挪威的环境家庭保护

Miljφheimevernet,即环境家庭保护,是1991年10月在挪威开始的.……     

Genetically Modified (GM) Crops: Precautionary Science and Conflicts of Interests

Risk governance of GM plants and GMfood products is presently subject to heatedscientific and public controversies. Scientistsand representatives of the biotechnologyindustry have dominated debates concerningsafety issues. The public is suspicious withregard to the motives of scientists, companies,and political institutions involved. Thedilemmas posed are nested, embracing valuequestions, scientific uncertainty, andcontextual issues. The obvious lack of data andinsufficient information concerning ecologicaleffects call for application of thePrecautionary Principle (PP). There are,however, divergent opinions among scientistsabout the relevance of putative hazards,definition of potential ``adverse effects,' andwhether actions should be taken to preventharm. The reliance on the concept ofsubstantial equivalence in safety evaluation ofGM food is equally controversial. Consequently,value assumptions embedded in a scientificframework may be a barrier for employment ofthe PP. One of our major conclusions is thatprecautionary GMP usage requires riskassessment criteria yet undeveloped, as well asbroader and more long-term conceptions of risk,uncertainty, and ignorance. Conflicts ofinterest and public participation are otherissues that need to be taken intoconsideration. GMP governance regimes that arejustifiable from a precautionary and ethicalpoint of view must transcend traditionalscientific boundaries to include alternativescientific perspectives as well as publicinvolvement.     

A risk concept applicable for both probabilistic and non-probabilistic perspectives

In engineering risk assessments, probability is the common tool used to describe the epistemic uncertainties about unknown quantities. Probability is considered a main component of risk. However, a number of alternative approaches exist for representing and describing uncertainties in risk assessments, including possibility theory and evidence theory. For these approaches and theories a probability-based risk definition cannot in general serve as a conceptual framework for risk assessments. A broader risk perspective is required. The purpose of the present paper is to present such a perspective and show how both the probabilistic and the alternative approaches and theories can be supported by this perspective. The key feature of this perspective is that uncertainty replaces probability in the definition of risk.     

Perspectives on risk in a decision-making context – Review and discussion

There exist many perspectives on risk, and traditionally some of the perspectives have been seen as representing completely different frameworks, making the exchange of ideas and results difficult. Much of the existing discussions on risk perspectives have in our view lacked a sufficient level of precision on the fundamental ideas of risk assessments and management. For example, there is more than one line of thinking in risk analysis and assessment and mixing all approaches into one gives a rather meaningless discussion. In this presentation we summarise and categorise some of the common perspectives on risk, including an approach integrating aspects of technical and economic risk analyses, as well as social scientists’ perspectives on risk. For the different perspectives we clarify the meaning of key concepts such as risk and uncertainty. Special focus is placed on the different perspectives’ impact on decision-making. Implementation of the ALARP principle is used as an example to illustrate the differences.     

From the editors

Editorial Introduction

From the editors     

On the ontological status of the concept of risk

In this paper we review a set of frequently used risk definitions and analyze their ontological status, i.e. to what extent risk exists in itself independent of any specific assessor. According to some prevailing risk perspectives in the social sciences, risk exists as objective states of the world, but for other common risk perspectives the status of risk is not as clear, for example if risk is viewed as uncertainty about and severity of the consequences of an activity with respect to something that humans value. The principal aim of this paper is to contribute to a clarification of the issue in order to strengthen the foundations of the meaning of risk.     

On the critique of Beck’s view on risk and risk analysis

Ulrich Beck’s stand on risk and risk analysis has been challenged by many researchers. In this paper we look closer into some of the arguments used, with a main focus on the fundamental analysis carried out by Campbell and Currie. These two authors argue that Beck’s criticisms of the theory and practice of risk analysis are groundless: Beck’s understanding of what risk is, is badly flawed, and he misunderstands and distorts the use of probability in risk analysis. However, the analysis of Campbell and Currie is based on a set of premises, for example that risk is a function of probability and harm, and that risk really exists and one can be wrong about risk. Although such ideas are common, they can be challenged, and in the literature a number of alternative perspectives have been suggested. The purpose of the present paper is to study Beck’s stand on risk analysis and the related critique of Campbell and Currie and others, in view of some of these alternative perspectives on risk. To what extent is the critique then justified? The paper concludes that the case raised against Beck’s view is still strong and relevant, but has to be nuanced with respect to some important issues, for example concerning the distinction between belief and truth when it comes to risk. Allowing for spacious interpretations of some of Beck’s theses, the paper provides strengthened support for Beck’s view on these points.     

On risk governance deficits

The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) has recently presented a report comprising an analysis and illustration of the most common deficits in risk governance. The work covers issues related to both assessments and management of risk. In this paper we take a closer look into this report. We acknowledge the work as an important contribution to the risk governance field, how risk decision-makers and practitioners in government and industry can improve the risk governance, but we also point to some weaknesses in the analysis, which are critical for the understanding and use of the IRGC document. Most of these relate to the understanding of fundamental ideas and phenomena, in particular risk and uncertainty. The rationale for several defined deficits is questioned, including “missing, ignoring or exaggerating early signals of risk” and “failure of managers to respond and take action when risk assessors have determined from early signals that a risk is emerging”. Simple examples are used to illustrate the problems and show how they can be rectified.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Land transport

Emissions from land transport, and from road transport in particular, have significant impacts on the atmosphere and on climate change. This assessment gives an overview of past, present and future emissions from land transport, of their impacts on the atmospheric composition and air quality, on human health and climate change and on options for mitigation.In the past vehicle exhaust emission control has successfully reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. This contributed to improved air quality and reduced health impacts in industrialised countries. In developing countries however, pollutant emissions have been growing strongly, adversely affecting many populations. In addition, ozone and particulate matter change the radiative balance and hence contribute to global warming on shorter time scales. Latest knowledge on the magnitude of land transport's impact on global warming is reviewed here.In the future, road transport's emissions of these pollutants are expected to stagnate and then decrease globally. This will then help to improve the air quality notably in developing countries. On the contrary, emissions of carbon dioxide and of halocarbons from mobile air conditioners have been globally increasing and are further expected to grow. Consequently, road transport's impact on climate is gaining in importance. The expected efficiency improvements of vehicles and the introduction of biofuels will not be sufficient to offset the expected strong growth in both, passenger and freight transportation. Technical measures could offer a significant reduction potential, but strong interventions would be needed as markets do not initiate the necessary changes. Further reductions would need a resolute expansion of low-carbon fuels, a tripling of vehicle fuel efficiency and a stagnation in absolute transport volumes. Land transport will remain a key sector in climate change mitigation during the next decades.     

Industrial disasters: Extreme events,extremely rare. Some reflections on the treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of the associated risks

This paper addresses the issue of risk from disasters occurring due to accidents in high-consequence technologies, e.g., nuclear and oil and gas. The focus is on the challenges posed to the representation and treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of such risk, given that the occurrence of such extreme disasters is extremely unlikely, and yet they occur. A general framework of analysis is proposed.