Mapping Three‐Dimensional Water‐Quality Data in the Chesapeake Bay Using Geostatistics1

Abstract:  Data interpretation and visualization software tools with geostatistical capabilities were adapted, customized, and tested to assist the Chesapeake Bay Program in improving its water‐quality modeling protocols. Tools were required to interpolate, map, and visualize three‐dimensional (3D) water‐quality data, with the capability to determine estimation errors. Components of the software, originally developed for ground‐water modeling, were customized for application in estuaries. Additional software components were developed for retrieval, and for pre‐ and post‐ processing of data. The Chesapeake Bay Program uses the 3D mapped data for input to the Bay water‐quality model that projects the future health of the Bay and its tidal tributary system. In determining water‐quality attainment criteria, 3D kriging estimation errors are needed as a statistical measure of uncertainty. Furthermore, given the high cost of installing and operating new monitoring stations, geostatistical techniques can assist the Chesapeake Bay Program in the identification of suitable data collection locations. Following the evaluation, selection, and development of the software components phase, 3D ordinary kriging techniques with directional semi‐variograms to account for anisotropy were successfully demonstrated for mapping 3D fixed station water‐quality data, such as dissolved oxygen and salinity. Additionally, an improved delineation tool was implemented to simulate the upper and lower pycnocline boundary surfaces allowing the segregation of the interpolated 3D data into three separate zones for a better characterization of the pycnocline layer.     

Long-term increases in surface water dissolved organic carbon: observations, possible causes and environmental impacts

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in 22 UK upland waters have increased by an average of 91% during the last 15 years. Increases have also occurred elsewhere in the UK, northern Europe and North America. A range of potential drivers of these trends are considered, including temperature, rainfall, acid deposition, land-use, nitrogen and CO2 enrichment. From examination of recent environmental changes, spatial patterns in observed trends, and analysis of time series, it is suggested that DOC may be increasing in response to a combination of declining acid deposition and rising temperatures; however it is difficult to isolate mechanisms based on monitoring data alone. Long-term DOC increases may have wide-ranging impacts on freshwater biota, drinking water quality, coastal marine ecosystems and upland carbon balances. Full understanding of the significance of these increases requires further knowledge of the extent of natural long-term variability, and of the natural "reference" state of these systems.     

Temporal trends in spheroidal carbonaceous particle deposition derived from annual sediment traps and lake sediment cores and their relationship with non-marine sulphate

Spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs) provide an unambiguous indication of atmospherically deposited contamination from industrial sources. SCP data from a 12 year annual sediment trapping and coring programme at 14 lakes based on the UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network, were used to consider temporal trends in deposition and to compare these with measured non-marine sulphate fluxes. Results show good temporal coherence across a broad area of northern UK and that SCP deposition levels and are now at their lowest since the 1940s, in agreement with modelled sulphate data. SCP fluxes show reasonable linearity with measured non-marine sulphate depositional fluxes from the nearest UK Acid Deposition Monitoring Network sites, especially over the post-flue-gas desulphurisation period, but comparisons prior to 1972 are not possible due to lack of data. We speculate on whether palaeolimnological SCP data might be used to reconstruct the history of non-marine sulphate fluxes from industrial sources.     

Evaluation of phosphorus loads from Ontario municipal wastewater treatment plants

Results are presented from an evaluation of the nature and accuracy of phosphorus loads discharged by Ontario municipal wastewater treatment plants into the Great Lakes. Data were examined for the 96 plants treating flows in excess of 4546 m³d^-1 for the period 1981 to 1985. For the Lake Erie, Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence River and Upper Great Lakes basins, total basin phosphorus loads were classified according to type of wastewater treatment system, the type of chemical added for phosphorus removal, plant capacity, and sampling frequency. Load estimation techniques were compared using the 1985 daily data from three representative treatment plants. Annual phosphorus loads were compared using the complete data records for the plants and using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate an incomplete data record typical of once per week effluent phosphorus sampling. Potential sources of bias were identified in annual phosphorus load estimates from municipal treatment plants.     

Consequence of altered nitrogen cycles in the coupled human and ecological system under changing climate: The need for long-term and site-based research

Anthropogenically derived nitrogen (N) has a central role in global environmental changes, including climate change, biodiversity loss, air pollution, greenhouse gas emission, water pollution, as well as food production and human health. Current understanding of the biogeochemical processes that govern the N cycle in coupled human–ecological systems around the globe is drawn largely from the long-term ecological monitoring and experimental studies. Here, we review spatial and temporal patterns and trends in reactive N emissions, and the interactions between N and other important elements that dictate their delivery from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems, and the impacts of N on biodiversity and human society. Integrated international and long-term collaborative studies covering research gaps will reduce uncertainties and promote further understanding of the nitrogen cycle in various ecosystems.     

Biological responses to the chemical recovery of acidified fresh waters in the UK

We report biological changes at several UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network lakes and streams that are spatially consistent with the recovery of water chemistry induced by reductions in acid deposition. These include trends toward more acid-sensitive epilithic diatom and macroinvertebrate assemblages, an increasing proportional abundance of macroinvertebrate predators, an increasing occurrence of acid-sensitive aquatic macrophyte species, and the recent appearance of juvenile (<1 year old) brown trout in some of the more acidic flowing waters. Changes are often shown to be directly linked to annual variations in acidity. Although indicative of biological improvement in response to improving water chemistry, "recovery" in most cases is modest and very gradual. While specific ecological recovery endpoints are uncertain, it is likely that physical and biotic interactions are influencing the rate of recovery of certain groups of organisms at particular sites.     

Trends in surface water chemistry of acidified UK freshwaters, 1988-2002

Analysis of water chemistry data from 15 years of monitoring at 22 acid-sensitive lakes and streams in the UK reveals coherent national chemical trends indicative of recovery from acidification. Excess sulphate and base cations exhibit significant decline, often accompanied by an increase in an alkalinity-based determination of acid neutralising capacity (AB-ANC) and, at fewer sites, a decline in hydrogen and labile aluminium. Acid neutralising capacity determined by "charge-balance" (CB-ANC) exhibits few trends, possibly due to compound errors associated with its determination. Trend slopes in excess sulphate correlate with those for base cations, hydrogen ion and AB-ANC, with between-site variability linked to catchment hydrology, sea-salt inputs and forestry. Nitrate concentrations have not changed significantly but show high sensitivity to varying climate. Trends in AB-ANC are influenced by significant increases in dissolved organic carbon, the cause of which it is vital to establish before trends in the former can definitively be attributed to decreasing acidic deposition.     

Natural and Anthropogenic Changes in The Chemistry of Six UK Mountain Lakes, 1988 to 2000

Trends have been analysed for 12 years ofchemical data from six mountain lakes in the UK AcidWaters Monitoring Network (AWMN). With minimal localanthropogenic impacts, these sites offer the bestavailable opportunity for clear identification of surfacewater chemical response to external factors, whethernatural or anthropogenic. Results indicate that naturalclimatic variations have had a major impact on lakechemistry, through fluctuations in (i) intensity ofstorms, which cause dilution of weathering-derived basecations, and/or displacement of hydrogen and aluminiumions on soil exchange sites by deposited marine basecations; and (ii) winter temperature, which is thought tobe inversely related to spring nitrate (NO₃) maxima.Both climatic factors can be linked to the North AtlanticOscillation. For the first decade of AWMN monitoringthese natural `confounding factors' to a significantextent obscured any recovery from acidification due todeclining anthropogenic sulphur deposition. However, theadditional data presented here provide strengtheningevidence for chemical recovery at a number of sites, atwhich decreases in sulphate (SO₄), acidity andlabile aluminium can now be identified. It is believedthat changes at these sensitive mountain lake sites mayherald more widespread recovery in UK surface waters aspollutant emissions decline further. However, largeincreases in dissolved organic carbon, and hence inorganic acidity, may have partially offset reductions inmineral acidity. The cause of these increases remainsuncertain, but may be linked to climatic change.     

Effect of bubble-induced surface turbulence on gas-liquid mass transfer in diffused aeration systems.

Models that predict volatilization of organic compounds from wastewater treatment basins may underestimate emission rates if the surfaces are considered as quiescent. In reality, the water surface may be agitated by subsurface aeration, increasing mass transfer across the tank surface air-water interface. This study investigated the effect of turbulence, induced by diffused bubble aeration, on mass transfer at the water surface of a pilot aeration basin. The mass transfer of ammonia from an enclosed headspace over the basin to acidified water was measured when different diffuser types and airflow rates were applied. Oxygen-transfer tests were conducted immediately following each ammonia-transfer test. Increasing airflow rates through fine- and coarse-bubble diffusers had a significant effect on the ammonia mass-transfer rate. Experimental mass-transfer parameters (K(L)a's) for surface volatilization derived with aeration present were up to 48% higher than the K(L)a values for quiescent conditions over the range of conditions tested. No effect of diffuser type on ammonia transfer could be determined. The study results infer an effect on oxygen transfer into the water at the surface and potential transfer of volatile organic compounds, if present, from the water. The results of the ammonia mass-transfer experiments suggest that adjustments to the existing mass transfer correlations for surface volatilization from aeration basins may be in order. Such adjustments will have the greatest effect on predictions for the less volatile compounds, under conditions of low airflow rates.     

A rational procedure for estimation of greenhouse-gas emissions from municipal wastewater treatment plants.

Municipal wastewater treatment may lead to the emission of greenhouse gases. The current Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva, Switzerland) approach attributes only methane emissions to wastewater treatment, but this approach may overestimate greenhouse gas emissions from the highly aerobic processes primarily used in North America. To better estimate greenhouse gas emissions, a procedure is developed that can be used either with plant-specific data or more general regional data. The procedure was evaluated using full-scale data from 16 Canadian wastewater treatment facilities and then applied to all 10 Canadian provinces. The principal greenhouse gas emitted from municipal wastewater treatment plants was estimated to be carbon dioxide (CO2), with very little methane expected. The emission rates ranged from 0.005 kg CO2-equivalent/m3 treated for primary treatment facilities to 0.26 kg CO2-equivalent/m3 for conventional activated sludge, with anaerobic sludge digestion to over 0.8 kg CO2-equivalent/m3 for extended aeration with aerobic digestion. Increasing the effectiveness of biogas generation and use will decrease the greenhouse gas emissions that may be assigned to the wastewater treatment plant.