Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

清洁生产信息：因特网工作的重要性

CP6的一个成果就是开发全球清洁生产信息网的承诺.基于现有网络的经验，概述了维持此全球网络的责任、努力的程度和所需的资源.叙述了为改善信息交流所做的四个现有的地区性尝试.     

Book reviews

Cost Benefit Analysis of Environmental Change

Per‐Olov Johansson

Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993, 232 pp., £13.95

Computerised Environmental Modelling: A Practical Introduction using Excel

J. Hardisty, D. M. Taylor & S. E. Metcalfe

Chichester, Wiley, 1993, 204 pp., £14.95

Keeping Pace with Science and Engineering: Case Studies in Environmental Regulation

Washington DC, US National Academy of Engineering, 1993

World Without End: Economics, Environment and Sustainable Development

D. W. Pearce & J. J. Warford

Oxford University Press, New York, 1993, 440 pp., £35.95     

An investigation of methods for enriching trophoblast from maternal blood

Trophoblast deportation is known to occur in normal human pregnancy, but it is not yet clear whether these cells routinely enter the maternal peripheral circulation and are available as a source of fetal DNA for non-invasive prenatal diagnosis of genetic disorders. To resolve this issue requires an efficient method of enriching trophoblast from maternal blood combined with a means to confirm its identity. Five different techniques were tested on ten retroplacental blood samples to determine the most sensitive and operator-efficient method. Lysis of red cells alone gave the best recovery of trophoblast but had to be discounted, together with Ficoll density gradient centrifugation, due to the very low purity and the excessive time required. Fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) of pre-enriched trophoblast resulted in the lowest recovery rate (8 per cent) despite a 3250-fold enrichment and a very high purity. Immunomagnetic beads (Dynabeads) coated with anti-CD 16 antibody proved to be the best method for the subsequent immunocytochemical characterization of deported trophoblast. However, IO beads coated with anti-CD45 antibody may be more useful for isolating trophoblast for prenatal diagnosis due to the high purity, enrichment (32-fold), and recovery rate (78 per cent) obtained with this method.     

Sharing Rules for Common-Pool Resources When Self-Insurance is Available

When a group of users who share a common-pool resource through a system of licenses is exposed to the risk of shortage, there is a need to establish a sharing rule. Such sharing rule is likely to impact the individual decisions to self-insure, i.e., to rely on a secure but costly resource instead of the free but uncertain common-pool resource. We determine the optimal sharing rule and the optimal diversification between the common-pool resource and the safe resource as a function of the agents’ individual characteristics, the distribution of the common-pool resource availability, and the cost of the safe resource. We find that, for a group of agents with heterogenous risk preferences, a perfectly informed regulator can obtain the optimal diversification level by imposing a rationing rule which shares the resource between agents proportionally to their relative risk tolerance. We illustrate and interpret our results in the context of water management in France.     

Framing for resilience through social learning: impacts of environmental stewardship on youth in post-disturbance communities

Civic ecology practices, such as community gardening and citizen-led urban reforestation and wetland restoration, provide opportunities for social learning. Because social learning is an important component of community resilience, we suggest that civic ecology practices can be a strategy for responding to and mitigating environmental disturbances in an era threatened by climate change. Despite the links between civic ecology, social learning and community resilience, empirical research that systematically considers these connections is limited. This study addresses this gap by introducing ‘frames’ as an approach to considering social learning outcomes and process. More specifically, we provide a model for investigating the role civic ecology education programs play in shaping youths’ capacity to understand and respond to environmental disturbance. We used participant observation and cognitive mapping to assess social learning among three youth restoration programs working in the wake of Hurricane Sandy in New York, NY, and after the 2013 floods in Boulder, CO. In all three programs, youth demonstrated social learning and cognitive change by shifting their emphasis from the impacts of disturbance towards a solutions-based framing that focused on community, action, and mitigation. However, the depth of these changes was not uniform across all programs, suggesting that variations in program length, community context, social identity, and opportunities for self-defined action may shape overall impacts of programs and youth capacity for future action.     

Influence of suspended particles on the emission of organophosphate flame retardant from insulation boards

The influence of the presence of the so-called seed particles on the emission rate of Tris (1-chloroisopropyl) phosphate (TCIPP) from polyisocyanurate (PIR) insulation boards was investigated in this study. Two Field and Laboratory Emission Test cells (FLEC) were placed on the surface of the same PIR board and respectively supplied with clean air (reference FLEC) and air containing laboratory-generated soot particles (test FLEC). The behavior of the area-specific emission rates (SER _A ) over a time period of 10 days was studied by measuring the total (gas?+?particles) concentrations of TCIPP at the exhaust of each FLEC. The estimated SER _A of TCIPP from the PIR board at the quasi-static equilibrium were found to be 0.82 μg m^?2 h^?1 in the absence of seed particles, while the addition of soot particles led to SER _A of 2.16 μg m^?2 h^?1. This indicates an increase of the SER _A of TCIPP from the PIR board with a factor of 3 in the presence of soot particles. The TCIPP partition coefficient to soot particles at the quasi-static equilibrium was 0.022?±?0.012 m³ μg^?1. In the next step, the influence of real-life particles on TCIPP emission rates was investigated by supplying the test FLEC with air from a professional kitchen where mainly frying and baking activities took place. Similar to the reference FLEC outcomes, SER _A was also found to increase in this real-life experiment over a time period of 20 days by a factor 3 in the presence of particles generated during cooking activities. The median value of estimated particle–gas coefficient for this test was 0.062?±?0.037 m³ μg^?1.