Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.     

Living with Wildlife and Mitigating Conflicts Around Three Indian Protected Areas

Crop and livestock losses to wildlife are a concern for people neighboring many protected areas (PAs) and can generate opposition to conservation. Examining patterns of conflict and associated tolerance is important to devise policies to reduce conflict impacts on people and wildlife. We surveyed 398 households from 178 villages within 10 km of Ranthambore, Kanha, and Nagarahole parks in India. We compared different attitudes toward wildlife, and presented hypothetical response scenarios, including killing the problem animal(s). Eighty percent of households reported crop losses to wildlife and 13 % livestock losses. Higher crop loss was associated with more cropping months per year, greater crop variety, and more harvest seasons per year but did not vary with proximity to the PA, suggesting that PAs are not necessarily “sources” for crop raiders. By contrast, complaints of “depredating carnivores” were associated with people-grazing animals and collecting resources from PAs. Many households (83 %) engaged in mitigation efforts. We found that only fencing and guard animals reduce crop losses, and no efforts to lower livestock losses. Contrary to our expectations, carnivores were not viewed with more hostility than crop-raiding wildlife. Households reported greater inclination to kill herbivores destroying crops or carnivores harming people, but not carnivores preying on livestock. Our model estimated crop loss was 82 % across surveyed households (highest in Kanha), while the livestock loss experienced was 27 % (highest in Ranthambore). Our comparative study provides insights into factors associated with conflict loss and tolerance, and aids in improving ongoing conservation and compensation efforts.     

Dynamics of a low‐density tiger population in Southeast Asia in the context of improved law enforcement

Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture‐recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624–1026 km² with 137–200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture‐recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood‐based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km², abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture–recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82–90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low‐density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade.     

Persistence and vertical distribution of termiticide fipronil in modified ground board test

Fipronil termiticide belongs to phenyl-pyrazole class of chemical compounds. It has broad-spectrum activity particularly against house hold pests such as cockroaches, mosquitoes, locusts, ticks, and fleas at both larval and adult stages. At high dosage it can be used to control subterranean termites in building foundations. To evaluate long term efficacy against termites the persistence and vertical distribution of fipronil was studied under natural weather conditions of Dehradun, India. Fipronil was applied at four concentrations i.e. 0.05, 0.1, 0.25 and 0.5% a.i ha⁻¹ by drenching 17 × 17 in.² plot prepared as per modified ground board test. Soil samples were collected after 22, 38 and 56 months of treatment up to the depth of 75 cm. The soil core was cut into five distinct sections i.e. 0–15, 15–30, 30–45, 45–60 and 60–75 cm depth. The residues were extracted by shaking 20 g soil sample with acetone. The acetone extract was concentrated and cleaned-up over florisil column. Fipronil residues were estimated on GLC at 220, 260, and 300°C oven, injector and detector temperature respectively. Fipronil was found to persist beyond 56 months after application. Two metabolites viz. desulfinyl and sulfide-fipronil were detected in sampling after 22 months of application that also dissipated with time. Fipronil residues were found up to 60 cm depth. The residues in deeper layers dissipate slowly with time and after 56 months of treatment residues were detected only up to 30 cm depth.     

印度大型哺乳动物的地方捕猎与保护

地方社会的捕猎是对印度野生动物最普遍的威胁之一,可是,对地方捕猎的性质、内容及其对野生动物的影响等方面的认识仍然很少.我们调查了印度南部的两个保护区-Kudremukha和Nagaraholé,评估了地方捕猎对大型哺乳动物的影响.我们通过对退役的和在役的猎人进行的细致采访,来描述捕猎格局.我们对比了捕猎脆弱性不同的相邻样地内大型哺乳动物的丰富度,来评估捕猎对其的影响.在Kudremukha,至少有26种哺乳动物被猎杀,多数是用枪支,估计密度为每村每月216个猎人工作日.在Nagarah01é那些强制措施较差的重猎区,9种重点大型哺乳动物中有6种密度显著要低.我们的数据强调:在大面积的地方捕猎区内,保护主义者的行动对大型哺乳动物保护来说,是十分重要的.     

Density estimation in tiger populations: combining information for strong inference

A productive way forward in studies of animal populations is to efficiently make use of all the information available, either as raw data or as published sources, on critical parameters of interest. In this study, we demonstrate two approaches to the use of multiple sources of information on a parameter of fundamental interest to ecologists: animal density. The first approach produces estimates simultaneously from two different sources of data. The second approach was developed for situations in which initial data collection and analysis are followed up by subsequent data collection and prior knowledge is updated with new data using a stepwise process. Both approaches are used to estimate density of a rare and elusive predator, the tiger, by combining photographic and fecal DNA spatial capture-recapture data. The model, which combined information, provided the most precise estimate of density (8.5 +/- 1.95 tigers/100 km2 [posterior mean +/- SD]) relative to a model that utilized only one data source (photographic, 12.02 +/- 3.02 tigers/100 km2 and fecal DNA, 6.65 +/- 2.37 tigers/100 km2). Our study demonstrates that, by accounting for multiple sources of available information, estimates of animal density can be significantly improved.     

Local hunting and the conservation of large mammals in India

Hunting by local communities is among the most widespread threats to Indian wildlife, yet, the understanding of its nature, extent, and impacts on wildlife has been poor. We surveyed 2 protected areas--Kudremukha and Nagara-holé--in southern India to assess the impacts of local hunting on large mammals. Detailed interviews with retired and active hunters were employed to describe hunting patterns. Impacts of hunting were assessed by comparing large-mammal abundance in adjacent sites differing in their vulnerability to hunting. In Kudremukha, at least 26 species of mammals were hunted, mostly with guns, at an estimated intensity of 216 hunter-days per month per village. In Nagaraholé, 6 of the 9 focal species of large mammals occurred at significantly lower densities at the heavily hunted site where enforcement capabilities were poorer. Our data underscore the importance of preservationist programs in the conservation of large mammals in a context of extensive local hunting.