气候政策研究中的数学模型评述

按照成本分析和综合分析2个层次，分别介绍了投入产出模型、可计算一般均衡模型、宏观计量经济模型、工程经济模型、动态能源优化模型、能源系统模拟模型、综合评估模型等不同模型方法的特点及其在气候政策分析中的应用。指出可计算一般均衡模型是应用得最为广泛的方法之一。概括了气候政策模型研究的4个发展趋势，包括加强综合评估模型的应用、扩展成本与效益的内涵、注重不同模型之间的比较、强调不确定性分析。结果中国研究现状，分析了当前面昨的问题，认为国内气候政策模型研究与中国在国际气候变化领域的地位仍不相称，强度要进一步加强研究队伍建设、扩展研究领域、跟踪国际研究前沿问题，以便为国家的气候谈判政策提供更有效的科学依据和决策支持。     

双酚A及其类似物对斑马鱼胚胎及幼鱼的毒性效应

为探讨双酚A及其类似物对鱼类早期生长发育的毒性效应,研究了双酚A及其7种类似物对斑马鱼胚胎及仔鱼的毒性效应。通过对胚胎的孵化率、心率、仔鱼体长等指标进行测定分析,结果显示:(1)双酚A及其7种类似物都可使斑马鱼胚胎出现心包水肿、卵黄囊肿、脊柱弯曲和尾部弯曲等症状。(2)综合考虑斑马鱼78 hpf胚胎心率、120 hpf胚胎孵化率及7 dpf仔鱼体长抑制率等指标,8种受试物中双酚P(BPP)的毒性最大,其次是双酚AP(BPAP)、双酚AF(BPAF)、双酚Z(BPZ),然后是双酚A(BPA)、双酚B(BPB)、双酚F(BPF),双酚S(BPS)的毒性最小,每种受试物的浓度与受精卵的孵化率、仔鱼心率呈明显负相关关系,与体长抑制率呈明显正相关关系。8种受试物毒性与辛醇-水分配系数(log K_(OW))呈正相关关系,log K_(OW)越大毒性则越大。     

稀有鮈鲫作为水生模式生物的研究及探讨

我国本土水生生物稀有鮈鲫(Gobiocypris rarus Ye et Fu,1983年)是一种优良的试验用鱼，具备成为模式生物必要条件。本文总结了稀有鮈鲫生物生态学研究情况，分析了稀有鮈鲫在多个应用领域与模式生物斑马鱼、青鳉存在的不足和差距，同时借鉴发达国家推动模式生物的实践经验，提出了针对性建议。     

Methodology of industry scale analysis under the constraint of regional resource capacity using HSY algorithm

This paper develops a methodology of proper scale analysis for regional industry development, which can be used in industry planning with the consideration of regional resource capacities. In the face of different data sources and even data scarcity, alternative methods based on linear programming and quadratic programming algorithms for calculating the resource intensity factors are designed. Based on the empirical study of industrialization, initial scenarios of industry development were set. Using HSY algorithm, sensitive industries that may cause exceeding regional resource capacity can be identified, and the risk of exceeding can be predicted and expressed in probability. Furthermore, a proper scale range can be designed for these sensitive industries according to resource capacity. Taking the case of Dalian city in China, this paper estimated the regional urban development plan, various resources capacities were studied, and land resources were estimated to be the most critical resource for the city. The land resource depletion intensities of different industries are calculated by quadratic programming algorithm. Under the constraint of 427.56 km² available industrial land resources, the electronic and power industries have the most significant impact on total land use, if the scale of power industry exceeds 1.27 billion USD, the probability of land resource capacity breakthrough will be 50%.     

Molecular diversity of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi at a large-scale antimony mining area in southern China

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) have great potential for assisting heavy metal hyperaccumulators in the remediation of contaminated soils. However, little information is available about the community composition of AMF under natural conditions in soils contaminated by antimony (Sb). The objective of this study was to investigate the characteristics of AMF molecular diversity, and to explore the effects of Sb content and soil properties on the AMF community structure in an Sb mining area. Four Sb mine spoils and one adjacent reference area were selected from around the Xikuangshan mine in southern China. The association of AMF molecular diversity and community composition with the rhizosphere soils of the dominant plant species was studied by Polymerase Chain Reaction-Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE). Results from all five studied sites showed that the diversity of AMF decreased with increasing Sb concentration. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that the AMF community structure was markedly different among these groups. Further redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that Sb contaminationwas the dominating factor influencing the AMF community structure in the Sb mine area. However, the multivariate analysis showed that, apart from the soil Sb content, extractable nitrogen content and organic matter content also attributed to AMF sequence distribution type. Some AMF sequences were only found in the highly contaminated area and these might be ideal candidates for improving phytoremediation efficiency in Sb mining regions. Gene sequencing analysis revealed that most species were affiliated with Glomus, suggesting that Glomus was the dominant AMF genus in the studied Sb mining area.     

非点源污染模型研究

随着工业污染源的有效控制,非点源污染已经成为我国重要污染类型之一,如何科学地认识并有效控制非点源污染因而成为一个紧迫的研究课题.本文回顾了描述非点源的基础工具--非点源模型30多年来的发展历史,就非点源模型的主要类型、结构和特点进行了系统的总结,并对目前主要的非点源模型进行了比较分析,探讨了非点源模型发展的趋势,以期为我国非点源污染的控制提供可借鉴的经验.     

环境模型参数识别与不确定性分析

在对水文模型实例的参数不确定性分析基础上,分别采用传统灵敏度分析方法、HSY算法、线性回归等方法对模型参数特性进行了识别与比较研究.结果表明参数优化算法与传统灵敏度分析方法不能解释模型结构复杂性特征,采用不确定性分析方法对环境模型参数进行识别提供了深入分析与理解模型系统的有效途径.     

天津市地表水体与沉积物中7种高关注酚类化合物的污染特征与生态风险分析

为探究地表水体与沉积物中酚类化合物的污染分布特征和生态风险,选择天津市3个水源地与6条主要河流,采集了26个地表水样与6个沉积物样品,利用固相萃取与超声萃取、高效液相色谱-串联质谱法(HPLC-MS/MS)测定了水样及沉积物中1-萘酚(1-naphthol)、壬基酚(nonylphenol, NP)、双酚A(bisphenol A, BPA)、2-苯基苯酚(biphenyl-2-ol)、3,4-二氯酚(3,4-dichlorophenol)、四溴双酚A(tetrabromobisphenol A, TBBPA)和对叔丁基苯酚(p-tert-butylphenol, PTBP)等7种高关注酚类化合物的浓度水平,并应用物种敏感性分布(species sensitivity distribution, SSD)法和熵值法(ecological risk quotient, RQ)评估7种酚类化合物水环境和沉积物的生态风险。结果表明,地表水样中7种酚类化合物均全部检出;其中壬基酚的检出浓度最高,其次为四溴双酚A、对叔丁基苯酚、1-萘酚、2-苯基苯酚、3,4-二氯酚和双酚A。沉积物中酚类化合物的污染分布规律与水样相似,除双酚A外的目标物全部检出。其中,壬基酚浓度比其他物质浓度高2个数量级。风险评估结果显示,壬基酚对水环境与沉积物存在不可接受的风险;而四溴双酚A、对叔丁基苯酚、1-萘酚、2-苯基苯酚、3,4-二氯酚和双酚A则对环境具有较低风险或者存在一定的风险。     

悬浮填料生物膜工艺的研究进展

悬浮填料生物膜工艺又称为移动床生物膜反应器工艺，是上世纪90年代初迅猛发展起来的一种新型水处理工艺．它既可以作为独立的生物处理系统，也能够与活性污泥法组合以增加后者的处理效能，还可以作为中高浓度工业废水的生物预处理手段．本文总结了悬浮填料生物膜工艺的流体力学、生化动力学规律、悬浮填料的开发现状，探讨了此工艺在市政生活污水、工业废水、低污染物浓度的水处理领域的研究和应用进展．进一步开发高效、廉价的功能型悬浮填料，提高填料的有效比表面积，优化与确定工艺和运行参数，将推动悬浮填料生物膜工艺在我国的全面应用．图3表1参64     

基于IWCPA模型的工业节水关键技术选择

通过建立工业节水潜力分析和技术综合评价模型(IWCPA模型),筛选了影响高耗水行业用水的关键技术.选定2002年为基准年,在2010年和2020年高耗水行业取水零增长的情景设定下,进行了分行业和行业耦合的技术综合评价及技术选择,确定了重要工业用水技术实施的优先序,建立了高耗水行业重要用水技术的优选清单.结果表明,未来15a内是否能够在若干工业用水关键技术的研究、应用和推广方面取得突破,是挖掘工业节水潜力、提高工业用水效率的关键.