Conjoint analysis for environmental evaluation

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Conjoint analysis and the related choice-modelling methods have been used for many years in marketing research to evaluate consumer behaviour and preferences for different kinds of product attributes. Recently, the number of applications in environmental science and management has started to grow. Conjoint analysis is found in many different forms, and the environmental studies evaluated in this review display the same range of methods as in other fields. The key characteristic of all these methods is that trade-offs are evaluated by jointly considering a number of important attributes. MAIN FEATURES: This paper is a review of the literature on environmental applications of conjoint analysis and assesses in which environmental area conjoint analysis has been most successful. The method and the design of the studies are reviewed as well. RESULTS: A total of 84 studies were found, dealing with environmental issues that were evaluated by conjoint analysis. The studies concern agriculture, ecosystem management, energy, environmental evaluation, forestry, land management, pollution, products, recreation, environmental risk analysis and waste management. DISCUSSION: Choice experiments seem to have a comparatively stronger position in environmental studies than elsewhere. Most of the environmental applications are related to natural resource management. This is somewhat surprising, but a number of reports have appeared also on product evaluation, which could be a key application area in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to marketing and transportation, the number of environmental conjoint studies is rather small but increasing, and the method has proven to work effectively in eliciting preferences on environmental issues. In environmental issues, experimenters often use choice experiments, especially concerning ecosystem management and environmental evaluations. When it comes to evaluating preferences concerning agriculture, forestry, energy and products, a more traditional approach of conjoint analysis is favoured. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Two new areas of application are identified in this review--environmental communication and expert elicitation. Conjoint analysis can thus be developed into a useful instrument for environmental risk analysis and communication, both of which are necessary for an efficient approach to risk governance.     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Determining Ecoregions for Environmental and GMO Monitoring Networks

A representative environmental monitoring network at the regional scale cannot use raster-based or random sampling designs, but requires a stratified sampling procedure integrating different information layers, and it has to occur in ecologically differing homogeneous regions (ecoregions). These we have determined using a set of spatial strata with ecological variables which we analysed with classification and regression trees (CART). We present a framework for environmental monitoring, that covers different scales, and we transfer the framework to a potential GMO (genetically modified organisms) monitoring network. We use ecoregion and other environmental strata together with existing environmental monitoring networks to determine GMO monitoring sites more precisely.     

The feasibility of including sustainability in LCA for product development

The feasibility of combining the concept of sustainability principles and the methodology of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is examined. The goal is to achieve an operational tool that incorporates sustainability in product development and strategic planning. While the method outlined has the structure of LCA, it emphasises aspects and parameters often omitted from traditional LCA. The analysis and results can be either qualitative or semi-quantitative. Although a qualitative analysis is less time consuming, it can still highlight the important issues. Qualitative information, which is easily lost in a quantitative analysis, can be emphasised. One of the conclusions is that the method is well suited for screening analysis.     

农场协作以提高可持续发展力

本文表明农场主之间的联合经营体(partnership arrangements)可能是保障农场经济生存能力和提高效益的途径之一.本文讨论了三种不同协作类型的经验分析,并强调了与协作经营关联的环境改善.在第一个案例中,对牛奶场和种植农场的协作进行了分析,结果表明多样化的提高和轮作具有实质的潜在效益,当协作包括机械时,其潜在效益更高.第二个例子论及生猪育崽和精饲管理的外部综合条件.协作利润源于生物因子和技术因子两方面,诸如提高生长率和增加猪舍的利用率等.最后,本文对一组种植农场协作进行了评估,认为效益的增加主要得益于机械费用的减少和/或来自其它因素的收益,如轮作和管理、营销策略等的改善.     

Chemical Composition and Acidity of Rain at the Gulf of Iskenderun,North-East Mediterranean

The purpose of the present work was to investigate the chemistry of rain in the Gulf of Iskenderun, North East Mediterranean, Turkey. The Gulf region has a large number of industries. Main industries existing in the region are iron and steel works, fertilizer plants, a cement plant, and several medium and mini size steel mills in addition to the international pipe line terminals. This study aims to apportion the local sources contributing to the overall pollution of the region. To this end a precipitation sampling program was started in January 2000, and over 48 precipitation samples were collected from each of 5 stations located at Iskenderun city center, Iskenderun industrial zone, Payas city center, the campus of Iskenderun Technical College and the campus of Mustafa Kemal University. Samples were analysed for pH, NO₃ ⁺, Cl^-. Ca, Al, Ba, Na, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Pb, Li, Mg, Mn, Ni, Zn, Fe, K. Concentrations of metal ions were determined by ICP-AES. NO₃ ^- ions and pH were determined by using NO₃ ^- selective electrode and pH meter, respectively.pH values of the collected samples at the industrial zone and at Payas city center, ranged between 5.02 and 7.38, respectively. NO₃ ^- and metal ions concentrations were highly variable. Concentrations of Ca and Fe ions were higher in the industrial zone and Payas city center. In the other three stations, concentrations of metal ions and NO₃ ^- ion were lower than that of industrial zone and the values of pH ranged between 6 and 7.4. The average pH values at Iskenderun Gulf showed that the precipitation was not acidic, because of the high concentration of Ca. The highest concentrations of Na and Cl ions were recorded in the University campus because the campus is located by the Mediterranean Sea.     

Information Network Topologies for Enhanced Local Adaptive Management

We examined the principal effects of different information network topologies for local adaptive management of natural resources. We used computerized agents with adaptive decision algorithms with the following three fundamental constraints: (1) Complete understanding of the processes maintaining the natural resource can never be achieved, (2) agents can only learn by experimentation and information sharing, and (3) memory is limited. The agents were given the task to manage a system that had two states: one that provided high utility returns (desired) and one that provided low returns (undesired). In addition, the threshold between the states was close to the optimal return of the desired state. We found that networks of low to moderate link densities significantly increased the resilience of the utility returns. Networks of high link densities contributed to highly synchronized behavior among the agents, which caused occasional large-scale ecological crises between periods of stable and high utility returns. A constructed network involving a small set of experimenting agents was capable of combining high utility returns with high resilience, conforming to theories underlying the concept of adaptive comanagement. We conclude that (1) the ability to manage for resilience (i.e., to stay clear of the threshold leading to the undesired state as well as the ability to re-enter the desired state following a collapse) resides in the network structure and (2) in a coupled social–ecological system, the systemwide state transition occurs not because the ecological system flips into the undesired state, but because managers lose their capacity to reorganize back to the desired state. An erratum to this article can be found at .