Evaluation of a Three‐Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model Applied to Chesapeake Bay Through Long‐Term Simulation of Transport Processes

A numerical model, the Curvilinear Hydrodynamics in 3‐Dimensions, Waterway Experiment Station version (CH3D‐WES), was applied to represent transport processes of the Chesapeake Bay. Grid resolution and spatial coverage, tied with realistic bathymetry, ensured dynamic responses along the channel and near the shoreline. The model was run with the forcing ranges from high frequency astronomical tides to lower frequency meteorological forcing, given by surface wind and heat flux, as well as hydrological forcing given by fresh water inflows both from upstream and distributed sources along the shoreline. To validate the model, a long‐term simulation over seven‐year time period between 1994 and 2000 was performed. The model results were compared with existing observation data including water level time series, which spans over a wide spectrum of time scales, and long‐term variations in salinity structures over varying parts of the Bay. The validated model is set to provide an appropriate transport mechanism to the water quality model through linkage, warranting that the model takes into account the complexity in time and spatial scales associated with the dynamic processes in the Chesapeake.     

Deriving Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Standards

Achieving and maintaining the water quality conditions necessary to protect the aquatic living resources of the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries has required a foundation of quantifiable water quality criteria. Quantitative criteria serve as a critical basis for assessing the attainment of designated uses and measuring progress toward meeting water quality goals of the Chesapeake Bay Program partnership. In 1987, the Chesapeake Bay Program partnership committed to defining the water quality conditions necessary to protect aquatic living resources. Under section 303(c) of the Clean Water Act, States and authorized tribes have the primary responsibility for adopting water quality standards into law or regulation. The Chesapeake Bay Program partnership worked with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to develop and publish a guidance framework of ambient water quality criteria with designated uses and assessment procedures for dissolved oxygen, water clarity, and chlorophyll a for Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries in 2003. This article reviews the derivation of the water quality criteria, criteria assessment protocols, designated use boundaries, and their refinements published in six addendum documents since 2003 and successfully adopted into each jurisdiction's water quality standards used in developing the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load.     

Twenty‐One‐Year Simulation of Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Using the CE‐QUAL‐ICM Eutrophication Model

The CE‐QUAL‐ICM (Corps of Engineers Integrated Compartment Water Quality Model) eutrophication model was applied in a 21‐year simulation of Chesapeake Bay water quality, 1985‐2005. The eutrophication model is part of a larger model package and is forced, in part, by models of atmospheric deposition, watershed flows and loads, and hydrodynamics. Results from the model are compared with observations in multiple formats including time series plots, cumulative distribution plots, and statistical summaries. The model indicates only one long‐term trend in computed water quality: light attenuation deteriorates circa 1993 through the end of the simulation. The most significant result is the influence of physical processes, notably stratification and associated effects (e.g., anoxic volume), on computed water quality. Within the application period, physical effects are more important determinants of year‐to‐year variability in computed water quality than external loads.     

Improvement in HSPF's Low‐Flow Predictions by Implementation of a Power Law Groundwater Storage‐Discharge Relationship

We have enhanced the ability of a widely used watershed model, Hydrologic Simulation Program — FORTRAN (HSPF), to predict low flows by reconfiguring the algorithm that simulates groundwater discharge. During dry weather periods, flow in most streams consists primarily of base flow, that is, groundwater discharged from underlying aquifers. In this study, HSPF's groundwater storage‐discharge relationship is changed from a linear to a more general nonlinear relationship which takes the form of a power law. The nonlinear algorithm is capable of simulating streamflow recession curves that have been found in some studies to better match observed dry weather hydrographs. The altered version of HSPF is implemented in the Chesapeake Bay Program's Phase 5 Model, an HSPF‐based model that simulates nutrient and sediment loads to the Chesapeake Bay, and is tested in the upper Potomac River basin, a 29,950 km² drainage area that is part of the Bay watershed. The nonlinear relationship improved median Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiencies for log daily flows at the model's 45 calibration points. Mean absolute percent error on low‐flow days dropped in five major Potomac River tributaries by up to 12 percentage points, and in the Potomac River itself by four percentage points, where low‐flow days were defined as days when observed flows were in the lowest 5th percentile range. Percent bias on low‐flow days improved by eight percentage points in the Potomac River, from ?11 to ?3%.     

Development and Application of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Model

The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model simulates the Chesapeake watershed land use, river flows, and the associated transport and fate of nutrient and sediment loads to the Chesapeake Bay. The Phase 5.3 Model is the most recent of a series of increasingly refined versions of a model that have been operational for more than two decades. The Phase 5.3 Model, in conjunction with models of the Chesapeake airshed and estuary, provides estimates of management actions needed to protect water quality, achieve Chesapeake water quality standards, and restore living resources. The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model tracks nutrient and sediment load estimates of the entire 166,000 km² watershed, including loads from all six watershed states. The creation of software systems, input datasets, and calibration methods were important aspects of the model development process. A community model approach was taken with model development and application, and the model was developed by a broad coalition of model practitioners including environmental engineers, scientists, and environmental managers. Among the users of the Phase 5.3 Model are the Chesapeake watershed states and local governments, consultants, river basin commissions, and universities. Development and application of the model are described, as well as key scenarios ranging from high nutrient and sediment load conditions if no management actions were taken in the watershed, to low load estimates of an all‐forested condition.     

Total Maximum Daily Load Criteria Assessment Using Monitoring and Modeling Data

Applications of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) criteria for complex estuarine systems like Chesapeake Bay have been limited by difficulties in estimating precisely how changes in input loads will impact ambient water quality. A method to deal with this limitation combines the strengths of the Chesapeake Bay's Water Quality Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM), which simulates load response, and the Chesapeake Bay Program's robust historical monitoring dataset. The method uses linear regression to apply simulated relative load responses to historical observations of water quality at a given location and time. Steps to optimize the application of regression analysis were to: (1) determine the best temporal and spatial scale for applying the WQSTM scenarios, (2) determine whether the WQSTM method remained valid with significant perturbation from calibration conditions, and (3) evaluate the need for log transformation of both dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll a (CHL) datasets. The final method used simple linear regression at the single month, single WQSTM grid cell scale to quantify changes in DO and CHL resulting from simulated load reduction scenarios. The resulting linear equations were applied to historical monitoring data to produce a set of “scenario‐modified” DO or CHL concentration estimates. The utility of the regression method was validated by its ability to estimate progressively increasing attainment in support of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay TMDL.     

The Shallow‐Water Component of the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Model Package

The shallow‐water component of the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Model Package emphasizes the regions of the system inside the 2‐m depth contour. The model of these regions is unified with the system‐wide model but places emphasis on locally significant components and processes, notably submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), sediment resuspension, and their interaction with light attenuation (Ke). The SAV model is found to be most suited for computing the equilibrium distribution of perennial species. Addition of plant structure and propagation are recommended to improve representation of observed trends in SAV area. Two approaches are taken to examining shallow‐water Ke. The first compares observed and computed differences between deep‐ and shallow‐water Ke. No consistent difference in observations is noted. In the preponderance of regions examined, computed shallow‐water Ke exceeds computed deep‐water Ke. The second approach directly compares Ke measured in shallow water with modeled results. Model values are primarily lower than observed, in contrast to results in deep water where model values exceed observed. The shortfall in computed Ke mirrors a similar shortfall in computed suspended solids. Improved model representation of Ke requires process‐based investigations into suspended solids dynamics as well as increased model resolution in shallow‐water regions.     

Integrated Modular Modeling of Water and Nutrients From Point and Nonpoint Sources in the Patuxent River Watershed1

Abstract: We present a simple modular landscape simulation model that is based on a watershed modeling framework in which different sets of processes occurring in a watershed can be simulated separately with different models. The model consists of three loosely coupled submodels: a rainfall‐runoff model (TOPMODEL) for runoff generation in a subwatershed, a nutrient model for estimation of nutrients from nonpoint sources in a subwatershed, and a stream network model for integration of point and nonpoint sources in the routing process. The model performance was evaluated using monitoring data in the watershed of the Patuxent River, a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland, from July 1997 through August 1999. Despite its simplicity, the landscape model predictions of streamflow, and sediment and nutrient loads were as good as or better than those of the Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran model, one of the most widely used comprehensive watershed models. The landscape model was applied to predict discharges of water, sediment, silicate, organic carbon, nitrate, ammonium, organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, organic phosphorus, phosphate, and total phosphorus from the Patuxent watershed to its estuary. The predicted annual water discharge to the estuary was very close to the measured annual total in terms of percent errors for both years of the study period (≤2%). The model predictions for loads of nutrients were also good (20‐30%) or very good (<20%) with exceptions of sediment (40%), phosphate (36%), and organic carbon (53%) for Year 1.     

Computing Atmospheric Nutrient Loads to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Tidal Waters

Application of integrated Chesapeake Bay models of the airshed, watershed, and estuary support air and water nitrogen controls in the Chesapeake. The models include an airshed model of the Mid‐Atlantic region which tracks the estimated atmospheric deposition loads of nitrogen to the watershed, tidal Bay, and adjacent coastal ocean. The three integrated models allow tracking of the transport and fate of nitrogen air emissions, including deposition in the Chesapeake watershed, the subsequent uptake, transformation, and transport to Bay tidal waters, and their ultimate influence on Chesapeake water quality. This article describes the development of the airshed model, its application to scenarios supporting the Chesapeake Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), and key findings from the scenarios. Key findings are that the atmospheric deposition loads are among the largest input loads of nitrogen in the watershed, and that the indirect nitrogen deposition loads to the watershed, which are subsequently delivered to the Bay are larger than the direct loads of atmospheric nitrogen deposition to Chesapeake tidal waters. Atmospheric deposition loads of nitrogen deposited in coastal waters, which are exchanged with the Chesapeake, are also estimated. About half the atmospheric deposition loads of nitrogen originate from outside the Chesapeake watershed. For the first time in a TMDL, the loads of atmospheric nitrogen deposition are an explicit part of the TMDL load reductions.     

Estimating Hydraulic Properties of Volcanic Aquifers Using Constant‐Rate and Variable‐Rate Aquifer Tests1

Abstract: In recent years the ground‐water demand of the population of the island of Maui, Hawaii, has significantly increased. To ensure prudent management of the ground‐water resources, an improved understanding of ground‐water flow systems is needed. At present, large‐scale estimations of aquifer properties are lacking for Maui. Seven analytical methods using constant‐rate and variable‐rate withdrawals for single wells provide an estimate of hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity for 103 wells in central Maui. Methods based on constant‐rate tests, although not widely used on Maui, offer reasonable estimates. Step‐drawdown tests, which are more abundantly used than other tests, provide similar estimates as constant‐rate tests. A numerical model validates the suitability of analytical solutions for step‐drawdown tests and additionally provides an estimate of storage parameters. The results show that hydraulic conductivity is log‐normally distributed and that for dike‐free volcanic rocks it ranges over several orders of magnitude from 1 to 2,500 m/d. The arithmetic mean, geometric mean, and median values of hydraulic conductivity are respectively 520, 280, and 370 m/d for basalt and 80, 50, and 30 m/d for sediment. A geostatistical approach using ordinary kriging yields a prediction of hydraulic conductivity on a larger scale. Overall, the results are in agreement with values published for other Hawaiian islands.     

COST‐EFFECTIVE POINT‐NONPOINT TRADING: AN APPLICATION TO THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Point‐nonpoint trading has been suggested as a relatively efficient approach for reducing nutrient pollution in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere. However, relatively little economic research has examined the design of trading programs involving nonpoint sources. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economics of several fundamental design choices for point‐nonpoint trading programs. The Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) in Pennsylvania as an example, although many of the insights should generally apply to other regions as well.     

Development of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Allocation

Nutrient load allocations and subsequent reductions in total nitrogen and phosphorus have been applied in the Chesapeake watershed since 1992 to reduce hypoxia and to restore living resources. In 2010, sediment allocations were established to augment nutrient allocations supporting the submerged aquatic vegetation resource. From the initial introduction of nutrient allocations in 1992 to the present, the allocations have become more completely applied to all areas and loads in the watershed and have also become more rigorously assessed and tracked. The latest 2010 application of nutrient and sediment allocations were made as part of the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load and covered all six states of the Chesapeake watershed. A quantitative allocation process was developed that applied principles of equity and efficiency in the watershed, while achieving all tidal water quality standards through an assessment of equitable levels of effort in reducing nutrients and sediments. The level of effort was determined through application of two key watershed scenarios: one where no action was taken in nutrient control and one where maximum nutrient control efforts were applied. Once the level of effort was determined for different jurisdictions, the overall load reduction was set watershed‐wide to achieve dissolved oxygen water quality standards. Further adjustments were made to the allocation to achieve the James River chlorophyll‐a standard.     

Integration of SWAT and HSPF for Simulation of Sediment Sources in Legacy Sediment‐Impacted Agricultural Watersheds

A total maximum daily load for the Chesapeake Bay requires reduction in pollutant load from sources within the Bay watersheds. The Conestoga River watershed has been identified as a major source of sediment load to the Bay. Upland loads of sediment from agriculture are a concern; however, a large proportion of the sediment load in the Conestoga River has been linked to scour of legacy sediment associated with historic millpond sites. Clarifying this distinction and identifying specific segments associated with upland vs. channel sources has important implications for future management. In order to address this important question, we combined the strengths of two widely accepted watershed management models — Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for upland agricultural processes, and Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) for instream fate and transport — to create a novel linked modeling system to predict sediment loading from critical sources in the watershed including upland and channel sources, and to aid in targeted implementation of management practices. The model indicates approximately 66% of the total sediment load is derived from instream sources, in agreement with other studies in the region and can be used to support identification of these channel source segments vs. upland source segments, further improving targeted management. The innovated linked SWAT‐HSPF model implemented in this study is useful for other watersheds where both upland agriculture and instream processes are important sources of sediment load.     

Modeling atmospheric nitrogen deposition and transport in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Atmospheric deposition of nitrate nitrogen and ammonium nitrogen has been identified as a major factor in the decline of water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. Reports have indicated that atmospheric deposition may account for 25 to 80% of the total nitrogen load entering the bay. However, uncertainties exist regarding the accuracy of the atmospheric deposition inputs, nitrogen retention coefficients, and in-stream nutrient uptake rates used in these studies. This project was designed to reassess the potential inputs of atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the bay through the use of a high-resolution wet deposition model, improved wet and dry deposition and nutrient retention estimates, existing soils and land use data, and geographic information systems software. Model results indicate that the methods used in previous studies may overestimate the contribution of atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition to the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW). Wet and dry atmospheric nitrate and ammonium nitrogen deposition estimates to the CBW ranged from 52.7 to 141.9 and 41.9 to 60.1 million kg/yr, respectively, between 1984 and 1996. Dry and total atmospheric deposition loads to the watershed are substantially less than previous estimates. Estimates of the percent contribution of atmospherically deposited nitrogen to the Chesapeake Bay represent between 20 and 32% of the total nitrate and ammonium nitrogen load to the watershed from all nitrogen sources. While these estimates are lower than many other published estimates, regression analysis of model parameters, nitrogen retention coefficients, output, and measured in-stream nitrogen loads indicate that the calculated nitrogen loads may still be too high.     

NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION POTENTIAL IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: A 155,947 ha portion of the Shenango River watershed in western Pennsylvania was evaluated as to the potential impact of agriculture drainage on water quality. Approximately a third of the area is being used as either cropland or pasture with approximately an equal percentage in forest lands. Eleven subwatersheds were evaluated as to their potential for nonpoint source pollution according to the criteria established by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources for the Chesapeake Bay Pollution Abatement Program. The individual components and overall rating for each subwatershed were then evaluated as to their correlation with four water quality variables based on 104 samples collected at 26 sampling stations throughout the watershed. There was a significant correlation between the overall rating factor for each subwatershed and each of the four water quality variables. In general, the watershed delivery factor, animal nutrient factor, and management factors were correlated with fecal coliform and phosphorus in the receiving streams, whereas the ground water delivery factor appeared to be more important in determining nitrate concentrations in these streams. These results indicate that manure and nutrient management, along with the exclusion of livestock from streams and the enhancement and/or replacement of riparian wetlands, are important approaches in reducing agricultural impacts in fresh water ecosystems.     

THREE‐DIMENSIONAL KRIGING ANALYSIS OF SEDIMENT MERCURY DISTRIBUTION: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: This study presents an application of a three‐dimensional kriging technique to estimate spatial distribution of total mercury (Hg) in the Cedar‐Ortega Rivers watershed located in the lower St. Johns River basin, Florida. The kriging procedures, including preliminary data analysis, structural data analysis and the log kriging estimation, are presented. Results show watershed wide Hg contamination of river sediment to a depth of 1.0 m. A three‐dimensional plot of Hg against the Florida Sediment Assessment Guidelines (i.e., the probable effect level or PEL) demonstrates that the Cedar River is more contaminated with Hg than the rest of the watershed. The maximum sediment depth with Hg concentrations above PEL value (0.696 mg/kg) is 1.5 m. Hg concentrations at or above this level could pose a significant hazard to aquatic organisms. Analysis of the spatial distribution of Hg in the watershed finds multiple input sources. This study suggests that there is a need to identify the major sources of Hg in the watershed, and to determine the pathways that allow Hg to enter the river.     

Chesapeake Bay eutrophication: scientific understanding, ecosystem restoration, and challenges for agriculture

Chesapeake Bay has been the subject of intensive research on cultural eutrophication and extensive efforts to reduce nutrient inputs. In 1987 a commitment was made to reduce controllable sources of nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) by 40% by the year 2000, although the causes and effects of eutrophication were incompletely known. Subsequent research, modeling, and monitoring have shown that: (i) the estuarine ecosystem had been substantially altered by increased loadings of N and P of approximately 7- and 18-fold, respectively; (ii) hypoxia substantially increased since the 1950s; (iii) eutrophication was the major cause of reductions in submerged vegetation; and (iv) reducing nutrient sources by 40% would improve water quality, but less than originally thought. Strong public support and political commitment have allowed the Chesapeake Bay Program to reduce nutrient inputs, particularly from point sources, by 58% for P and 28% for N. However, reductions of nonpoint sources of P and N were projected by models to reach only 19% and 15%, respectively, of controllable loadings. The lack of reductions in nutrient concentrations in some streams and tidal waters and field research suggest that soil conservation-based management strategies are less effective than assumed. In 1997, isolated outbreaks of the toxic dinoflagellate Pfiesteria piscicida brought attention to the land application of poultry manure as a contributing factor to elevated soil P and ground water N concentrations. In addition to developing more effective agricultural practices, emerging issues include linking eutrophication and living resources, reducing atmospheric sources of N, enhancing nutrient sinks, controlling sprawling suburban development, and predicting and preventing harmful algal blooms.     

EFFECTS OF SCALE ON LAND USE AND WATER QUALITY RELATIONSHIPS: A LONGITUDINAL BASIN‐WIDE PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: Human land use is a major source of change in catchments in developing areas. To better anticipate the long‐term effects of growth, land use planning requires estimates of how changes in land use will affect ecosystem processes and patterns across multiple scales of space and time. The complexity of biogeochemical and hydrologic interactions within a basin makes it difficult to scale up from process‐based studies of individual reaches to watershed scales over multiple decades. Empirical models relating land use/land cover (LULC) to water quality can be useful in long‐term planning, but require an understanding of the effects of scale on apparent land use‐water quality relationships. We empirically determined how apparent relationships between water quality and LULC data change at different scales, using LIJLC data from the Willapa Bay watershed (Washington) and water quality data collected along the Willapa and North Rivers. Spatial scales examined ranged from the local riparian scale to total upstream catchment. The strength of the correlations between LTJLC data and longitudinal water quality trends varied with scale. Different water quality parameters also varied in their response to changes in scale. Intermediate scales of land use data generally were better predictors than local riparian or total catchment scales. Additional data from the stream network did not increase the strength of relationships significantly. Because of the likelihood of scale‐induced artifacts, studies quantifying land use‐water quality relationships performed at single scales should be viewed with great caution.