Use of Scale Invariance in Evaluating Judgement Indicators

Indicators are used to draw conclusions about ecological endpoints when these endpoints cannot be measured directly. In many cases, inferences about an endpoint are only possible because assumptions have been made about the relationship between indicator and endpoint; we refer to such indicators as judgement indicators. The validity of inferences made using a judgement indicator can be gauged by examining the known or assumed form of the general relationship between indicator and endpoint. The rules for this kind of inference are a consequence of scale invariance, which originates from measurement theory. For simple indicators comprised of a single indicator measurement, the inferences allowed – equivalence, rank, equality of intervals, and equality of ratios – depend on whether the data are nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio scaled. For composite indicators containing two or more simple indicators, inferences are also affected by the mathematical form of combination; e.g., whether the terms are summed or multiplied. Standardizing simple or composite indicators can allow inferences about the relative importance of observations, based on the natural range of occurrence. Scale invariance is a particularly important consideration in landscape assessments, since these often make use of judgement indicators.     

Climate change favors rice production at higher elevations in Colombia

Rice (Oriza sativa) feeds nearly half of the world’s population. Regional and national studies in Asia suggest that rice production will suffer under climate change, but researchers conducted few studies for other parts of the world. This research identifies suitable areas for cultivating irrigated rice in Colombia under current climates and for the 2050s, according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The methodology uses known locations of the crop, environmental variables, and maximum entropy and probabilistic methods to develop niche-based models for estimating the potential geographic distribution of irrigated rice. Results indicate that future climate change in Colombia could reduce the area that is suitable for rice production by 60%, from 4.4 to 1.8 million hectares. Low-lying rice production regions could be the most susceptible to changing environmental conditions, while mid-altitude valleys could see improvements in rice-growing conditions. In contrast to a country like China where rice production can move to higher latitudes, rice adaptation in tropical Colombia will favor higher elevations. These results suggest adaptation strategies for the Colombian rice sector. Farmers can adopt climate-resilient varieties or change water and agronomic management practices, or both. Other farmers may consider abandoning rice production for some other crop or activity.

     

Opportunities and constraints for organizations to help sustain tropical forest resources

A large number of organizations make decisions that directly or indirectly affect tropical forests. The principal constraints that affect these organizations are (1) insufficient funds; (2) insufficient knowledge about the resources and appropriate technologies; (3) institutional, cultural, and political factors; (4) inadequate communication; and (5) contradictory efforts. Opportunities for improving the efficiency and effectiveness of these organizations include (1) increasing cooperation among US government agencies; (2) redirecting international organizations; (3) increasing coordination among organizations; (4) boosting support of nongovernmental organizations and universities; (5) encouraging responsible involvement by private corporations; (6) strengthening existing organizations; and (7) creating new organizations.This article is drawn from US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment (1984), Technologies to Sustain Tropical Forest Resources, chap. 5. Other articles drawn from the OTA report are Hyman (1984a and b) and Hyman and Ross-Sheriff (1984). A larger number of organizations with activities related to tropical forestry are briefly described in the background paper (US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment 1983).     

Parameter uncertainty and sensitivity in a liquid-effluent dose model

Radioactive materials which are released into streams on the Savannah River Site (SRS) eventually flow into the Savannah River. Tritium, ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³⁷Cs, and ²³⁹Pu account for the majority of the radiation dose received by users of the Savannah River. This paper focuses on the dose uncertainties originating from variability in parameters describing the transport and uptake of these nuclides. Parameter sensitivity has also been determined for each liquid pathway exposure model. The models used here to estimate radiation dose to an exposed individual provide a range of possible dose estimates that span approximately one order of magnitude. A pathway analysis reveals that aquatic food and water consumption account for more than 95% of the total dose to an individual.     

JSEM: A Framework for Identifying and Evaluating Indicators

There are two issues in indicator development that have not been adequately addressed: (1) how to select an optimal combination of potentially redundant indicators that together best represent an endpoint, given cost constraints; (2) how to identify and evaluate indicators when the endpoint is unmeasured. This paper presents an approach to identifying and evaluating combinations of indicators when the mathematical relationships between the indicators and an endpoint may not be quantified, a limitation common to many ecological assessments. The approach uses the framework of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which combines path analysis withmeasurement models, to formalize available informationabout potential indicators and to evaluate their potential adequacy for representing an endpoint. Unlike traditional applications of SEM which require data on all variables, our approach – judgement-based SEM (JSEM) – can utilize expert judgement regarding the strengths and shapes of indicator-endpoint relationships. JSEM is applied in two stages. First, a conceptual model that relates variables in a network of direct and indirect linkages is developed, and is used to identify indicators relevant to an endpoint. Second, an index of indicator strength – i.e., the strength of the relationship between the endpoint and a set of indicators – is calculated from estimates of correlation between the modeled variables, and is used to compare alternative sets of indicators. The second stage is most appropriate for large, long-term assessments. Although JSEM is not a statistical technique, basing JSEM on SEM provides a structure for validating the conceptual model and for refining the index of indicator strength as data become available. Our main objective is to contribute to a rigorous and consistent selection of indicators even when knowledgeabout the ability of indicators to represent an endpoint is limited to expert judgement.     

Fuel substitution and efficient woodstoves: Are they the answers to the fuelwood supply problem in Northern Nigeria?

Fuelwood consumption in Northern Nigeria exceeds the sustainable production, and the deficit is currently met through long-distance transport from the southern part of the country at an artificially low cost Current household fuel consumption patterns and factors affecting stove choice are discussed. Little has been done to promote more efficient woodstoves in the region, but prospects for stove programs are only good where fuelwood is marketed and the policy environment is conducive. At subsidized official prices for kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and electricity, wood is more expensive on a net usable heat basis, but the high capital cost of stoves for these fuels prevents many households from switching. Moreover, these fuels are often only available at much higher parallel market prices, which result in wood being the less expensive choice. There is little prospect for substitution of coal, solar cookers, or biogas digesters.     

Forestry administration and policies in the Philippines

This article begins by summarizing the importance of the forestry sector in the Philippine economy It provides an overview of the multiplicity of Philippine governmental institutions involved in forestry in 1982 Then it discusses forestry laws in the country and concludes by examining fifteen critical forest policy issues: sustained yield management; area-specific logging bans; increased use of wood wastes; revision of forest charges; unprocessed log export ban; rationalization of the forest industry, acceleration of reforestation; protection of watersheds; recognition of the social dimensions of slash- and-burn agriculture; fuelwood supply; public land classification for forestry and agriculture, development of plantations for dendrothermal electricity; multiple-use management; preservation of mangrove areas, and improvements in administration and implementation.Research for this paper was supported by the East-West Center Environment and Policy Institute. The author would like to acknowledge the assistance of the Natural Resources Management Center of the Philippine Ministry of Natural Resources.