Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

Analyzing temporal–spatial characteristics of drought events in the northern part of Cyprus

Drought in the northern part of Cyprus has become a recurrent phenomenon. In the last few decades, Cyprus has experienced significantly severe drought events occurring periodically, and this trend is now continuing. With rainfall distribution varying considerably across the region and frequent drought conditions, the water resources, agriculture, economy and the environment have been adversely affected. This study aims to investigate spatial–temporal characteristic of drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at multiple timescales (3, 6 and 12 months). Monthly time series of 36 years (1977–2013) rainfall data from nine weather stations are used to derive SPI values. Based on different drought categories, this study focuses on propagation of drought from one timescale to another and estimating critical rainfall values during moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions. The analysis revealed that there is a strong correlation among different timescales in detecting drought events. On average, 79 and 78% of 3-month timescale drought propagated into 6- and 12-month drought events, respectively, while 90% of 6-month timescale drought events propagated into 12-month drought events. The derived critical rainfall value for extreme droughts over a 12-month timescale was less than 255 mm/year in the town of Alsancak, while for Guzelyurt, a major citrus growing city, this figure was less than 135 mm/year. The results are validated through drought events detected at various regions of the Mediterranean basin and local flood occurrences during the wet periods and decline in water tables at drought seasons.     

Development of an efficient and sensitive analytical method for the determination of copper at trace levels by slotted quartz tube atomic absorption spectrometry after vortex-assisted dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction in biota and water samples using a novel ligand

This study describes the determination of trace levels of copper by slotted quartz tube atomic absorption spectrometry after dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction. A ligand synthesized from the reaction of salicylaldehyde and 1-naphthylamine was used to form coordinate copper complex prior to extraction. All parameters that influence the output of complex formation, extraction, and instrumental measurement were optimized to enhance the absorbance signal of copper. Under the optimum conditions, about 104-fold enhancement in sensitivity was recorded over the conventional flame atomic absorption spectrometer, corresponding to a 0.51 ng/mL detection limit. The percent relative standard deviation calculated for the lowest concentration (4.8%) indicated high precision for the experimental procedure. Accuracy and applicability of the optimum method were determined by performing spiked recovery tests on urine, lake water, and mineral water samples. Satisfactory recovery results were obtained between 82.2 and 106.3% at four different concentrations. Matrix matching method was also performed to increase the accuracy of quantification, and the percent recovery calculated for 175 ng/mL was 105.14%.     

Life cycle of PCBs and contamination of the environment and of food products from animal origin

This report gives a summary of the historic use, former management and current release of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Germany and assesses the impact of the life cycle of PCBs on the contamination of the environment and of food products of animal origin. In Germany 60,000 t of PCBs were used in transformers, capacitors or as hydraulic oils. The use of PCB oils in these “closed applications”, has been banned in Germany in 2000. Thirty to 50% of these PCBs were not appropriately managed. In West Germany, 24,000 t of PCBs were used in open applications, mainly as additive (plasticiser, flame retardant) in sealants and paints in buildings and other construction. The continued use in open applications has not been banned, and in 2013, an estimated more than 12,000 t of PCBs were still present in buildings and other constructions. These open PCB applications continuously emit PCBs into the environment with an estimated release of 7–12 t per year. This amount is in agreement with deposition measurements (estimated to 18 t) and emission estimates for Switzerland. The atmospheric PCB releases still have an relevant impact on vegetation and livestock feed. In addition, PCBs in open applications on farms are still a sources of contamination for farmed animals. Furthermore, the historic production, use, recycling and disposal of PCBs have contaminated soils along the lifecycle. This legacy of contaminated soils and contaminated feed, individually or collectively, can lead to exceedance of maximum levels in food products from animals. In beef and chicken, soil levels of 5 ng PCB-TEQ/kg and for chicken with high soil exposure even 2 ng PCB-TEQ/kg can lead to exceedance of EU limits in meat and eggs. Areas at and around industries having produced or used or managed PCBs, or facilities and areas where PCBs were disposed need to be assessed in respect to potential contamination of food-producing animals. For a large share of impacted land, management measures applicable on farm level might be sufficient to continue with food production. Open PCB applications need to be inventoried and better managed. Other persistent and toxic chemicals used as alternatives to PCBs, e.g. short chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs), should be assessed in the life cycle for exposure of food-producing animals and humans.     

Autonomous emergency braking systems adapted to snowy road conditions improve drivers' perceived safety and trust

Objective: This study investigated drivers' evaluation of a conventional autonomous emergency braking (AEB) system on high and reduced tire–road friction and compared these results to those of an AEB system adaptive to the reduced tire–road friction by earlier braking. Current automated systems such as the AEB do not adapt the vehicle control strategy to the road friction; for example, on snowy roads. Because winter precipitation is associated with a 19% increase in traffic crashes and a 13% increase in injuries compared to dry conditions, the potential of conventional AEB to prevent collisions could be significantly improved by including friction in the control algorithm. Whereas adaption is not legally required for a conventional AEB system, higher automated functions will have to adapt to the current tire–road friction because human drivers will not be required to monitor the driving environment at all times. For automated driving functions to be used, high levels of perceived safety and trust of occupants have to be reached with new systems. The application case of an AEB is used to investigate drivers' evaluation depending on the road condition in order to gain knowledge for the design of future driving functions.

Methods: In a driving simulator, the conventional, nonadaptive AEB was evaluated on dry roads with high friction (μ = 1) and on snowy roads with reduced friction (μ = 0.3). In addition, an AEB system adapted to road friction was designed for this study and compared with the conventional AEB on snowy roads with reduced friction. Ninety-six drivers (48 males, 48 females) assigned to 5 age groups (20–29, 30–39, 40–49, 50–59, and 60–75 years) drove with AEB in the simulator. The drivers observed and evaluated the AEB's braking actions in response to an imminent rear-end collision at an intersection.

Results: The results show that drivers' safety and trust in the conventional AEB were significantly lower on snowy roads, and the nonadaptive autonomous braking strategy was considered less appropriate on snowy roads compared to dry roads. As expected, the adaptive AEB braking strategy was considered more appropriate for snowy roads than the nonadaptive strategy. In conditions of reduced friction, drivers' subjective safety and trust were significantly improved when driving with the adaptive AEB compared to the conventional AEB. Women felt less safe than men when AEB was braking. Differences between age groups were not of statistical significance.

Conclusions: Drivers notice the adaptation of the autonomous braking strategy on snowy roads with reduced friction. On snowy roads, they feel safer and trust the adaptive system more than the nonadaptive automation.     

A case study for a cost-benefit-based,stepwise optimization of thermo-chemical WAS pre-treatment for anaerobic digestion

Waste-activated sludge (WAS) may be considered a resource generated by wastewater treatment plants and used for biogas-generation but it requires pre-treatment (PT) for enhanced biogas-yields and reduced WAS disposal costs. To date, a number of studies on the optimization of such PT focused on improved biogas yields but neglected inferred energy and resource consumption. Here, we aimed to identify the most promising thermo-chemical PT-strategy in terms of net energy output and cost-efficiency by optimizing PT temperature and the amount and sort of the alkaline reagent used. We compared methane-potentials and disposal costs of untreated and treated WAS and conducted an annual cost-benefit calculation. We defined 70 °C and 0.04 M NaOH as ideal PT-conditions being both, low-energy demanding and efficient. Applying these conditions, enhanced biogas-yields and improved dewaterability led to reduced electricity and disposal costs of 22 and 27%, respectively, resulting in savings of approx. 28% of the yearly WAS-related expenditures of a wastewater treatment plant. Despite multiple benefits in running costs, the implementation of WAS-PT was not recommendable in the presented case study due to high investment costs.

     

The effects of the Fukushima disaster on nuclear energy debates and policies: a two-step comparative examination

Under what conditions do critical events trigger large-scale public discussion and mobilisation, and can these lead to policy change? In a comparative study of nuclear energy policy after the Japanese Fukushima disaster in March 2011, a theory-development approach is adopted, mobilising data collected from national news agencies’ newswires, public surveys, legislation and parliamentary databases, and newspaper editorials in 12 established democracies between March 2011 and March 2013. The analysis suggests two main hypotheses that can guide future research: critical events are more likely to trigger policy change when intense (contentious) mobilisation from policy challengers aligns with the views of the general public, and is backed by major political allies; and critical events are more likely to trigger intense (contentious) mobilisation when policy challengers articulate their opposition around pre-existing policy debates on the issue and resort to pre-existing organisational and mobilisation resources.     

On the crucial importance of a small bird: The ecosystem services of the little auk (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alle alle</Emphasis>) population in Northwest Greenland in a long-term perspective

The little auk is the most numerous seabird in the North Atlantic and its most important breeding area is the eastern shores of the North Water polynya. Here, a population of an estimated 33 million pairs breeds in huge colonies and significantly shapes the ecosystem. Archaeological remains in the colonies document that the little auk has been harvested over millennia. Anthropological research discloses how the little auk has a role both as social engineer and as a significant resource for the Inughuit today. The hunting can be practiced without costly equipment, and has no gender and age discrimination in contrast to the dominant hunt for marine mammals. Little auks are ecological engineers in the sense that they transport vast amounts of nutrients from sea to land, where the nutrients are deposited as guano. Here, the fertilized vegetation provides important foraging opportunities for hares, geese, fox, reindeer, and the introduced muskox. We estimate that the relative muskox density is ten times higher within 1 km of little auk fertilized vegetation hotspots.     

Water management and aquatic ecosystem services of a tropical reservoir (Itaparica,São Francisco,Brazil)

Reservoirs have a wide variety of uses that have led to frequent conflicts over ecological conservation and contamination, especially as land management has intensified. Oligotrophication must be implemented in numerous tropical reservoirs that experience advanced eutrophication to maintain aquatic ecosystem functions. To quantify impacts on ecosystem functions and to develop an adaptive management policy, multiple studies have been conducted on the Itaparica Reservoir, São Francisco River, in the semi-arid north-eastern region of Brazil. Here, we add to that existing body of knowledge through investigating how nutrient accumulation is affected by water exchange between the main river flow and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Operational water-level fluctuations in the reservoir create large desiccated littoral areas that release high amounts of nutrients when they are rewetted. In particular, water-level variation promotes proliferation of Egeria densa, a noxious weed, thus elevating trophic levels of the Itaparica Reservoir and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Analysis with a P efficiency model determined 25 μg P L^?1 to be the critical concentration and further indicated that the critical load in both bodies of water have been exceeded. Moreover, intensive fish aquaculture using net cages has led to further overtaxing of the reservoir. We conclude that an effective ecological reservoir management policy must involve oligotrophication, harvesting of noxious water weeds for use as soil amendment in agriculture or biogas production, “blue” aquaculture, and limiting hydroelectric power production based on current water availability.