Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.     

Assessing groundwater quality and its sustainability in Joypurhat district of Bangladesh using GIS and multivariate statistical approaches

Sustainable groundwater quality is a key global concern and has become a major issue of disquiets in most parts of the world including Bangladesh. Hence, the assessment of groundwater quality is an important study to ensure its sustainability for various uses. In this study, a combination of multivariate statistics, geographical information system (GIS) and geochemical approaches was employed to evaluate the groundwater quality and its sustainability in Joypurhat district of Bangladesh. The results showed that the groundwater samples are mainly Ca–Mg–HCO₃ type. Principal component analysis (PCA) results revealed that geogenic sources (rock weathering and cation exchange) followed by anthropogenic activities (domestic sewage and agro-chemicals) were the major factors governing the groundwater quality of the study area. Furthermore, the results of PCA are validated using the cluster analysis and correlation matrix analysis. Based on the groundwater quality index (GWQI), it is found that all the groundwater samples belong to excellent to good water quality domains for human consumption, although iron, fluoride and iodide contaminated to the groundwater, which do not pose any significant health hazard according to World Health Organization’s and Bangladesh’s guideline values. The results of irrigation water quality index including sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), permeability index and sodium percentage (Na %) suggested that most of the groundwater samples are good quality water for agricultural uses. The spatial distribution of the measured values of GWQI, SAR, Fe (iron), EC (electrical conductivity) and TH (total hardness) were spatially mapped using the GIS tool in the study area.     

Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Variation in perception of environmental change in nine Solomon Islands communities: implications for securing fairness in community-based adaptation

Community-based approaches are pursued in recognition of the need for place-based responses to environmental change that integrate local understandings of risk and vulnerability. Yet the potential for fair adaptation is intimately linked to how variations in perceptions of environmental change and risk are treated. There is, however, little empirical evidence of the extent and nature of variations in risk perception in and between multiple community settings. Here, we rely on data from 231 semi-structured interviews conducted in nine communities in Western Province, Solomon Islands, to statistically model different perceptions of risk and change within and between communities. Overall, people were found to be less likely to perceive environmental changes in the marine environment than they were for terrestrial systems. The distance to the nearest market town (which may be a proxy for exposure to commercial logging and degree of involvement with the market economy), and gender had the greatest overall statistical effects on perceptions of risk. Yet, we also find that significant environmental change is underreported in communities, while variations in perception are not always easily related to commonly assumed fault lines of vulnerability. The findings suggest that there is an urgent need for methods that engage with the drivers of perceptions as part of community-based approaches. In particular, it is important to explicitly account for place, complexity and diversity of environmental risk perceptions, and we reinforce calls to engage seriously with underlying questions of power, culture, identity and practice that influence adaptive capacity and risk perception.

     

Genetic Diversity of Lepilemur mustelinus ruficaudatus, a Nocturnal Lemur of Madagascar

The genetic polymorphism of natural populations of Lepilemur mustelinus ruficaudatus was studied by protein electrophoresis. We sampled blood from 72 individuals from four populations separated by geographic or anthropogenic barriers from southwestern Madagascar. Six out of 22 enzyme loci showed genetic variation with a degree of polymorphism of 0.273. The expected and observed degree of genetic heterozygosity over all loci is similar to that of other primates (H_e = 0.058, H_o = 0.036). The F-statistics revealed that the four subpopulations were similar with respect to gene structure (F_ST = 0.065, p = 0.016), but the genotypic structures within subpopulations were inconsistent with random mating. For the total of the four subpopulations the proportion of heterozygous individuals was significantly smaller than expected under random mating (F_IS = 0.373, F_IT = 0.414, p < 0.01). These results correspond closely to what is expected considering the low migration ability of individuals of L. m ruficaudatus leading to small and rather isolated inbred populations.     

Treibhausgasemissionen zukünftiger Erdgasbereitstellung für Deutschland

Ohne Zusammenfassung Original erschienen in UWSF – Z Umweltchem ?kotox 20(2):133–144 (2008) DOI: Herausgeber: Martin Pehnt und Eckard Helmers     

Development of a test method against hot alkaline chemical splashes.

High temperature alkaline chemical liquids have caused injuries and hazardous situations in Finnish pulp manufacturing mills. There are no requirements and/or test method standards concerning protection against high temperature alkaline chemical splashes. This paper describes the test method development process to test and identify materials appropriate for hot liquid chemical hazard protection. In the first phase, the liquid was spilled through a stainless steel funnel and the protection performance was evaluated using a polyvinyl chloride (PVC) film under the test material. After several tentative improvements, a graphite crucible was used for heating and spilling the chemical, and a copper-coated K-type thermometer with 4 independent measuring areas was designed to measure the temperature under the material samples. The thermometer was designed to respond quickly so that peak temperatures could be measured. The main problem was to keep the spilled amount of chemical constant, which unfortunately resulted in significant variability in data.     

Effects of calcium hydroxide and calcium chloride addition to bentonite in iron ore pelletization.

Pyrite ash is created as waste from the roasting of pyrite ores during the production of sulphuric acid. These processes generate great amounts of pyrite ash waste that is generally land filled. This creates serious environmental pollution due to the release of acids and toxic substances. Pyrite ash waste can be utilized in the iron production industry as a blast furnace feed to process this waste and prevent environmental pollution. The essential parameters affecting the pelletization process of pyrite ash were studied using bentonite as a binder. Experiments were then carried out using bentonite and a mixture of bentonite with calcium hydroxide and calcium chloride in order to make the bentonite more effective. The metallurgical properties of pyrite ash, bentonite, calcium hydroxide, calcium chloride, a mixture of these and sintered pellets were studied using X-ray analysis. The crushing strength tests were carried out to investigate the strength of pyrite ash waste pellets. The results of these analyses showed that pyrite ash can be agglomerated to pellets and used in the iron production industry as a blast furnace feed. The crushing strength of the pellets containing calcium hydroxide and calcium chloride in addition to bentonite was better than the strength of pellets prepared using only bentonite binder.