On the critique of Beck’s view on risk and risk analysis

Ulrich Beck’s stand on risk and risk analysis has been challenged by many researchers. In this paper we look closer into some of the arguments used, with a main focus on the fundamental analysis carried out by Campbell and Currie. These two authors argue that Beck’s criticisms of the theory and practice of risk analysis are groundless: Beck’s understanding of what risk is, is badly flawed, and he misunderstands and distorts the use of probability in risk analysis. However, the analysis of Campbell and Currie is based on a set of premises, for example that risk is a function of probability and harm, and that risk really exists and one can be wrong about risk. Although such ideas are common, they can be challenged, and in the literature a number of alternative perspectives have been suggested. The purpose of the present paper is to study Beck’s stand on risk analysis and the related critique of Campbell and Currie and others, in view of some of these alternative perspectives on risk. To what extent is the critique then justified? The paper concludes that the case raised against Beck’s view is still strong and relevant, but has to be nuanced with respect to some important issues, for example concerning the distinction between belief and truth when it comes to risk. Allowing for spacious interpretations of some of Beck’s theses, the paper provides strengthened support for Beck’s view on these points.     

Reducing unknown risk: The safety engineers’ new horizon

A significant gap exists between accident scenarios as foreseen by company safety management systems and actual scenarios observed in major accidents.The mere fact that this gap exists is pointing at flawed risk assessments, is leaving hazards unmitigated, threatening worker safety, putting the environment at risk and endangering company continuity. This scoping review gathers perspectives reported in scientific literature about how to address these problems.Safety managers and regulators, attempting to reduce and eventually close this gap, not only encounter the pitfalls of poor safety studies, but also the acceptance of ‘unknown risk’ as a phenomenon, companies being numbed by inadequate process safety indicators, unsettled debates between paradigms on improving process safety, and inflexible recording systems in a dynamic industrial environment.The immediacy of the stagnating long term downward major accident rate trend in the Netherlands underlines the need to address these pitfalls. A method to identify and systematically reduce unknown risks is proposed. The main conclusion is that safety management can never be ready with hazard identification and risk assessment.     

A risk perspective suitable for resilience engineering

In recent years, resilience engineering has been given considerable attention among safety researchers and analysts. The area represents a new way of thinking about safety. Whereas conventional risk management approaches are based on hindsight knowledge, failure reporting and risk assessments calculating historical data-based probabilities, resilience engineering looks for ways to enhance the ability of organisations to be resilient in the sense that they recognise, adapt to and absorb variations, changes, disturbances, disruptions and surprises. The implications of this shift in thinking are many. We focus in this paper on the understanding of the risk concept and how risk can be assessed and treated. The traditional ways of looking at risk are not suitable for use in resilience engineering, but other risk perspectives exist. A main purpose of this paper is to draw attention to such perspectives, in particular one category of perspectives where probability is replaced by uncertainty in the definition of risk. We argue that the basic ideas of resilience engineering can be supported by such risk perspectives.     

环境风险评价内涵与外延研究

在简要介绍环境风险评价(Environmental Risk Assessment,ERA)发展历程的基础上,总结现阶段国内外普遍采用的ERA定义,深入分析ERA的内涵和类型,在重新给出涵盖性更全面的ERA定义的同时,对3种评价内容的评价程序和评价方法进行了横向比较。收集整理了ERA的研究进展和应用现状,从时间、范畴和应用范围3个方面划定了ERA的外延。     

Perspectives on risk in a decision-making context – Review and discussion

There exist many perspectives on risk, and traditionally some of the perspectives have been seen as representing completely different frameworks, making the exchange of ideas and results difficult. Much of the existing discussions on risk perspectives have in our view lacked a sufficient level of precision on the fundamental ideas of risk assessments and management. For example, there is more than one line of thinking in risk analysis and assessment and mixing all approaches into one gives a rather meaningless discussion. In this presentation we summarise and categorise some of the common perspectives on risk, including an approach integrating aspects of technical and economic risk analyses, as well as social scientists’ perspectives on risk. For the different perspectives we clarify the meaning of key concepts such as risk and uncertainty. Special focus is placed on the different perspectives’ impact on decision-making. Implementation of the ALARP principle is used as an example to illustrate the differences.     

Safety is the antonym of risk for some perspectives of risk

Safety and safe are terms closely related to risk, but do they extend beyond the realm of risk? Is safety/safe just the antonym of risk, or the same as acceptable risk? This issue has been given due attention in the literature and in this paper we explore how different perspectives of risk affect the relationship between safety/safe and risk. If risk is defined as an expected value or as a measure of the probability and severity of adverse effects, the conclusions would be different than if the essential component of risk is uncertainty. For risk understood as uncertainty about and severity of the consequences of an activity we argue that safe means acceptable risk. Three dimensions of safety are discussed; events and consequences (harm), probability and uncertainty.     

强化化工园区中小企业特种设备安全监管的若干思考

本文分析、梳理中小型化工企业特种设备安全管理现状和存在的问题,总结国内外化工行业特种设备安全管理经验,从风险管理内涵、保险机制、过程安全管理、安全主体责任落实等角度,构建化工企业特种设备安全监管思路和对策,为促进我国化工中小企业特种设备安全监管提供一定的参考.     

基于ANP和模糊证据理论的应答器系统风险评估方法研究

针对应答器系统风险评估过程中存在较大模糊性和主观性的问题,提出了基于网络分析法(ANP)和模糊证据理论的风险评估模型。首先,识别评估对象的风险因素,建立相应的ANP评价模型,采用专家均值置信法改进传统ANP,确定风险因素权重;然后利用模糊数学理论确定专家评语基本信度分配(BPA)函数,并运用折扣系数法修正证据理论,合成专家意见得到各风险因素的BPA函数;最后通过加权平均函数实现风险综合评判,依据最大隶属度原则确定风险等级。利用该评估模型对应答器系统功能失效进行了风险评估,验证了模型的可行性和有效性。     

重大事故后果模拟法在天然气场站安全评价中的应用

场站是气田集输的枢纽,也是高风险存在和集中的场所。本论文采用重大事故后果模拟分析法建立天然气泄漏速率估算模型、蒸气云爆炸模型,并以陕北某一天然气场站为例,借助Risk System软件对天然气泄漏速率和泄漏量以及蒸气云爆炸最大事故进行数值模拟。模拟分析结果有助于对天然气场站可能发生的各种事故进行风险评价,也有助于对各类风险大的危险危害因素提出对应的安全对策措施,确保安全生产。     

Conceptual compression discussion on a multi-linear (FTA) and systematic (FRAM) method in an offshore operation’s accident modeling

Risk assessment can be classified into two broad categories: traditional and modern. This paper is aimed at contrasting the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) as a modern approach with the fault tree analysis (FTA) as a traditional method, regarding assessing the risks of a complex system. Applied methodology by which the risk assessment is carried out, is presented in each approach. Also, FRAM network is executed with regard to nonlinear interaction of human and organizational levels to assess the safety of technological systems. The methodology is implemented for lifting structures deep offshore. The main finding of this paper is that the combined application of FTA and FRAM during risk assessment, could provide complementary perspectives and may contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of an incident. Finally, it is shown that coupling a FRAM network with a suitable quantitative method will result in a plausible outcome for a predefined accident scenario.     

氨制冷压力容器定期检验相关问题分析

随着大量制冷装置的建成和使用,氦制冷企业安全问题日益突出,定期检验作为保证在役氦制冷压力容器安全使用的一个重要环节,目前仍存检验依据不清、检验项目不明、检验针对性不足等问题。文中对氦制冷压力容器定期检验现状进行了介绍,对氨制冷压力容器损伤机理进行了分析和讨论,从损伤模式判别的角度提出了相应的检验策略,给相关人S提供一些参考和借鉴。     

An evaluation of risk assessment framework for industrial accidents in India

Due to rapid industrialization, with high population density and constraints of land, it is expected that level of risks arising from the hazardous industries will increase in India in the coming decades. However, 30 years after the Bhopal accident (1984), except a few discrete regulations, there is as yet no integrated system for assessing and managing risks arising out of these hazardous industries in India. The gravity of aspects related to the management of industrial risk still remains crucially important. In particular, there is no standard guideline on risk analysis methodology, acceptability or tolerability criteria, nor is there an accident database or a risk reduction strategy for the areas where risk levels are already high. On top of this, there are technical and legislative gaps in the institutional framework to implement any of the above mentioned issues. With the backdrop of the Bhopal gas tragedy, the objective of this paper is therefore to evaluate the effectiveness of a comprehensive risk assessment framework for the emerging economy of India, in order to control and/or to reduce the risk level that exists. In this context, regulations and policies pertaining to industrial risk assessment were reviewed.     

弹性系数视角下风险耦合特性的仿真分析

风险耦合导致风险发生非线性演化,从而给风险的定量评估带来困难。为给出风险耦合控制的有效对策,基于弹性系数视角界定风险耦合弹性系数概念,以此实现对风险耦合强度的定量测度;基于装备研制项目设计论证环节,从风险测度指标节点裕度角度,采用Arena软件仿真分析单指标和全指标在线性和非线性耦合关系下的系统风险熵和后传风险熵的变化情况。结果表明,全指标非线性耦合会显著改变系统性能,而单指标非线性耦合和全指标线性耦合次之,欲实现风险耦合控制应极力制止全局性的非线性耦合关系。     

基于风险修正的城市安全风险评估方法及应用*

为推动实现城市安全风险的系统化、信息化管理，基于我国城市安全风险管理的要求与特点，总结城市安全风险评估的分层分类原则、突出固有风险原则和合理修正原则等基本原则；提出“点位-行业-区域”逐层展开的城市安全风险评估程序，明确各层级的评估要点；提出城市安全风险评估方法，分别制定点位、行业风险修正规则，结合风险参数与情景构建开展基于风险矩阵法的点位风险评估和行业风险评估，采用加权计算法由行业风险评估结果叠加评估区域风险。结果表明:该方法能够从不同角度有效评估城市的风险状态，为不同层级的城市安全管理者明确风险管控重点提供决策依据。     

Application of risk analysis in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector: An overview

In recent years, the global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an energy source is increasing at a very fast rate. In order to meet this demand, a large number of facilities such as platforms, FPSO (floating production, storage and offloading), FSRU (floating storage and regasification unit) and LNG ships and terminals are required for the storage, processing and transportation of LNG. Failure of any of these facilities may expose the market, companies, personnel and the environment to hazards, hence making the application of risk analysis to the LNG sector a very topical issue throughout the world. To assess the risk of accidents associated with LNG facilities and carriers, various risk analysis approaches have been employed to identify the potential hazards, calculate the probability of accidents, as well as assessing the severity of consequences. Nonetheless, literature on classification of the risk analysis models applied to LNG facilities is very limited. Therefore, to reveal the holistic issues and future perspectives on risk analysis of LNG facilities, a systematic review of the current state-of-the-art research on LNG risk analysis is necessary. The aim of this paper is to review and categorize the published literature about the problems associated with risk analysis of LNG facilities, so as to improve the understanding of stakeholders (researchers, regulators, and practitioners). To achieve this aim, scholarly articles on LNG risk analysis are identified, reviewed, and then categorized according to risk assessment methods (qualitative, semi-qualitative or quantitative; deterministic or probabilistic; conventional or dynamic), tools (ETA, FTA, FMEA/FMECA, Bayesian network), output/strategy (RBI, RBM, RBIM, facility siting, etc.), data sources (OREDA handbook, published literature, UK HSE databases, regulatory agencies' reports, industry datasets, and experts’ consultations), applications (LNG carriers and LNG fuelled ships, LNG terminals and stations, LNG offshore floating units, LNG plants), etc. Our study will not only be useful to researchers engaged in these areas but will also assist regulators, policy makers, and operators of LNG facilities to find the risk analysis models that fit their specific requirements.     

基于可靠度理论的RBI修正模型研究

基于风险的检测技术包括定性RBI判断和定量RBI计算,定性判断得到风险相对的高低,风险相对较低者则不必进行定量RBI计算,风险高者再进行下一步定量RBI计算。在API581中,国外风险分析统计表明,石化企业的风险分布范围有一个所谓的"二八"现象,即"80%的风险是由20%的设备引起",中高风险以上的设备范围一般在20%左右。但我国十套装置风险分析结果发现,这个结论在我国并不适用,我国中高风险设备往往在40%左右。论文分析了API581在中国应用的局限性,引入可靠度理论计算设备失效概率,预估未来的失效概率或可靠度,可以完整地以RBI方法在得知失效后果和失效概率下,评估出此设备在整个系统中所处的地位,从而适当地分配检测、维修资源,在RBI完成后再进行风险评价进而完成风险评估过程。     

The role of policy for the management of psychosocial risks at the workplace in the European Union

A number of significant developments towards the management of psychosocial risks have been achieved at the policy level in the European Union (EU) since the introduction of the 1989 European Commission Council Framework Directive 89/391/EEC on Safety and Health of Workers at Work on which a new EU risk prevention culture has since been established, combining legislation, social dialogue, best practices and building partnerships. However, it has been widely acknowledged that initiatives aiming to promote workers’ health have not had the impact anticipated both by experts and policy makers and the main reason for this has been the gap that exists between policy and practice. This paper discusses the findings from the PRIMA-EF project, a policy-orientated project, which focussed on the development of a European framework for psychosocial risk management at the workplace. In particular, the paper presents the results of an EU stakeholder survey and interviews with EU policy level experts to assess their awareness, understanding and evaluation of the impact of policy initiatives for psychosocial risk management.     

HAZOP和LOPA方法在食品企业氨制冷系统中的应用

为评估食品企业氨制冷系统所处的风险状态,文章在HAZOP方法和LOPA方法理论研究的基础上,将其组合应用于食品企业氨制冷系统的风险评估中,以提前识别可能导致事故的原因和后果,确定现有防控措施是否足够、有效,并将风险控制在可接受水平。通过对氨制冷系统中低压循环桶液位过高场景的实例分析,得出该场景下的剩余风险基本在企业可接受范围内,不需要增加独立安全仪表系统的结论,为食品企业安全管理决策提供了科学依据。     

Developing a new alternative risk assessment framework in the work sites by including a stochastic and a deterministic process: A case study for the Greek Public Electric Power Provider

An individual method cannot achieve the optimum risk-assessment result in the worksites, and future perspectives should focus on the parallel application of a deterministic approach with a stochastic approach. In particular, the risk analysis and assessment techniques of the deterministic (DET) approach are classified into three main categories: (a) the qualitative, (b) the quantitative, and (c) the hybrid techniques (qualitative-quantitative, semi-quantitative). Furthermore, the stochastic (STO) approach includes the classic statistical approach (CSA) and the accident forecasting modeling (AFM). The objective of this paper is triple: (a) the presentation and classification of the main risk analysis and risk assessment methods and techniques of the deterministic approach and the stochastic approach as well, (b) the development and presentation of a new alternative risk assessment framework (called as STODET) including a stochastic and a deterministic process, and (c) the application of STODET in the Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC) by using occupational accidents that have been recorded, during the 17-year period of 1993-2009. In particular, the STODET application proves that required actions (or suppressive measures) are essential and must be taken in a medium-term period (1 working year) for abolishing the hazard sources.     

白酒厂类火灾高危单位消防安全评估及应用

白酒厂属于典型的甲乙类火灾高危单位,具有火灾风险高、火灾扑救难度大、火灾造成伤亡大等特点。以白酒厂类火灾高危单位为研究对象,针对酒厂酒库、原酒车间、成品库、包装车间、包装材料库、办公楼等重点部位,通过深入调研,采用安全检查表法分析某白酒厂存在的火灾安全隐患及安全管理的薄弱环节,用层次分析法建立了该白酒厂的消防安全评估指标体系,主要包括建筑火灾风险、消防救援力量和消防给水几个方面。采用专家打分法赋予评估指标权重,并根据风险等级划分得出该酒厂的整体火灾风险评估等级,进而评判该酒厂的安全状况,针对存在的火灾隐患及薄弱环节采取有针对性的预防措施和有重点的整改管理,保障其安全生产。