Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: The case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.     

Planning for robust reserve networks using uncertainty analysis

Planning land-use for biodiversity conservation frequently involves computer-assisted reserve selection algorithms. Typically such algorithms operate on matrices of species presence–absence in sites, or on species-specific distributions of model predicted probabilities of occurrence in grid cells. There are practically always errors in input data—erroneous species presence–absence data, structural and parametric uncertainty in predictive habitat models, and lack of correspondence between temporal presence and long-run persistence. Despite these uncertainties, typical reserve selection methods proceed as if there is no uncertainty in the data or models. Having two conservation options of apparently equal biological value, one would prefer the option whose value is relatively insensitive to errors in planning inputs. In this work we show how uncertainty analysis for reserve planning can be implemented within a framework of information-gap decision theory, generating reserve designs that are robust to uncertainty. Consideration of uncertainty involves modifications to the typical objective functions used in reserve selection. Search for robust-optimal reserve structures can still be implemented via typical reserve selection optimization techniques, including stepwise heuristics, integer-programming and stochastic global search.     

Detection capacity,information gaps and the design of surveillance programs for invasive forest pests

Integrated pest risk maps and their underlying assessments provide broad guidance for establishing surveillance programs for invasive species, but they rarely account for knowledge gaps regarding the pest of interest or how these can be reduced. In this study we demonstrate how the somewhat competing notions of robustness to uncertainty and potential knowledge gains could be used in prioritizing large-scale surveillance activities. We illustrate this approach with the example of an invasive pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. First, we formulate existing knowledge about the pest into a stochastic model and use the model to estimate the expected utility of surveillance efforts across the landscape. The expected utility accounts for the distribution, abundance and susceptibility of the host resource as well as the value of timely S. noctilio detections. Next, we make use of the info-gap decision theory framework to explore two alternative pest surveillance strategies. The first strategy aims for timely, certain detections and attempts to maximize the robustness to uncertainty about S. noctilio behavior; the second strategy aims to maximize the potential knowledge gain about the pest via unanticipated (i.e., opportune) detections. The results include a set of spatial outputs for each strategy that can be used independently to prioritize surveillance efforts. However, we demonstrate an alternative approach in which these outputs are combined via the Pareto ranking technique into a single priority map that outlines the survey regions with the best trade-offs between both surveillance strategies.     

Long-term organic fertilizer-induced carbonate neoformation increases carbon sequestration in soil

Environmental Chemistry Letters - Soil carbon is major driver of climate in the long term because soil can either decrease global warming by carbon sequestration or increase warming by...     

A novel Vibrio sp. pathogen of the coral Pocillopora damicornis

A coral pathogen was isolated from the diseased tissue of Pocillopora damicornis in Zanzibar. The pathogenic bacterium, referred to as Vibrio coralyticus YB, was classified as a member of the genus Vibrio. Based on its 16S rDNA sequence, V. coralyticus is probably a new species. In controlled aquaria experiments at 26-29°C, inoculation of pure cultures of V. coralyticus YB either into the seawater or by direct contact onto the coral caused tissue lysis of P. damicornis fragments. At 29°C, lysis began as small white spots after 3-5 days, rapidly spreading so that by 2 weeks the entire tissue was destroyed, leaving only the intact bare skeleton. When an infected diseased coral was placed in direct contact with a healthy one, the healthy coral lysed in 2-4 days, further indicating that the disease was contagious. Inoculation with as few as 30 bacteria ml^-1 was sufficient to infect and lyse corals. Seawater temperature was a critical variable for the infectious process: infection and lysis occurred rapidly at 27-29°C, slowly at 26°C and was not observed at 25°C. The data suggest that the presence of V. coralyticus YB, even in low numbers, in seawater surrounding a coral reef will lead to tissue destruction of P. damicornis, when seawater temperatures rise.     

Price-based vs. quantity-based environmental regulation under Knightian uncertainty: an info-gap robust satisficing perspective

Conventional wisdom among environmental economists is that the relative slopes of the marginal social benefit and marginal social cost functions determine whether a price-based or quantity-based environmental regulation leads to higher expected social welfare. We revisit the choice between price-based vs. quantity-based environmental regulation under Knightian uncertainty; that is, when uncertainty cannot be modeled with known moments of probability distributions. Under these circumstances, the policy objective cannot be to maximize the expected net benefits of emissions control. Instead, we evaluate an emissions tax and an aggregate abatement standard in terms of maximizing the range of uncertainty under which the welfare loss from error in the estimates of the marginal benefits and costs of emissions control can be limited. The main result of our work is that the same criterion involving the relative slopes of the marginal benefit and cost functions determines whether price-based or quantity-based control is more robust to unstructured uncertainty. Hence, not only does the relative slopes criterion lead to the policy that maximizes the expected net benefits of control under structured uncertainty, it also leads to the policy that maximizes robustness to unstructured uncertainty.     

Size distributions of manure particles released under simulated rainfall

Manure and animal waste deposited on cropland and grazing lands serve as a source of microorganisms, some of which may be pathogenic. These microorganisms are released along with particles of dissolved manure during rainfall events. Relatively little if anything is known about the amounts and sizes of manure particles released during rainfall, that subsequently may serve as carriers, abode, and nutritional source for microorganisms. The objective of this work was to obtain and present the first experimental data on sizes of bovine manure particles released to runoff during simulated rainfall and leached through soil during subsequent infiltration. Experiments were conducted using 200 cm long boxes containing turfgrass soil sod; the boxes were designed so that rates of manure dissolution and subsequent infiltration and runoff could be monitored independently. Dairy manure was applied on the upper portion of boxes. Simulated rainfall (ca. 32.4 mm h(-1)) was applied for 90 min on boxes with stands of either live or dead grass. Electrical conductivity, turbidity, and particle size distributions obtained from laser diffractometry were determined in manure runoff and soil leachate samples. Turbidity of leachates and manure runoff samples decreased exponentially. Turbidity of manure runoff samples was on average 20% less than turbidity of soil leachate samples. Turbidity of leachate samples from boxes with dead grass was on average 30% less than from boxes with live grass. Particle size distributions in manure runoff and leachate suspensions remained remarkably stable after 15 min of runoff initiation, although the turbidity continued to decrease. Particles had the median diameter of 3.8 microm, and 90% of particles were between 0.6 and 17.8 microm. The particle size distributions were not affected by the grass status. Because manure particles are known to affect transport and retention of microbial pathogens in soil, more information needs to be collected about the concurrent release of pathogens and manure particles during rainfall events.     

Trading-off risks from predators and from aggressive hosts

Some birds exploit the aggressiveness of others that are more capable of defending their nests against predators. Usually this behaviour is selected for through improved breeding success for the timid (associate) species. The risk of predation from the more aggressive (host) species is generally rare but may select against the behaviour. The breeding success of red-breasted geese (Branta ruficollis) nesting in association with peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) in arctic Siberia was investigated from 1995 to 1999. Nest-predation risk for geese within colonies was positively correlated with distance from the falcons' eyries and negatively correlated with colony size. Though predation risk from the hosts was low, the risk of being attacked by the falcons was high, which we suggest explains why the likelihood of geese deserting their nests was negatively correlated with distance from the eyries. The optimal distance geese nested from eyries was 46 m, though only 37% of pairs managed to nest within 20 m of this. In years with low predation pressure, some geese within colonies nested farther from the falcons. This may be the first evidence to suggest a trade-off between costs and benefits in a nesting association, both of which are directly mediated by the host's nest defence behaviour.     

Effect of streambed bacteria release on E. coli concentrations: Monitoring and modeling with the modified SWAT

Streambed sediment has been attracting attention as a reservoir for bacteria, including pathogenic strains. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been augmented with a bacteria transport subroutine in SWAT2005 in which bacteria die-off is the only in-stream process. The purpose of this study was to develop the partial model of sediment-associated bacteria transport in stream and to evaluate the potential significance of streambed Escherichia coli (E. coli) release and deposition within the SWAT microbial water quality simulations. Streambed E. coli release and deposition were simulated based on the sediment resuspension and deposition modules in SWAT. The modified SWAT was applied to the Little Cove Creek watershed, Pennsylvania, which has forestry and dairy pasture landuses. Temporal changes in sediment E. coli concentrations were derived from monitoring data rather than from a streambed bacteria population model. Sensitivity analyses and calibrations were separately conducted for both hydrologic and bacteria parameters. Hydrologic calibration characterized soils in the watershed as pervious and thus the surface runoff was only moderately contributing to the streamflow. However, the surface runoff carried large numbers of E. coli to the stream, and sediment resuspension contributed to the persistent concentration of E. coli in stream water. Although the uncertainty of E. coli concentrations in streambed sediments and from wildlife probably affected the performance of the modified SWAT model, this study qualitatively confirmed the significance of modeling E. coli release from streambed and deposition for the SWAT microbial water quality simulations. Further developments should include modeling dynamics of bacteria populations within streambeds.