Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Exploring the risks and benefits of flexibility in biodiversity offset location in a case study of migratory shorebirds

Biodiversity offsets aim to counterbalance the residual impacts of development on species and ecosystems. Guidance documents explicitly recommend that biodiversity offset actions be located close to the location of impact because of higher potential for similar ecological conditions, but allowing greater spatial flexibility has been proposed. We examined the circumstances under which offsets distant from the impact location could be more likely to achieve no net loss or provide better ecological outcomes than offsets close to the impact area. We applied a graphical model for migratory shorebirds in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway as a case study to explore the problems that arise when incorporating spatial flexibility into offset planning. Spatially flexible offsets may alleviate impacts more effectively than local offsets; however, the risks involved can be substantial. For our case study, there were inadequate data to make robust conclusions about the effectiveness and equivalence of distant habitat-based offsets for migratory shorebirds. Decisions around offset placement should be driven by the potential to achieve equivalent ecological outcomes; however, when considering more distant offsets, there is a need to evaluate the likely increased risks alongside the potential benefits. Although spatially flexible offsets have the potential to provide more cost-effective biodiversity outcomes and more cobenefits, our case study showed the difficulty of demonstrating these benefits in practice and the potential risks that need to be considered to ensure effective offset placement.     

Recycling food and agriculture by-products to mitigate climate change: a review

Food loss and waste is a major issue affecting food security, environmental pollution, producer profitability, consumer prices, and climate change. About 1.3 billion tons of food products are yearly lost globally, with China producing approximately 20 million tons of soybean dregs annually. Here, we review food and agricultural byproducts with emphasis on the strategies to convert this waste into valuable materials. Byproducts can be used for animal and plant nutrition, biogas production, food, extraction of oils and bioactive substances, and production of vinegar, wine, edible coatings and organic fertilizers. For instance, bioactive compounds represent approximately 8–20% of apple pomace, 5–17% of orange peel, 10–25% of grape seeds, 3–15% of pomegranate peel, and 2–13% of date palm seeds. Similarly, the pharmaceutical industry uses approximately 6.5% of the total output of gelatin derived from fish bones and animal skin. Animals fed with pomegranate peel and olive pomace improved the concentration of deoxyribonucleic acid and protein, the litter size, the milk yield, and nest characteristics. Biogas production amounts to 57.1% using soybean residue, 53.7% using papaya peel, and 49.1% using sugarcane bagasse.

     

Inexpensive substrate sampler for macroinvertebrates

Assessment of aquatic macroinvertebrates is a critical component of many watershed monitoring programs and passive samplers are often used to collect long-term site data, especially in environments where active sampling is not possible. However, standard passive samplers can be expensive and lost in extreme conditions. We developed a sampler using plastic soda bottles (PSB) filled with river rock and compared its effectiveness with standard Hester-Dendy samplers in both lotic and lentic environments. Abundance, taxa richness, and macroinvertebrate composition showed no significant differences between sampler types in either habitat type. PSB samplers, which can be constructed for less than one dollar each, collected the same number of organisms and represented the same diversity as Hester-Dendy devices that cost around $38 each. In studies where funds are limited, PSB samplers appear to be suitable for passive monitoring.     

Sulfonated graphene nanomaterials for membrane antifouling,pollutant removal,and production of chemicals from biomass: a review

Water pollution and the unsustainable use of fossil fuel derivatives require advanced catalytic methods to clean waters and to produce fine chemicals from modern biomass. Classical homogeneous catalysts such as sulfuric, phosphoric, and hydrochloric acid are highly corrosive and non-recyclable, whereas heterogeneous catalysts appear promising for lignocellulosic waste depolymerization, pollutant degradation, and membrane antifouling. Here, we review the use of sulfonated graphene and sulfonated graphene oxide nanomaterials for improving membranes, pollutant adsorption and degradation, depolymerization of lignocellulosic waste, liquefaction of biomass, and production of fine chemicals. We also discuss the economy of oil production from biomass. Sulfonated graphene and sulfonated graphene oxide display an unusual large theoretical specific surface area of 2630 m²/g, allowing the reactants to easily enter the internal surface of graphene nanosheets and to reach active acid sites. Sulfonated graphene oxide is hydrophobic and has hydrophilic groups, such as hydroxyl, carboxyl, and epoxy, thus creating cavities on the graphene nanosheet’s surface. The adsorption capacity approached 2.3–2.4 mmol per gram for naphthalene and 1-naphthol. Concerning membranes, we observe an improvement of hydrophilicity, salt rejection, water flux, antifouling properties, and pollutant removal. The nanomaterials can be reused several times without losing catalytic activity due to the high stability originating from the stable carbon–sulfur bond between graphene and the sulfonic group.

     

Materials,fuels, upgrading,economy, and life cycle assessment of the pyrolysis of algal and lignocellulosic biomass: a review

Climate change issues are calling for advanced methods to produce materials and fuels in a carbon–neutral and circular way. For instance, biomass pyrolysis has been intensely investigated during the last years. Here we review the pyrolysis of algal and lignocellulosic biomass with focus on pyrolysis products and mechanisms, oil upgrading, combining pyrolysis and anaerobic digestion, economy, and life cycle assessment. Products include oil, gas, and biochar. Upgrading techniques comprise hot vapor filtration, solvent addition, emulsification, esterification and transesterification, hydrotreatment, steam reforming, and the use of supercritical fluids. We examined the economic viability in terms of profitability, internal rate of return, return on investment, carbon removal service, product pricing, and net present value. We also reviewed 20 recent studies of life cycle assessment. We found that the pyrolysis method highly influenced product yield, ranging from 9.07 to 40.59% for oil, from 10.1 to 41.25% for biochar, and from 11.93 to 28.16% for syngas. Feedstock type, pyrolytic temperature, heating rate, and reaction retention time were the main factors controlling the distribution of pyrolysis products. Pyrolysis mechanisms include bond breaking, cracking, polymerization and re-polymerization, and fragmentation. Biochar from residual forestry could sequester 2.74 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per ton biochar when applied to the soil and has thus the potential to remove 0.2–2.75 gigatons of atmospheric carbon dioxide annually. The generation of biochar and bio-oil from the pyrolysis process is estimated to be economically feasible.

     

Effects of meteorology on ground-level ozone (GLO) concentrations and identifying the hot spots having significantly higher GLO concentration in a semi-urban area

The present study aims to analyse the influences of five meteorological parameters (temperature, wind speed, barometric pressure, rainfall, and solar radiations) on ground-level ozone (GLO) concentrations over the region of Ranchi Municipal Corporation (Jharkhand, India). The diurnal variation of GLO concentration and the meteorological parameters were analysed in each month to understand the associations. The results indicated that the correlation coefficients of GLO concentration with SR, AT, and DPT are found to be positive in each month and also statistically significant. But, the association between WS and GLO concentration was not uniform between the study days. Furthermore, the study also demonstrates an approach for identifying the hot spots that are having the higher level of GLO concentration. The hot spot maps were produced for each month to understand the shifting of the locations of hot spot locations. The results reveal that the hot spot locations are changes frequently in each case. Since the hot spot analysis was conducted with limited data, the presented hot spots are indicative and dependent on the meteorological conditions of the specific period and cannot be considered as a robust epidemiological study.     

Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction (~?25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 °C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.     

Energy–growth nexus revisited: an empirical application on transition countries

This study investigates the energy–growth nexus for transition countries analysing Granger causality between GDP growth per capita and energy use per capita. For this purpose, 17 countries located at Central and Eastern Europe and Caucasian region are chosen and a panel dataset consisting of these countries for the available period of 1990–2011 is studied. In the study, Granger causality is investigated using bootstrapped panel causality approach proposed by Konya (Econ Modell 23(6):978–992, 2006). The approach gives consistent results in case of cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity of slope coefficients between countries. Causality is examined for two scenarios: one with a trend and one without a trend. The results reveal that, in general, there is no causality running between energy consumption and economic growth, yet there is causality running from energy consumption to economic growth for some countries and sign of the relationship is always negative. Therefore, increases in energy consumption harm economic growth.     

Minimizing opportunity costs to aquatic connectivity restoration while controlling an invasive species

Controlling invasive species is critical for conservation but can have unintended consequences for native species and divert resources away from other efforts. This dilemma occurs on a grand scale in the North American Great Lakes, where dams and culverts block tributary access to habitat of desirable fish species and are a lynchpin of long‐standing efforts to limit ecological damage inflicted by the invasive, parasitic sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Habitat restoration and sea‐lamprey control create conflicting goals for managing aging infrastructure. We used optimization to minimize opportunity costs of habitat gains for 37 desirable migratory fishes that arose from restricting sea lamprey access (0–25% increase) when selecting barriers for removal under a limited budget (US$1–105 million). Imposing limits on sea lamprey habitat reduced gains in tributary access for desirable species by 15–50% relative to an unconstrained scenario. Additional investment to offset the effect of limiting sea‐lamprey access resulted in high opportunity costs for 30 of 37 species (e.g., an additional US$20–80 million for lake sturgeon [Acipenser fulvescens]) and often required ≥5% increase in sea‐lamprey access to identify barrier‐removal solutions adhering to the budget and limiting access. Narrowly distributed species exhibited the highest opportunity costs but benefited more at less cost when small increases in sea‐lamprey access were allowed. Our results illustrate the value of optimization in limiting opportunity costs when balancing invasion control against restoration benefits for diverse desirable species. Such trade‐off analyses are essential to the restoration of connectivity within fragmented rivers without unleashing invaders.