Maximizing Offspring Production While Maintaining Genetic Diversity in Supplemental Breeding Programs of Highly Fecund Managed Species

Abstract:  Supplemental breeding is an intensive population management strategy wherein adults are captured from nature and spawned in controlled settings, and the resulting offspring are later released into the wild. To be effective, supplemental breeding programs require crossing strategies that maximize offspring production while maintaining genetic diversity within each supplemental year class. We used computer simulations to assess the efficacy of different mating designs to jointly maximize offspring production and maintain high levels of genetic diversity (as measured by the effective population size) under a variety of biological conditions particularly relevant to species with high fecundity and external fertilization, such as many fishes. We investigated four basic supplemental breeding designs involving either monogamous pairings or complete factorial designs (in which every female is mated to every male and vice versa), each with or without the added stipulation that all breeders contribute equally to the total reproductive output. In general, complete factorial designs that did not equalize parental contributions came closest to the goal of maximizing offspring production while still maintaining relatively large effective population sizes. Next, we estimated the effective population size of 10 different supplemental year classes within the breeding program of the robust redhorse (Moxostoma robustum). Two year classes failed to produce progeny, whereas successful year classes used partial factorial designs to realize effective sizes ranging from 2 to 26 individuals. On average, a complete factorial design could increase the effective size of each robust redhorse supplemental year class by 19%.     

Inhibition of Amazon Deforestation and Fire by Parks and Indigenous Lands

Abstract:  Conservation scientists generally agree that many types of protected areas will be needed to protect tropical forests. But little is known of the comparative performance of inhabited and uninhabited reserves in slowing the most extreme form of forest disturbance: conversion to agriculture. We used satellite-based maps of land cover and fire occurrence in the Brazilian Amazon to compare the performance of large (>10,000 ha) uninhabited (parks) and inhabited (indigenous lands, extractive reserves, and national forests) reserves. Reserves significantly reduced both deforestation and fire. Deforestation was 1.7 (extractive reserves) to 20 (parks) times higher along the outside versus the inside of the reserve perimeters and fire occurrence was 4 (indigenous lands) to 9 (national forests) times higher. No strong difference in the inhibition of deforestation ( p = 0.11) or fire ( p = 0.34) was found between parks and indigenous lands. However, uninhabited reserves tended to be located away from areas of high deforestation and burning rates. In contrast, indigenous lands were often created in response to frontier expansion, and many prevented deforestation completely despite high rates of deforestation along their boundaries. The inhibitory effect of indigenous lands on deforestation was strong after centuries of contact with the national society and was not correlated with indigenous population density. Indigenous lands occupy one-fifth of the Brazilian Amazon—five times the area under protection in parks—and are currently the most important barrier to Amazon deforestation. As the protected-area network expands from 36% to 41% of the Brazilian Amazon over the coming years, the greatest challenge will be successful reserve implementation in high-risk areas of frontier expansion as indigenous lands are strengthened. This success will depend on a broad base of political support.     

Generation of Priority Research Questions to Inform Conservation Policy and Management at a National Level

Abstract: Integrating knowledge from across the natural and social sciences is necessary to effectively address societal tradeoffs between human use of biological diversity and its preservation. Collaborative processes can change the ways decision makers think about scientific evidence, enhance levels of mutual trust and credibility, and advance the conservation policy discourse. Canada has responsibility for a large fraction of some major ecosystems, such as boreal forests, Arctic tundra, wetlands, and temperate and Arctic oceans. Stressors to biological diversity within these ecosystems arise from activities of the country's resource‐based economy, as well as external drivers of environmental change. Effective management is complicated by incongruence between ecological and political boundaries and conflicting perspectives on social and economic goals. Many knowledge gaps about stressors and their management might be reduced through targeted, timely research. We identify 40 questions that, if addressed or answered, would advance research that has a high probability of supporting development of effective policies and management strategies for species, ecosystems, and ecological processes in Canada. A total of 396 candidate questions drawn from natural and social science disciplines were contributed by individuals with diverse organizational affiliations. These were collaboratively winnowed to 40 by our team of collaborators. The questions emphasize understanding ecosystems, the effects and mitigation of climate change, coordinating governance and management efforts across multiple jurisdictions, and examining relations between conservation policy and the social and economic well‐being of Aboriginal peoples. The questions we identified provide potential links between evidence from the conservation sciences and formulation of policies for conservation and resource management. Our collaborative process of communication and engagement between scientists and decision makers for generating and prioritizing research questions at a national level could be a model for similar efforts beyond Canada.     

Significance of Sighting Rate in Inferring Extinction and Threat

Abstract:  We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval in which, increasingly, experts are required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species' range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. Unfortunately, many species are only known through a few "chance" sightings or a handful of specimens, and therefore extinction may be even harder to ascertain. Several methods have been proposed for estimating the probability of extinction. However, comparison within and between species is difficult because of variations in sighting rates. We applied a probabilistic method that incorporates sighting rate to the sighting record of Vietnamese slipper orchids ( Paphiopedilum ). The method generates a probability that another sighting will occur given the previous sighting rate and the time since last observation. This allows greater comparability between species discovered at different times. Its predictions were more highly correlated with the World Conservation Union criteria than previous methods. Trends in data collection and the political climate of a country, which affects access to material, are important potential sources of variation that affect sighting rates. A lack of understanding of the process by which data are generated makes inferring extinction from sighting records difficult because extinction status depends on how the sighting rate varies. However, such methods allow rapid conservation prioritization of taxa that are poorly known and would otherwise go unassessed.     

Predicting Bird Species Distributions in Reconstructed Landscapes

Abstract:  Landscape optimization for biodiversity requires prediction of species distributions under alternative revegetation scenarios. We used Bayesian model averaging with logistic regression to predict probabilities of occurrence for 61 species of birds within highly fragmented box–ironbark forests of central Victoria, Australia. We used topographic, edaphic, and climatic variables as predictors so that the models could be applied to areas where vegetation has been cleared but may be replanted. Models were evaluated with newly acquired, independent data collected in large blocks of remnant native vegetation. Successful predictions were obtained for 18 of 45 woodland species (40%). Model averaging produced more accurate predictions than "single best" models. Models were most successful for smaller-bodied species that probably depend on particular vegetation types. Predictions for larger, generalist species, and seasonal migrants were less successful, partly because of changes in species distributions between model building (1995–1997) and validation (2004–2005) surveys. We used validated models to project occurrence probabilities for individual species across a 12,000-km² region, assuming native vegetation was present. These predictions are intended to be used as inputs, along with landscape context and temporal dynamics, into optimization algorithms to prioritize revegetation. Longer-term data sets to accommodate temporal dynamics are needed to improve the predictive accuracy of models.     

Local Participation in Natural Resource Monitoring: a Characterization of Approaches

Abstract: The monitoring of trends in the status of species or habitats is routine in developed countries, where it is funded by the state or large nongovernmental organizations and often involves large numbers of skilled amateur volunteers. Far less monitoring of natural resources takes place in developing countries, where state agencies have small budgets, there are fewer skilled professionals or amateurs, and socioeconomic conditions prevent development of a culture of volunteerism. The resulting lack of knowledge about trends in species and habitats presents a serious challenge for detecting, understanding, and reversing declines in natural resource values. International environmental agreements require signatories undertake systematic monitoring of their natural resources, but no system exists to guide the development and expansion of monitoring schemes. To help develop such a protocol, we suggest a typology of monitoring categories, defined by their degree of local participation, ranging from no local involvement with monitoring undertaken by professional researchers to an entirely local effort with monitoring undertaken by local people. We assessed the strengths and weaknesses of each monitoring category and the potential of each to be sustainable in developed or developing countries. Locally based monitoring is particularly relevant in developing countries, where it can lead to rapid decisions to solve the key threats affecting natural resources, can empower local communities to better manage their resources, and can refine sustainable‐use strategies to improve local livelihoods. Nevertheless, we recognize that the accuracy and precision of the monitoring undertaken by local communities in different situations needs further study and field protocols need to be further developed to get the best from the unrealized potential of this approach. A challenge to conservation biologists is to identify and establish the monitoring system most relevant to a particular situation and to develop methods to integrate outputs from across the spectrum of monitoring schemes to produce wider indices of natural resources that capture the strengths of each.     

Indigenous Resource Rights and Mining Companies in North America and Australia

A Contrast is made between indigenous resource rights in North America and Australia. The extent to which the indigenous people of these two continents may prevent mining and exploration on their land is examined. It is demonstrated that whereas some Australian Aboriginals have recently acquired limited veto rights to prevent development, the veto rights of the indigenous people in North America are long-standing and unqualified. In addition, the terms and conditions of mining and petroleum agreements which have been entered into by indigenous people in North America are discussed. These agreements are shown to be better than agreements signed with Australian Aboriginals.     

Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Minimum-Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae

Abstract:  Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1-minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas, using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km²) at all times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate-change models and the species' habitat-suitability and dispersal models.