321% for the RCA and 60% for the URCA; for , these respective percentages were -209% (RCA) and 73% (URCA). For "all flow" situations, mean load reductions for the RCA were significantly greater ( < 0.1) than those from the URCA for NH-N, dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), total coliform, , and . For "high flow" situations, mean load reductions were significantly greater for the RCA for DRP, total coliform, and . For "low flow" conditions, significantly greater mean load reductions were in favor of the RCA for DRP, total P, total coliforms, fecal coliforms, , and . In no case were mean pollutant loads in the URCA significantly higher than RCA pollutant loads. Restricting pasturing livestock to within 3 to 5 m of intermittent streams can improve water quality; however, water quality impairment can occur if livestock have unrestricted access to a stream.