Trait‐based prediction of extinction risk of small‐bodied freshwater fishes

Small body size is generally correlated with r‐selected life‐history traits, including early maturation, short‐generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small‐bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray‐Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi‐Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty‐three ecological and life‐history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size—among small‐bodied species—was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k‐folds cross‐validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small‐bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.     

The city as a refuge for insect pollinators

Research on urban insect pollinators is changing views on the biological value and ecological importance of cities. The abundance and diversity of native bee species in urban landscapes that are absent in nearby rural lands evidence the biological value and ecological importance of cities and have implications for biodiversity conservation. Lagging behind this revised image of the city are urban conservation programs that historically have invested in education and outreach rather than programs designed to achieve high‐priority species conservation results. We synthesized research on urban bee species diversity and abundance to determine how urban conservation could be repositioned to better align with new views on the ecological importance of urban landscapes. Due to insect pollinators’ relatively small functional requirements—habitat range, life cycle, and nesting behavior—relative to larger mammals, we argue that pollinators put high‐priority and high‐impact urban conservation within reach. In a rapidly urbanizing world, transforming how environmental managers view the city can improve citizen engagement and contribute to the development of more sustainable urbanization.     

Assessing effects of non-native crayfish on mosquito survival

Introductions of non-native predators often reduce biodiversity and affect natural predator–prey relationships and may increase the abundance of potential disease vectors (e.g., mosquitoes) indirectly through competition or predation cascades. The Santa Monica Mountains (California, U.S.A.), situated in a global biodiversity hotspot, is an area of conservation concern due to climate change, urbanization, and the introduction of non-native species. We examined the effect of non-native crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) on an existing native predator, dragonfly nymphs (Aeshna sp.), and their mosquito larvae (Anopheles sp.) prey. We used laboratory experiments to compare the predation efficiency of both predators, separately and together, and field data on counts of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae sampled from 13 local streams. We predicted a lower predation efficiency of crayfish compared with native dragonfly nymphs and a reduced predation efficiency of dragonfly nymphs in the presence of crayfish. Dragonfly nymphs were an order of magnitude more efficient predators than crayfish, and dragonfly nymph predation efficiency was reduced in the presence of crayfish. Field count data showed that populations of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae were strongly correlated with crayfish presence in streams, such that sites with crayfish tended to have fewer dragonfly nymphs and more mosquito larvae. Under natural conditions, it is likely that crayfish reduce the abundance of dragonfly nymphs and their predation efficiency and thereby, directly and indirectly, lead to higher mosquito populations and a loss of ecosystem services related to disease vector control.     

Circumpolar status of Arctic ptarmigan: Population dynamics and trends

Rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are Arctic birds with a circumpolar distribution but there is limited knowledge about their status and trends across their circumpolar distribution. Here, we compiled information from 90 ptarmigan study sites from 7 Arctic countries, where almost half of the sites are still monitored. Rock ptarmigan showed an overall negative trend on Iceland and Greenland, while Svalbard and Newfoundland had positive trends, and no significant trends in Alaska. For willow ptarmigan, there was a negative trend in mid-Sweden and eastern Russia, while northern Fennoscandia, North America and Newfoundland had no significant trends. Both species displayed some periods with population cycles (short 3–6 years and long 9–12 years), but cyclicity changed through time for both species. We propose that simple, cost-efficient systematic surveys that capture the main feature of ptarmigan population dynamics can form the basis for citizen science efforts in order to fill knowledge gaps for the many regions that lack systematic ptarmigan monitoring programs.

     

The role of digital data entry in participatory environmental monitoring

Many argue that monitoring conducted exclusively by scientists is insufficient to address ongoing environmental challenges. One solution entails the use of mobile digital devices in participatory monitoring (PM) programs. But how digital data entry affects programs with varying levels of stakeholder participation, from nonscientists collecting field data to nonscientists administering every step of a monitoring program, remains unclear. We reviewed the successes, in terms of management interventions and sustainability, of 107 monitoring programs described in the literature (hereafter programs) and compared these with case studies from our PM experiences in Australia, Canada, Ethiopia, Ghana, Greenland, and Vietnam (hereafter cases). Our literature review showed that participatory programs were less likely to use digital devices, and 2 of our 3 more participatory cases were also slow to adopt digital data entry. Programs that were participatory and used digital devices were more likely to report management actions, which was consistent with cases in Ethiopia, Greenland, and Australia. Programs engaging volunteers were more frequently reported as ongoing, but those involving digital data entry were less often sustained when data collectors were volunteers. For the Vietnamese and Canadian cases, sustainability was undermined by a mismatch in stakeholder objectives. In the Ghanaian case, complex field protocols diminished monitoring sustainability. Innovative technologies attract interest, but the foundation of effective participatory adaptive monitoring depends more on collaboratively defined questions, objectives, conceptual models, and monitoring approaches. When this foundation is built through effective partnerships, digital data entry can enable the collection of more data of higher quality. Without this foundation, or when implemented ineffectively or unnecessarily, digital data entry can be an additional expense that distracts from core monitoring objectives and undermines project sustainability. The appropriate role of digital data entry in PM likely depends more on the context in which it is used and less on the technology itself.     

Tool wear of coated drills in drilling CFRP

This study aimed to investigate the wear of certain coated drills when drilling carbon fiber reinforced composites (CFRP). Three different drills were used in the drilling experiments: uncoated, diamond coated and AlTiN coated carbide (WC–Co) drills. The tool wear in CFRP machining was quite different from that in conventional metal machining. The primary wear type was a dulling or blunting of the cutting edge, which has been referred to as edge rounding wear or edge recession. In this paper, a hypothesis has been developed to explain the edge rounding wear in CFRP machining. Due to the fracture-based chip formation of CFRP, there is lack of the work material stagnation zone in front of the cutting edge, which normally prevents the edge wear in metal machining. Series of wear lead to rapid dulling of the cutting edge. The resistance to edge rounding wear on the coated as well as uncoated drills has been investigated. The diamond coating significantly reduces the edge rounding wear. However, AlTiN coated drills showed no visible improvement over the uncoated carbide drill, despite of their high hardness, thus not protecting the drill. The wear mechanisms of the uncoated carbide drill and coatings are discussed. It is believed that the 2-body and 3-body abrasive wear fail to explain the observed tool wear in CFRP drilling. However, the wear of the coatings and uncoated carbide substrate from tribo-meter tests correlated well with the tool wear in the CFRP drilling. Therefore, the tribo-meter test can be used to screen the prospective tool materials before carrying drilling experiment.     

A land use regression model for predicting ambient volatile organic compound concentrations in Toronto,Canada

More than 25 studies have employed land use regression (LUR) models to estimate nitrogen oxides and to a lesser extent particulate matter indicators, but these methods have been less commonly applied to ambient concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Some VOCs have high plausibility as sources of health effects and others are specific indicators of motor vehicle exhaust. We used LUR models to estimate spatial variability of VOCs in Toronto, Canada. Benzene, n-hexane and total hydrocarbons (THC) were measured from July 25 to August 9, 2006 at 50 locations using the TraceAir organic vapor monitors. Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) was also sampled to assess its spatial pattern agreement with VOC exposures. Buffers for land use, population density, traffic density, physical geography, and remote sensing measures of greenness and surface brightness were also tested. The remote sensing measures have the highest correlations with VOCs and NO₂ levels (i.e., explains >36% of the variance). Our regression models explain 66–68% of the variance in the spatial distribution of VOCs, compared to 81% for the NO₂ model. The ranks of agreement between various VOCs range from 48 to 63% and increases substantially – up to 75% – for the top and bottom quartile groups. Agreements between NO₂ and VOCs are much smaller with an average rank of 36%. Future epidemiologic studies may therefore benefit from using VOCs as potential toxic agents for traffic-related pollutants.     

A PRELIMINARY QUANTIFICATION OF THE IMPACTS OF ASPEN TO CONIFER SUCCESSION ON WATER YIELD- II. MODELING RESULTS1

ABSTRACT: Heat pulse velocity techniques were developed for effective monitoring of water movement in aspen (Populus tremuloides), subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), and Englemann spruce (Picea engelmannif). Water loss was monitored in replicated trees of each species for one year. These data were used to modify the plant activity index (a reflection of the ability of plants to transpire water at various times during a year) and the crop coefficient (a reflection of differences in consumptive use rates of water by different vegetation types when all other factors are held constant) for each species within the model ASPCON, a deterministic, lumped-parameter model describing the hydrology of aspen to conifer succession. Results of the modeling in dicate 18.6 cm net loss of moisture available for streamflow when spruce replaced aspen, and a loss of 7.2 cm when fir forests replaced aspen. The aspen to conifer successional trend appears, therefore, to be significantly reducing water yields in the western United States.     

Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.