Setting the most robust effluent level under severe uncertainty: Application of information-gap decision theory to chemical management

Decisions in ecological risk management for chemical substances must be made based on incomplete information due to uncertainties. To protect the ecosystems from the adverse effect of chemicals, a precautionary approach is often taken. The precautionary approach, which is based on conservative assumptions about the risks of chemical substances, can be applied selecting management models and data. This approach can lead to an adequate margin of safety for ecosystems by reducing exposure to harmful substances, either by reducing the use of target chemicals or putting in place strict water quality criteria. However, the reduction of chemical use or effluent concentrations typically entails a financial burden. The cost effectiveness of the precautionary approach may be small. Hence, we need to develop a formulaic methodology in chemical risk management that can sufficiently protect ecosystems in a cost-effective way, even when we do not have sufficient information for chemical management. Information-gap decision theory can provide the formulaic methodology. Information-gap decision theory determines which action is the most robust to uncertainty by guaranteeing an acceptable outcome under the largest degree of uncertainty without requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset. In this paper, we illustrate the application of information-gap decision theory to derive a framework for setting effluent limits of pollutants for point sources under uncertainty. Our application incorporates a cost for reduction in pollutant emission and a cost to wildlife species affected by the pollutant. Our framework enables us to settle upon actions to deal with severe uncertainty in ecological risk management of chemicals.     

A comparative study on the autoxidation of dimethyl ether (DME) comparison with diethyl ether (DEE) and diisopropyl ether (DIPE)

The Japanese government is planning to introduce DME as a substituted energy for oil and LNG. Introduction of DME could contribute greatly to both the prevention of global warming and the formation of resource-recycling societies. In these circumstances, a safety assessment of DME is very important when DME is used on a large scale. There is a possibility that prolonged exposure in air induces autoxidation to produce explosive organic peroxides during transportation and storage of DME. Therefore, the reactivity of DME with oxygen and the mechanism of the autoxidation were investigated. Accelerating Rate Calorimetry (ARC) was used to evaluate the thermal stability of DME and DIPE, a known peroxide producers, under adiabatic and various atmospheric conditions. In ARC studies of DME under oxygen, exothermic decompositions were detected although its self-heating rate was low in comparison with DIPE. Oven storage tests were carried out and iodimetry was used to measure the concentration of peroxides produced from DME in comparison with DIPE and DEE. However, no products could be found for DME either by GC/MS or by iodimetry, while some evidence of autoxidation of both DEE and DIPE were obtained from these experiments.     

Influence of paint chips on lead concentration in the soil of public playgrounds in Tokyo

Lead concentration in the surface soils from 31 playgrounds in a ward in Tokyo was measured to examine if paint chips, peeled off from playing equipment installed in the playgrounds, contribute to elevated Pb concentration in the soil of public playgrounds. Lead concentration in the paint chips sampled from playgrounds ranged from 0.003 to 8.9%. Lead concentration in the surface soil ranged from 15.2 to 237 mg kg(-1) (average, 55.5 mg kg(-1)) and higher Pb concentration was found in the soil near painted playing equipment indicating that paint chips from playing equipment contributed to increase soil Pb level of playgrounds in Tokyo. The degree of peeling-off of paint on the surface of playing equipment in the public playground (peeling-off index: POI) positively correlated with Pb concentration in the soil (Spearman rank-correlation coefficient, r = 0.366, p = 0.043). The stronger correlation between Pb concentration and isotope ratios (207Pb/206Pb and Pb conc., r = 0.536, p = 0.002, 208Pb/206Pb and Pb conc. r = 0.600, p < 0.001) than that between Pb and POI indicated that gasoline Pb contributed more to the playground-to-playground variation in soil Pb concentration. It was concluded that both gasoline Pb of the past and paint chips contributed to increased Pb concentration in the surface soil of playgrounds in Tokyo, though the contribution of paint chips is smaller than gasoline Pb.     

Correlation between stomach temperatures and ambient water temperatures in free-ranging loggerhead turtles,Caretta caretta

Instruments were attached to loggerhead turtles, Caretta caretta, at Kamoda Point, Japan in 1989 and on the Senri-coast, Japan in 1991. We simultaneously obtained stomach temperatures, ambient water temperatures and diving depths from four free-ranging loggerhead turtles during the internesting periods, using small recorders. These data were analyzed to understand how body temperature was maintained. Ambient water temperatures changed coincidentally when turtles moved up or down, but a stable stomach temperatures was maintained despite water temperature fluctuations of ca. 20 to 90 min in duration. Loggerhead turtles also experienced water temperature fluctuations longer than 24 h. Stomach temperatures responded to those water temperature changes with a time lag of several hours (160, 170, 230 and 240 min). Stomach temperatures were higher than ambient water temperatures throughout the experimental periods. The median values of the thermal difference between stomach and water temperatures were 1.1, 1.3, 1.5 and 1.7°C. The higher stomach temperatures are thought to be caused by metabolic heat production.     

Methods and impact of health screening for hospital staff

This study examines: (1) the impact of two methods of giving screening results on health behaviour and beliefs, evaluated in a randomized controlled trial. (2) The association between uptake of screening and health risk behaviours and beliefs. Two methods of feedback of screening results were given: simple informational feedback, and more extensive feedback, including target-setting and a written contract. At six month follow-up, those who received simple informational feedback had lost less weight and had increased their exercise less than those who received more extensive feedback. Attenders believed more strongly in the relationship between lifestyle and health, perceived themselves as less healthy than others and scored higher on the GHQ than staff who did not attend for screening. These results suggest that belief in the effectiveness of lifestyle change in promoting health, and anxiety about health, can influence uptake of screening. Second, the method of presenting screening results can influence the impact of screening on subsequent behaviour change.     

Cognitive skills underlying driving in patients discharged following self-poisoning with central nervous system depressant drugs

Background: Central nervous system-depressant (CNS-Ds) drugs can impair cognitive functions and driving. They are also the most common drugs taken in overdose in hospital-treated episodes of self-poisoning. In Australia most of these patients are discharged within 48?h, while they still have possible subclinical drug effects. We aimed to determine whether patients treated for self-poisoning with CNS-Ds are impaired in the Trail-Making Test (TMT, parts A and B), a neuropsychological test that is known to correlate with driving performance. Methods: This study was a conducted from November 2008 to April 2011 in a referral center for poisonings in New South Wales, Australia. One hundred seven patients discharged from the clinical toxicology unit following treatment for self-poisoning of CNS-Ds (benzodiazepines, atypical antipsychotics, or opioids) and a control group of 68 discharged following self-poisoning of non-CNS-depressant drugs (acetaminophen or nonsedating antidepressants) were tested with the TMT (parts A and B). Due to the known association of impaired TMT with driving impairment and increased risk of traffic accidents, performance less than the 10th percentile for age was defined as significant impairment in each part of the TMT. The odds ratio (OR) for impairment in each part was calculated in multivariate logistic regression (MLR) models adjusted for gender, education, IQ, and the presence of a major psychiatric illness. A secondary MLR analysis was conducted only for those patients (78 CNS-D and 54 control group participants) who were directly discharged home, after excluding those who were transferred for further psychiatric care. Results: The odds of impairment in the CNS-D group was 2.8?times that of the control group on the TMT-A (38 [35.5%] vs. 11 [16.2%]: adjusted OR = 2.76, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-5.97), and 4.6?times on the TMT-B (67 [62.6%] vs. 22 [32.4%]: adjusted OR = 4.63, 95% CI: 2.06-10.42). The results were similar in the subgroup of patients discharged home, and the odds of impairment in the CNS-D group was 3.3?times that of the control group on the TMT-A (25 [32.1%] vs. 7 [13.0%]: adjusted OR = 3.30, 95% CI: 1.28-8.52), and 3.6?times on the TMT-B (46 [59.0%] vs. 17 [31.5%]: adjusted OR = 3.64, 95% CI: 1.44-9.20). TMT-B impairment in the CNS-D group remained significant even after adjusting for TMT-A performance. Conclusions: Patients with CNS-D overdose may have significant impairment in cognitive skills underlying driving at the time of discharge from hospitals. Clinicians should warn these patients that their driving skills might still be impaired, even if they are considered clinically recovered and advise them not to drive during the first 1 to 2?days following discharge.     

A GIS-based evaluation of the effect of decontamination on effective doses due to long-term external exposures in Fukushima

Despite the enormous cost of radiation decontamination, there has been almost no quantitative discussion on how much it would reduce the long-term external radiation exposure in the Evacuation Zone and Planned Evacuation Zone (restricted zone) in Fukushima. The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of decontamination and return options and to identify important parameters for estimating the long-term cumulated effective dose (CED) during 15, 30 and 70 year period using data on land-use, population and decontamination in the restricted zone (about 1100 km²) in Fukushima.     

The psychological effects of false-positive results in prenatal screening for fetal abnormality: A prospective study

The purpose of the study was to describe the impact of false-positive results from initial maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MS-AFP) screening. The analyses compared two groups of women, those receiving a negative result (n = 346) and those receiving an initial positive result (n = 26), over four time points—prior to testing, immediately after testing, later in pregnancy, and in the post-partum period. Receiving an abnormal result was associated with high levels of anxiety which were reflected in increased worry about the baby's health and a more negative attitude towards the pregnancy and the baby. Women who had an initial abnormal result were offered a variety of further tests. Those women who went on to have amniocentesis were less worried about their baby's health in the third trimester and also less anxious post-partum than those who did not have amniocentesis. In view of the increasing number of screening tests available, it is necessary to establish whether and how these levels of distress can best be reduced.     

Photodegradation fates of cis-chlordane, trans-chlordane, and heptachlor in ethanol

cis-Chlordane, trans-chlordane, and heptachlor were photodegraded in ethanol, and their degradation fates and degradation products were determined by a computational chemical method. The most degradable material was heptachlor (first-order reaction constant k=0.13 min(-1)). Chlorine balances changed during UV irradiation, and the chlorine atoms in chlordane and heptachlor were eventually mineralized. cis-Chlordane, trans-chlordane and heptachlor each generated two di-dechlorinated products. Reactivities at various positions in these compounds were predicted on the basis of bond dissociation energies calculated by nonempirical molecular orbital calculation (Gaussian 98W).