Key Features and Context‐Dependence of Fishery‐Induced Trophic Cascades

Abstract: Trophic cascades triggered by fishing have profound implications for marine ecosystems and the socioeconomic systems that depend on them. With the number of reported cases quickly growing, key features and commonalities have emerged. Fishery‐induced trophic cascades often display differential response times and nonlinear trajectories among trophic levels and can be accompanied by shifts in alternative states. Furthermore, their magnitude appears to be context dependent, varying as a function of species diversity, regional oceanography, local physical disturbance, habitat complexity, and the nature of the fishery itself. To conserve and manage exploited marine ecosystems, there is a pressing need for an improved understanding of the conditions that promote or inhibit the cascading consequences of fishing. Future research should investigate how the trophic effects of fishing interact with other human disturbances, identify strongly interacting species and ecosystem features that confer resilience to exploitation, determine ranges of predator depletion that elicit trophic cascades, pinpoint antecedents that signal ecosystem state shifts, and quantify variation in trophic rates across oceanographic conditions. This information will advance predictive models designed to forecast the trophic effects of fishing and will allow managers to better anticipate and avoid fishery‐induced trophic cascades.     

Designing Climate-Smart Conservation: Guidance and Case Studies

Abstract:  To be successful, conservation practitioners and resource managers must fully integrate the effects of climate change into all planning projects. Some conservation practitioners are beginning to develop, test, and implement new approaches that are designed to deal with climate change. We devised four basic tenets that are essential in climate-change adaptation for conservation: protect adequate and appropriate space, reduce nonclimate stresses, use adaptive management to implement and test climate-change adaptation strategies, and work to reduce the rate and extent of climate change to reduce overall risk. To illustrate how this approach applies in the real world, we explored case studies of coral reefs in the Florida Keys; mangrove forests in Fiji, Tanzania, and Cameroon; sea-level rise and sea turtles in the Caribbean; tigers in the Sundarbans of India; and national planning in Madagascar. Through implementation of these tenets conservation efforts in each of these regions can be made more robust in the face of climate change. Although these approaches require reconsidering some traditional approaches to conservation, this new paradigm is technologically, economically, and intellectually feasible.     

Effectiveness of Vegetation Surrogates for Parasitoid Wasps in Reserve Selection

Abstract:  Selecting suitable nature reserves is a continuing challenge in conservation, particularly for target groups that are time-consuming to survey, species rich, and extinction prone. One such group is the parasitoid Hymenoptera, which have been excluded from conservation planning. If basic characteristics of habitats or vegetation could be used as reliable surrogates of specific target taxa, this would greatly facilitate appropriate reserve selection. We identified a range of potential habitat indicators of the species richness of pimpline parasitoid communities (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae: Pimplinae, Diacritinae, Poemeniinae) and tested their efficiency at capturing the observed diversity in a group of small woodlands in the agricultural landscape of the Vale of York (United Kingdom). Eight of the 18 vegetation-based reserve-selection strategies were significantly better at parasitoid species inclusion than random selection of areas. The best strategy maximized richness of tree species over the entire reserve network through complementarity. This strategy omitted only 2–3 species more (out of 38 captured in the landscape as a whole) than selections derived from the parasitoid survey data. In general, strategies worked equally well at capturing species richness and rarity. Our results suggest that vegetation data as a surrogate for species richness could prove an informative tool in parasitoid conservation, but further work is needed to test how broadly applicable these indicators may be.     

Predicting the Spatial Distribution of a Seabird Community to Identify Priority Conservation Areas in the Timor Sea

Understanding spatial and temporal variability in the distribution of species is fundamental to the conservation of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. To support strategic decision making aimed at sustainable management of the oceans, such as the establishment of protected areas for marine wildlife, we identified areas predicted to support multispecies seabird aggregations in the Timor Sea. We developed species distribution models for 21 seabird species based on at‐sea survey observations from 2000–2013 and oceanographic variables (e.g., bathymetry). We applied 4 statistical modeling techniques and combined the results into an ensemble model with robust performance. The ensemble model predicted the probability of seabird occurrence in areas where few or no surveys had been conducted and demonstrated 3 areas of high seabird richness that varied little between seasons. These were located within 150 km of Adele Island, Ashmore Reef, and the Lacepede Islands, 3 of the largest aggregations of breeding seabirds in Australia. Although these breeding islands were foci for high species richness, model performance was greatest for 3 nonbreeding migratory species that would have been overlooked had regional monitoring been restricted to islands. Our results indicate many seabird hotspots in the Timor Sea occur outside existing reserves (e.g., Ashmore Reef Marine Reserve), where shipping, fisheries, and offshore development likely pose a threat to resident and migratory populations. Our results highlight the need to expand marine spatial planning efforts to ensure biodiversity assets are appropriately represented in marine reserves. Correspondingly, our results support the designation of at least 4 new important bird areas, for example, surrounding Adele Island and Ashmore Reef. Pronostico de la Distribución Espacial de una Comunidad de Aves Marinas para Identificar Áreas Prioritarias de Conservación en el Mar de Timor     

Conservation of the Northern Spotted Owl under the Northwest Forest Plan

Abstract:  Development of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) was motivated by concerns about the overharvest of late-seral forests and the effects of intensive forest management on the long-term viability of the Northern Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ). Following several years of intense political and legal debates, the final NWFP was approved in 1994. Even though the plan evolved with a broad ecosystem perspective, it remained anchored in the Spotted Owl reserve design proposed in 1990. Based on a criterion of stable or increasing populations, a decade later it remains unclear whether the enactment of the NWFP has improved the conservation status of Spotted Owls. The results of intensive monitoring of several Spotted Owl populations for over a decade suggest a continuing range-wide decline even though rates of timber harvest have declined dramatically on federal lands. The cause of the decline is difficult to determine because the research needed to establish cause and effect relations has not been done. One plausible hypothesis is that the owl's life history greatly constrains its rate of population growth even when habitat is no longer limiting. Since enactment of the NWFP, new threats have arisen, including the movement of Barred Owls ( S. varia ) into the range of the Spotted Owl, political pressure to increase levels of timber harvest, and recent changes to forest laws that eliminate the requirement to assess the viability of wildlife populations on U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service lands. At this time is appears that Spotted Owl conservation rests critically on continued implementation of the protections afforded by the NWFP and the U.S. Endangered Species Act.     

Modeling Prescribed Surface-Fire Regimes for Pinus strobus Conservation

Abstract:  We developed a simple model of   Pinus strobus L. stand dynamics to compare the impacts of different temporal arrangements of surface fires designed to reflect the application of fire as both an essential ecosystem process (natural fire) and as an efficient means of producing specific habitat features or other values (optimal fire). We used a stochastic simulation model of fire processes to estimate the mean fire-return interval that would maximize stand structural diversity. We investigated trade-offs between structural diversity and temporal population stability associated with changes in the fire interval and used a deterministic version of the model to explore the effects of scheduling fires at fixed intervals. In stochastic simulations, maximum structural diversity occurred at intermediate levels of disturbance (40-year mean fire interval). When fires were scheduled at fixed intervals, a longer, 100-year return interval maximized diversity. Mean fire-return interval was a mitigating factor in the diversity-stability relationship, which changed from positive to negative as the fire interval was reduced progressively from 250 to 5 years. As an alternative to scheduling fires at specified mean intervals, we developed a goal-programming model (a form of linear programming model) and used it to identify an optimal fire schedule for achieving habitat and visual-quality objectives. In comparison with the 40-year stochastic mean fire interval, which maximized structural diversity, the optimal schedule produced comparable levels of both diversity and fire frequency. Our results show how simulation and goal-programming models can be used to evaluate prescribed fire-scheduling alternatives and to explore the comparative advantages of natural and optimal fire-management approaches.     

Changes in Avian and Plant Communities of Aspen Woodlands over 12 Years after Livestock Removal in the Northwestern Great Basin

Abstract: Riparian and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) woodlands are centers of avian abundance and diversity in the western United States, but they have been affected adversely by land use practices, particularly livestock grazing. In 1990, cattle were removed from a 112,500‐ha national wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon. Thereafter, we monitored changes in vegetation and bird abundance in years 1–3 (phase 1) and 10–12 (phase 2) in 17 riparian and 9 snow‐pocket aspen plots. On each 1.5‐ha plot, we sampled vegetation in 6 transects. Three times during each breeding season, observers recorded all birds 50 m to each side of the plot's 150‐m centerline for 25 minutes. We analyzed data with multivariate analysis of variance and paired t tests with p values adjusted for multiple comparisons. In both periods, riparian and snow‐pocket aspen produced extensive regeneration of new shoots ( stems/ha and 7079 stems/ha, respectively). By phase 2, a 64% increase in medium‐diameter trees in riparian stands indicated successful recruitment into the overstory, but this pattern was not seen in snow‐pocket stands, where the density of trees was over 2 times greater. By phase 2 in riparian and snow‐pocket stands, native forb cover had increased by 68% and 57%, respectively, mesic shrub cover had increased by 29% and 58%, and sagebrush cover had decreased by 24% and 31%. Total avian abundance increased by 33% and 39% in riparian and snow‐pocket aspen, respectively, ground or understory nesters increased by 133% and 67% and overstory nesters increased by 34% and 33%. Similarly, ground or understory foragers increased by 25% and 32%, aerial foragers by 55% and 57%, and overstory foragers by 66% and 43%. We interpreted the substantial regeneration of aspen shoots, increased densities of riparian forbs and shrubs, and increased avian abundances as a multitrophic‐level response to the total removal of livestock and as substantial movement toward recovery of biological integrity.