Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Sediment Yield in a Snow‐Dominated Semiarid Mountainous Watershed

This study investigates the impact of climate and land use change on the magnitude and timing of streamflow and sediment yield in a snow‐dominated mountainous watershed in Salt Lake County, Utah using a scenario approach and the Hydrological Simulation Program — FORTRAN model for the 2040s (year 2035–2044) and 2090s (year 2085–2094). The climate scenarios were statistically and dynamically downscaled from global climate models. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes were estimated in two ways — from a regional planning scenario and from a deterministic model. Results indicate the mean daily streamflow in the Jordan River watershed will increase by an amount ranging from 11.2% to 14.5% in the 2040s and from 6.8% to 15.3% in the 2090s. The respective increases in sediment load in the 2040s and 2090s is projected to be 6.7% and 39.7% in the canyons and about 7.4% to 14.2% in the Jordan valley. The historical 50th percentile timing of streamflow and sediment load is projected to be shifted earlier by three to four weeks by mid‐century and four to eight weeks by late‐century. The projected streamflow and sediment load results establish a nonlinear relationship with each other and are highly sensitive to projected climate change. The predicted changes in streamflow and sediment yield will have implications for water supply, flood control and stormwater management.     

CLIMATE CHHANGE SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT ON UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN STREAMFLOWS USING SWAT1

ABSTRACT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the effects of potential future climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Calibration and validation of SWAT were performed using monthly stream flows for 1968–1987 and 1988–1997, respectively. The R² and Nash‐Sutcliffe simulation efficiency values computed for the monthly comparisons were 0.74 and 0.69 for the calibration period and 0.82 and 0.81 for the validation period. The effects of nine 30‐year (1968 to 1997) sensitivity runs and six climate change scenarios were then analyzed, relative to a scenario baseline. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ to 660 ppmv (while holding other climate variables constant) resulted in a 36 percent increase in average annual streamflow while average annual flow changes of ?49, ?26, 28, and 58 percent were predicted for precipitation change scenarios of ?20, ?10, 10, and 20 percent, respectively. Mean annual streamflow changes of 51,10, 2, ?6, 38, and 27 percent were predicted by SWAT in response to climate change projections generated from the CISRO‐RegCM2, CCC, CCSR, CISRO‐Mk2, GFDL, and HadCMS general circulation model scenarios. High seasonal variability was also predicted within individual climate change scenarios and large variability was indicated between scenarios within specific months. Overall, the climate change scenarios reveal a large degree of uncertainty in current climate change forecasts for the region. The results also indicate that the simulated UMRB hydrology is very sensitive to current forecasted future climate changes.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES OF THE TSENGWEN CREEK WATERSHED IN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: This study presents a methodology to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in the Tsengwen creek watershed, Taiwan. Tsengwen reservoir, located in the Tsengwen creek watershed, is a multipurpose reservoir with a primary function to supply water for the ChiaNan Irrigation District. A simulation procedure was developed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources system. The simulation procedure includes a streamflow model, a weather generation model, a sequent peak algorithm, and a risk assessment process. Three climate change scenarios were constructed based on the predictions of three General Circulation Models (CCCM, GFDL, and GISS). The impacts of climate change on streamflows were simulated, and, for each climate change scenario, the agricultural water demand was adjusted based on the change of potential evapotranspiration. Simulation results indicated that the climate change may increase the annual and seasonal streamflows in the Tsengwen creek watershed. The increase in streamflows during wet periods may result in serious flooding. In addition, despite the increase in streamflows, the risk of water deficit may still increase from between 4 and 7 percent to between 7 and 13 percent due to higher agricultural water demand. The simulation results suggest that the reservoir capacity may need to be expanded. In response to the climate change, four strategies are suggested: (1) strengthen flood mitigation measures, (2) enhance drought protection strategies, (3) develop new water resources technology, and (4) educate the public.     

Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid‐21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid‐21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid‐21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30‐40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.     

Spatial and Temporal Evaluation of Hydrological Response to Climate and Land Use Change in Three South Dakota Watersheds

This study analyzed changes in hydrology between two recent decades (1980s and 2010s) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three representative watersheds in South Dakota: Bad River, Skunk Creek, and Upper Big Sioux River watersheds. Two SWAT models were created over two discrete time periods (1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014) for each watershed. National Land Cover Datasets 1992 and 2011 were, respectively, ingested into 1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014 models, along with corresponding weather data, to enable comparison of annual and seasonal runoff, soil water content, evapotranspiration (ET), water yield, and percolation between these two decades. Simulation results based on the calibrated models showed that surface runoff, soil water content, water yield, and percolation increased in all three watersheds. Elevated ET was also apparent, except in Skunk Creek watershed. Differences in annual water balance components appeared to follow changes in land use more closely than variation in precipitation amounts, although seasonal variation in precipitation was reflected in seasonal surface runoff. Subbasin‐scale spatial analyses revealed noticeable increases in water balance components mostly in downstream parts of Bad River and Skunk Creek watersheds, and the western part of Upper Big Sioux River watershed. Results presented in this study provide some insight into recent changes in hydrological processes in South Dakota watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Influence of Bioenergy Crop Production and Climate Change on Ecosystem Services

Land use change can significantly affect the provision of ecosystem services and the effects could be exacerbated by projected climate change. We quantify ecosystem services of bioenergy‐based land use change and estimate the potential changes of ecosystem services due to climate change projections. We considered 17 bioenergy‐based scenarios with Miscanthus, switchgrass, and corn stover as candidate bioenergy feedstock. Soil and Water Assessment Tool simulations of biomass/grain yield, hydrology, and water quality were used to quantify ecosystem services freshwater provision (FWPI), food (FPI) and fuel provision, erosion regulation (ERI), and flood regulation (FRI). Nine climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase‐3 were used to quantify the potential climate change variability. Overall, ecosystem services of heavily row cropped Wildcat Creek watershed were lower than St. Joseph River watershed which had more forested and perennial pasture lands. The provision of ecosystem services for both study watersheds were improved with bioenergy production scenarios. Miscanthus in marginal lands of Wildcat Creek (9% of total area) increased FWPI by 27% and ERI by 14% and decreased FPI by 12% from the baseline. For St. Joseph watershed, Miscanthus in marginal lands (18% of total area) improved FWPI by 87% and ERI by 23% while decreasing FPI by 46%. The relative impacts of land use change were considerably larger than climate change impacts in this paper. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Development of a SWAT Patch for Better Estimation of Sediment Yield in Steep Sloping Watersheds1

Abstract: The watershed scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model divides watersheds into smaller subwatersheds for simulation of rainfall‐runoff and sediment loading at the field level and routing through stream networks. Typically, the SWAT model first needs to be calibrated and validated for accurate estimation through adjustment of sensitive input parameters (i.e., Curve Number values, USLE P, slope and slope‐length, and so on). However, in some instances, SWAT‐simulated results are greatly affected by the watershed delineation and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) cell size. In this study, the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II was developed for steep sloping watersheds, and its performance was evaluated for various threshold values and DEM cell size scenarios when delineating subwatersheds using the SWAT model. The SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II was developed using the ArcView GIS Avenue program and Spatial Analyst libraries. The SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II improves upon the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch I because it reflects the topographic factor in calculating the field slope‐length of Hydrologic Response Units in the SWAT model. The simulated sediment value for 321 subwatersheds (watershed delineation threshold value of 25 ha) is greater than that for 43 subwatersheds (watershed delineation threshold value of 200 ha) by 201% without applying the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II. However, when the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II was applied, the difference in simulated sediment yield decreases for the same scenario (i.e., difference in simulated sediment with 321 subwatersheds and 43 subwatersheds) was 12%. The simulated sediment value for DEM cell size of 50 m is greater than that for DEM cell size of 10 m by 19.8% without the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II. However, the difference becomes smaller (3.4% difference) between 50 and 10 m with the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II for the DEM scenarios. As shown in this study, the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II can reduce differences in simulated sediment values for various watershed delineation and DEM cell size scenarios. Without the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II, variations in the SWAT‐simulated results using various watershed delineation and DEM cell size scenarios could be greater than those from input parameter calibration. Thus, the results obtained in this study show that the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II should be used when simulating hydrology and sediment yield for steep sloping watersheds (especially if average slope of the subwatershed is >25%) for more accurate simulation of hydrology and sediment using the SWAT model. The SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II is available at http://www.EnvSys.co.kr/~swat for free download.     

Assessment of Future Climate Change Impact on Water Quality of Chungju Lake,South Korea,Using WASP Coupled with SWAT

This study is to evaluate the future potential impact of climate change on the water quality of Chungju Lake using the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP). The lake has a storage capacity of 2.75 Gm³, maximum water surface of 65.7 km², and forest‐dominant watershed of 6,642 km². The impact on the lake from the watershed was evaluated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The WASP and SWAT were calibrated and validated using the monthly water temperatures from 1998 to 2003, lake water quality data (dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen [T‐N], total phosphorus [T‐P], and chlorophyll‐a [chl‐a]) and daily dam inflow, and monthly stream water quality (sediment, T‐N, and T‐P) data. For the future climate change scenario, the MIROC3.2 HiRes A1B was downscaled for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s using the Change Factor statistical method. The 2080s temperature and precipitation showed an increase of +4.8°C and +34.4%, respectively, based on a 2000 baseline. For the 2080s watershed T‐N and T‐P loads of up to +87.3 and +19.6%, the 2080s lake T‐N and T‐P concentrations were projected to be 4.00 and 0.030 mg/l from 2.60 and 0.016 mg/l in 2000, respectively. The 2080s chl‐a concentration in the epilimnion and the maximum were 13.97 and 52.45 μg/l compared to 8.64 and 33.48 μg/l in 2000, respectively. The results show that the Chungju Lake will change from its mesotrophic state of 2000 to a eutrophic state by T‐P in the 2020s and by chl‐a in the 2080s. Editor's note: This paper is part of a featured series on Korean Hydrology. The series addresses the need for a new paradigm of river and watershed management for Korea due to climate and land use changes.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NEW YORK CITY'S WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: It has been well established that the greenhouse gas loading of the atmosphere has been increasing since the mid 19th century. Consequently, shifts in the earth's radiative balance are expected with accompanying alterations to the earth's climate. With these anticipated, and perhaps already observable, changes in both global and regional climate, managers of regional water resources seek insight to the possible impacts climate change may have on their present and future water supplies. The types and degrees of impacts that climate change may have on New York City's water supply system were assessed in a study of a watershed at Allaben, New York. Hypothetical scenarios of future climate and climate change projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used in conjunction with the WatBal hydrological model and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to ascertain how runoff and soil moisture from this watershed may change in a warmer climate. For the worst case predictions, the results indicate that within the century of the 2000s, the watershed's air temperature may increase up to about 11°F, while its precipitation and runoff may decrease by about 13 and 30 percent, respectively. If this watershed is typical of the others within the New York City water supply system, the system's managers should consider implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies in preparation for the worst of these possible future conditions.     

Runoff Simulation of the Headwaters of the Yellow River Using The SWAT Model With Three Snowmelt Algorithms1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model combined with different snowmelt algorithms was evaluated for runoff simulation of an 114,345 km² mountainous river basin (the headwaters of the Yellow River), where snowmelt is a significant process. The three snowmelt algorithms incorporated into SWAT were as follows: (1) the temperature‐index, (2) the temperature‐index plus elevation band, and (3) the energy budget based SNOW17. The SNOW17 is more complex than the temperature‐based snowmelt algorithms, and requires more detailed meteorological and topographical inputs. In order to apply the SNOW17 in the SWAT framework, SWAT was modified to operate at the pixel scale rather than the normal Hydrologic Response Unit scale. The three snowmelt algorithms were evaluated under two parameter scenarios, the default and the calibrated parameters scenarios. Under the default parameters scenario, the parameter values were determined based on a review of the current literature. The purpose of this type of evaluation was to assess the applicability of SWAT in ungauged basins, where there is little observed data available for calibration. Under the calibrated parameters scenario, the parameters were calibrated using an automatic calibration program, the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE‐UA). The purpose of this type of evaluation was to assess the applicability of SWAT in gauged basins. Two time periods (1975‐1985 and 1986‐1990) of monthly runoff data were used in this study to evaluate the performance of SWAT with different snowmelt algorithms. Under the default parameters scenario, the SWAT model with complex energy budget based SNOW17 performed the best for both time periods. Under the calibrated parameters scenario, the parameters were calibrated using monthly runoff from 1975‐1985 and validated using monthly runoff from 1986‐1990. After parameter calibration, the performance of SWAT with the three snowmelt algorithms was improved from the default parameters scenario. Further, the SWAT model with temperature‐index plus elevation band performed as well as the SWAT model with SNOW17. The SWAT model with temperature‐index algorithm performed the poorest for both time periods under both scenarios. Therefore, it is suggested that the SNOW17 model be used for modeling ungauged basins; however, for gauged basins, the SNOW17 and simple temperature‐index plus elevation band models could provide almost equally good runoff simulation results.     

Hydrological Variability and Uncertainty of Lower Missouri River Basin Under Changing Climate

The lower Missouri River Basin has experienced increasing streamflow and flooding events, with higher risk of extreme hydrologic impacts under changing climate. The newly available North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate projections were used as atmospheric forcing for Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model which runs with varying potential evapotranspiration (PET) methods to assess the hydrological change and uncertainty of 2040‐2069 over 1968‐1997. The NARCCAP temperature and precipitation predictions were refined using a bias correction method. The results show that, following the seasonal variability of precipitation, various water fluxes would increase in most seasons except the summer. Expected precipitation tends to increase in intensity with little change in frequency, triggering faster surface water concentration to form floods. The greatest streamflow increase would occur from November to February, increasing by around 10% on average. An increase of 3% occurs in the other months except for July and August in which river discharge decreases by around 2%. The climate predictions contribute more uncertainty annually, but PET algorithms gain more influence in winter or when other weather factors such as wind play a relatively more important role on evapotranspiration flux. This study predicts an even wetter environment compared to the historically very wet period, with the possibility of more flooding.     

The Influence of Forest Regrowth on the Stream Discharge in the North Carolina Piedmont Watersheds

This study focuses on the relationships of watershed runoff with historical land use/land cover (LULC) and climate trends. Over the 20th Century, LULC in the Southeast United States, particularly the North Carolina Piedmont, has evolved from an agriculture dominated to an extensively forested landscape with more recent localized urbanization. The regrowth of forest has an important influence on the hydrology of the region as it enhances ecosystem interaction with recent climate change. During 1920‐2009, the amount of precipitation in some parts of the North Carolina Piedmont forest regrowth area showed increasing trends without corresponding increments in runoff. We employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to backcast long‐term hydrologic behavior of watersheds in North Carolina with different LULC conditions: (1) LULC conversion from agricultural to forested area and (2) long‐term stable forested area. Comparing U.S. Geological Survey‐measured stream discharge with SWAT‐simulated stream discharge under the assumption of constant 2006 LULC, we found significant stream discharge underprediction by SWAT in two LULC conversion watersheds during the early simulation period (1920s) with differences gradually decreasing by the mid‐1970s. This model bias suggests that forest regrowth on abandoned agricultural land was a key factor contributing to mitigate the impact of increased precipitation on runoff due to increasing water consumption driven by changes in vegetation.     

Estimating Evapotranspiration for Dryland Cropping Systems in the Semiarid Texas High Plains Using SWAT

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most widely used watershed models for simulating hydrology in response to agricultural management practices. However, limited studies have been performed to evaluate the SWAT model's ability to estimate daily and monthly evapotranspiration (ET) in semiarid regions. ET values were simulated using ArcSWAT 2012 for a lysimeter field managed under dryland conditions at the USDA‐ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory at Bushland, Texas, and compared with measured lysimeter values from 2000 to 2010. Two scenarios were performed to compare SWAT's performance: (1) use of default plant leaf area index (LAI) values in the embedded plant database and (2) adjusted LAI values. Scenario 1 resulted in an “unsatisfactory” Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.42 and 0.38 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. Scenario 2 resulted in a “satisfactory” NSE value for the calibration period while achieving a “good” NSE of 0.70 for the validation period. SWAT generally underestimated ET at both the daily and monthly levels. Overestimation during fallow years may be due to the limitations of the pothole function used to simulate furrow diking. Users should be aware of potential errors associated with using default LAI parameters. Inaccuracies in ET estimation may also stem from errors in the plant stress functions, particularly when evaluating water management practices for dryland watersheds.     

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment1

Shrestha, Rajesh R., Yonas B. Dibike, and Terry D. Prowse, 2011. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 74‐89. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00592.x Abstract: This paper presents a modeling study on climate‐induced changes in hydrologic and nutrient fluxes in the Upper Assiniboine catchment, located in the Lake Winnipeg watershed. The hydrologic and agricultural chemical yield model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to model a 21‐year baseline (1980‐2000) and future (2042‐2062) periods with model forcings for future climates derived from three regional climate models (RCMs) and their ensemble means. The modeled future scenarios reveal that potential future changes in the climatic regime are likely to modify considerably hydrologic and nutrient fluxes. The effects of future changes in climatic variables, especially precipitation and temperature, are clearly evident in the resulting snowmelt and runoff regimes. The future hydrologic scenarios consistently show earlier onsets of spring snowmelt and discharge peaks, and higher total runoff volumes. The simulated nutrient loads closely match the dynamics of the future runoff for both nitrogen and phosphorus, in terms of earlier timing of peak loads and higher total loads. However, nutrient concentrations could decrease due to the higher rate of runoff increase. Overall, the effects of these changes on the nutrient transport regime need to be considered together with possible future changes in land use, crop type, fertilizer application, and transformation processes in the receiving water bodies.     

APPLICATION OF AN ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENTS1

ABSTRACT: A National Pilot Project (NPP) on Livestock and the Environment was initiated in 1992 to help provide solutions to environmental problems associated with livestock production. A major development of the NPP was the Comprehensive Economic and Environmental Optimization Tool‐Livestock and Poultry (CEEOT‐LP), an integrated modeling system designed to produce economic and environmental indicators for alternative policy scenarios applied to intensive livestock production watersheds. The system consists of a farm‐level economic model (FEM) and two environmental models: the field‐scale APEX model and the watershed‐level SWAT model. To date, CEEOT‐LP has been applied to two watersheds in Texas and one in Iowa. Predicted reductions in P losses for two P‐based manure application rate scenarios, relative to baseline conditions, ranged from ?4 to ?54 percent across the three watersheds; however, N loss impacts ranged from a decrease of 34 percent to an increase of 79 percent. For five other alternative scenarios that were simulated for only one watershed, N and P loss impacts ranged between a reduction of 78 percent to an increase of 20 percent. Aggregate watershed‐level economic impacts of the seven scenarios spanned a spectrum of a 27 percent decrease to a 25 percent increase in profit, relative to the baseline.     

Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Impacts of climate change on the severity and intensity of future droughts can be evaluated based on precipitation and temperature projections, multiple hydrological models, simulated hydrometeorological variables, and various drought indices. The objective of this study was to assess climate change impacts on future drought conditions and water resources in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) watershed. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model were used to simulate a Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI), a Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI), a Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI), along with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for both historical and future periods (f1: 2020‐2049, f2: 2050‐2079). The results of the SSI suggested that there was a general increase in agricultural droughts in the entire CB watershed because of increases in surface and groundwater flow and evapotranspiration. However, MPDSI and MSDI showed an overall decrease in projected drought occurrences due to the increases in precipitation in the future. The results of this study suggest that it is crucial to use multiple modeling approaches with specific drought indices that combine the effects of both precipitation and temperature changes.     

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Reliability of Water and Hydropower Supply from a Multipurpose Dam in South Korea

Future climate change is a source of growing concerns for the supply of energy and resources, and it may have significant impacts on industry and the economy. Major effects are likely to arise from changes to the freshwater resources system, due to the connection of energy generation to these water systems. Using future climate data downscaled by a stochastic weather generator, this study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on long‐term reservoir operations at the Chungju multipurpose dam in South Korea, specifically considering the reliability of the supply of water and hydropower. A reservoir model, Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Reservoir System Simulation (HEC‐ResSim), was used to simulate the ability of the dam to supply water and hydropower under different conditions. The hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to determine the HEC‐ResSim boundary conditions, including daily dam inflow from the 6,642 km² watershed into the 2.75 Gm³ capacity reservoir. Projections of the future climate indicate that temperature and precipitation during 2070‐2099 (2080s) show an increase of +4.1°C and 19.4%, respectively, based on the baseline (1990‐2009). The results from the models suggest that, in the 2080s, the average annual water supply and hydropower production would change by +19.8 to +56.5% and by +33.9 to 92.3%, respectively. Model simulations suggest that under the new climatic conditions, the reliability of water and hydropower supply would be generally improved, as a consequence of increased dam inflow.     

Nonpoint Source Pollution Responses Simulation for Conversion Cropland to Forest in Mountains by SWAT in China

Several environmental protection policies have been implemented to prevent soil erosion and nonpoint source (NPS) pollutions in China. After severe Yangtze River floods, the “conversion cropland to forest policy” (CCFP) was carried out throughout China, especially in the middle and upper reaches of Yangtze River. The research area of the current study is located in Bazhong City, Sichuan Province in Yangtze River watershed, where soil erosion and NPS pollution are serious concerns. Major NPS pollutants include nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The objective of this study is to evaluate the long-term impact of implementation of the CCFP on stream flow, sediment yields, and the main NPS pollutant loading at watershed level. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed environmental model and is applied here to simulate and quantify the impacts. Four scenarios are constructed representing different patterns of conversion from cropland to forest under various conditions set by the CCFP. Scenario A represented the baseline, i.e., the cropland and forest area conditions before the implementation of CCFP. Scenario B represents the condition under which all hillside cropland with slope larger than 25° was converted into forest. In scenario C and D, hillside cropland with slope larger than 15° and 7.5° was substituted by forest, respectively. Under the various scenarios, the NPS pollution reduction due to CCFP implementation from 1996–2005 is estimated by SWAT. The results are presented as percentage change of water flow, sediment, organic N, and organic P at watershed level. Furthermore, a regression analysis is conducted between forest area ratio and ten years’ average NPS load estimations, which confirmed the benefits of implementing CCFP in reducing nonpoint source pollution by increasing forest area in mountainous areas. The reduction of organic N and organic P is significant (decrease 42.1% and 62.7%, respectively) at watershed level. In addition, this study also proves that SWAT modeling approach can be used to estimate NPS pollutants’ impacts of land use conversions in large watershed.     

Water Supply Planning Considering Uncertainties in Future Water Demand and Climate: A Case Study in an Illinois Watershed

Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.