Fast,cheap, and imperfect? US public opinion about solar geoengineering

ABSTRACT

Solar geoengineering, which seeks to cool the planet by reflecting a small fraction of sunlight back into space, has drawn the attention of scientists and policymakers as climate change remains unabated. Unlike mitigation, solar geoengineering could quickly and cheaply lower global temperatures. It is also imperfect. Its environmental impacts remain unpredictable, and its low cost and immediate effects may result in ‘moral hazard,’ potentially crowding out costly mitigation efforts. There is little understanding about how the public will respond to such tradeoffs. To address this, a 1000-subject nationally representative poll focused on solar geoengineering was conducted as part of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) of the US electorate in October–November 2016. The importance that individuals place on solar geoengineering’s speed and cost predicts their support for it, but there is little to no relationship between their concerns about its shortcomings and support for its research and use. Acquiescence bias appears to be an important factor for attitudes around solar geoengineering and moral hazard.     

Phosphorus and sulfur in a tropical soil and their effects on growth and selenium accumulation in Leucaena leucocephala (Lam.) de Wit

Selenium (Se) is an essential metalloid element for mammals. Nonetheless, both deficiency and excess of Se in the environment are associated with several diseases in animals and humans. Here, we investigated the interaction of Se, supplied as selenate (Se⁺⁶) and selenite (Se⁺⁴), with phosphorus (P) and sulfur (S) in a weathered tropical soil and their effects on growth and Se accumulation in Leucaena leucocephala (Lam.) de Wit. The P-Se interaction effects on L. leucocephala growth differed between the Se forms (selenate and selenite) supplied in the soil. Selenate was prejudicial to plants grown in the soil with low P dose, while selenite was harmful to plants grown in soil with high P dose. The decreasing soil S dose increased the toxic effect of Se in L. leucocephala plants. Se tissue concentration and total Se accumulation in L. leucocephala shoot were higher with selenate supply in the soil when compared with selenite. Therefore, selenite proved to be less phytoavailable in the weathered tropical soil and, at the same time, more toxic to L. leucocephala plants than selenate. Thus, it is expected that L. leucocephala plants are more efficient to phytoextract and accumulate Se as selenate than Se as selenite from weathered tropical soils, for either strategy of phytoremediation (decontamination of Se-polluted soils) or purposes of biofortification for animal feed (fertilization of Se-poor soils).

     

Complex and nonlinear climate-driven changes in freshwater insect communities over 42 years

The ongoing biodiversity crisis becomes evident in the widely observed decline in abundance and diversity of species, profound changes in community structure, and shifts in species’ phenology. Insects are among the most affected groups, with documented decreases in abundance up to 76% in the last 25–30 years in some terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the underlying drivers is a major obstacle as most ecosystems are affected by multiple stressors simultaneously and in situ measurements of environmental variables are often missing. In our study, we investigated a headwater stream belonging to the most common stream type in Germany located in a nature reserve with no major anthropogenic impacts except climate change. We used the most comprehensive quantitative long-term data set on aquatic insects available, which includes weekly measurements of species-level insect abundance, daily water temperature and stream discharge as well as measurements of additional physicochemical variables for a 42-year period (1969–2010). Overall, water temperature increased by 1.88 °C and discharge patterns changed significantly. These changes were accompanied by an 81.6% decline in insect abundance, but an increase in richness (+8.5%), Shannon diversity (+22.7%), evenness (+22.4%), and interannual turnover (+34%). Moreover, the community's trophic structure and phenology changed: the duration of emergence increased by 15.2 days, whereas the peak of emergence moved 13.4 days earlier. Additionally, we observed short-term fluctuations (<5 years) in almost all metrics as well as complex and nonlinear responses of the community toward climate change that would have been missed by simply using snapshot data or shorter time series. Our results indicate that climate change has already altered biotic communities severely even in protected areas, where no other interacting stressors (pollution, habitat fragmentation, etc.) are present. This is a striking example of the scientific value of comprehensive long-term data in capturing the complex responses of communities toward climate change.     

Approaching the upper boundary of driver-response relationships: identifying factors using a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning

● A novel framework integrating quantile regression with machine learning is proposed. ● It aims to identify factors driving observations to upper boundary of relationship. ● Increasing N:P and TN concentration help fulfill the effect of TP on CHL. ● Wetter and warmer decrease potential and increase eutrophication control difficulty. ● The framework advances applications of quantile regression and machine learning. The identification of factors that may be forcing ecological observations to approach the upper boundary provides insight into potential mechanisms affecting driver-response relationships, and can help inform ecosystem management, but has rarely been explored. In this study, we propose a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning. In the first stage of the framework, we estimate the upper boundary of a driver-response relationship using quantile regression. Next, we calculate “potentials” of the response variable depending on the driver, which are defined as vertical distances from the estimated upper boundary of the relationship to observations in the driver-response variable scatter plot. Finally, we identify key factors impacting the potential using a machine learning model. We illustrate the necessary steps to implement the framework using the total phosphorus (TP)-Chlorophyll a (CHL) relationship in lakes across the continental US. We found that the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio (N׃P), annual average precipitation, total nitrogen (TN), and summer average air temperature were key factors impacting the potential of CHL depending on TP. We further revealed important implications of our findings for lake eutrophication management. The important role of N׃P and TN on the potential highlights the co-limitation of phosphorus and nitrogen and indicates the need for dual nutrient criteria. Future wetter and/or warmer climate scenarios can decrease the potential which may reduce the efficacy of lake eutrophication management. The novel framework advances the application of quantile regression to identify factors driving observations to approach the upper boundary of driver-response relationships.     

The influence of collection facility attributes on household collection rates of electronic waste: The case of televisions and computer monitors

In the US, household electronic waste collected for recycling is primarily by voluntary drop-off at designated collection facilities. This study examines the influence of specific collection facility attributes (recycling fees charged, number of days open, and driving distance) on the household collection rate of e-waste in the US state of Maine. Data were collected for household computer monitor and television collection for 92 municipal waste transfer facilities representing 30% of the state's population for one year. Results suggest that recycling fees are negatively correlated with the number of televisions and computer monitors collected; furthermore, the more frequently facilities were open, the more televisions and computer monitors were collected per capita. The distance from the facility had no correlation, which prompted an analysis of whether the existence of a curbside collection system in the municipality was influential. Results show a negative correlation between computer monitor and television collection and a municipality having recycling (but not e-waste) curbside collection. Based on the results of this study, policymakers may be able to increase the collection rate of household e-waste by eliminating or lowering recycling fees, expanding collection days and hours to increase convenience, and/or considering curbside collection of e-waste.     

Occurrence of PCBs in raw and finished drinking water at seven public water systems along the Hudson River

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in raw and finished drinking water at seven Public Water Systems (PWSs) along the Hudson River as part of a baseline monitoring program prior to the extensive sediment dredging of the Upper Hudson River. Water samples were either analyzed using an Aroclor method (based on USEPA Method 508) or a congener method (Modified Green Bay Mass Balance Method). Using the congener-based method, raw water concentrations ranged from <9.3 to 164.3 ng/L and finished water concentrations ranged from <9.3 to 186.6 ng/L. Using the Aroclor method, finished water concentrations ranged from <5.0 to 200.9 ng/L. Most finished water samples above 73.0 ng/L were from a PWS with wells drilled near the river. Excluding the well data, total PCB concentrations in raw water at systems in the Upper River were similar to concentrations at systems in the Lower River, though the congener patterns differed. Paired comparison of total PCB concentrations using the two analytical methods showed good agreement, although raw water showed a different relationship than finished water.     

CHO cell cytotoxicity and genotoxicity analyses of disinfection by-products: An updated review

The disinfection of drinking water is an important public health service that generates high quality, safe and palatable tap water. The disinfection of drinking water to reduce waterborne disease was an outstanding public health achievement of the 20th century. An unintended consequence is the reaction of disinfectants with natural organic matter, anthropogenic contaminants and bromide/iodide to form disinfection by-products (DBPs). A large number of DBPs are cytotoxic, neurotoxic, mutagenic, genotoxic, carcinogenic and teratogenic. Epidemiological studies demonstrated low but significant associations between disinfected drinking water and adverse health effects. The distribution of DBPs in disinfected waters has been well defined by advances in high precision analytical chemistry. Progress in the analytical biology and toxicology of DBPs has been forthcoming. The objective of this review was to provide a detailed presentation of the methodology for the quantitative, comparative analyses on the induction of cytotoxicity and genotoxicity of 103 DBPs using an identical analytical biological platform and endpoints. A single Chinese hamster ovary cell line was employed in the assays. The data presented are derived from papers published in the literature as well as additional new data and represent the largest direct quantitative comparison on the toxic potency of both regulated and emerging DBPs. These data may form the foundation of novel research to define the major forcing agents of DBP-mediated toxicity in disinfected water and may play an important role in achieving the goal of making safe drinking water better.     

The silvering process of European eel (Anguilla anguilla) influences PAH metabolite concentrations in bile fluid: consequences for monitoring

The stock of the catadromous European eel (Anguilla anguilla L.) continues to decline and there is growing evidence that poor health status due to contaminants might be a key element in this decrease. Organic contaminants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) belong to the major threats to yellow eel in their growth habitat and their metabolites are detectable in the bile. Starting the silvering process eels undergo physiological and morphological changes including cessation of feeding and downstream migration back to their spawning grounds. Reduced feed intake results in a diminishment of bile production and induces accumulation of e.g. PAH-metabolites in bile. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to demonstrate the impact of silvering on biliary PAH metabolite concentrations and to utilize normalization procedures to overcome silvering related accumulation effects of PAH-metabolites in eel bile. We investigated the hydroxyl-metabolites of pyrene (1-OH Pyr) and phenantrene (1-OH Phen) in the bile of different maturation stages of eels (silvering index I-V) from nine German rivers. We detected increasing absolute PAH metabolite levels in bile during the silvering process. The highest rise could be observed at the transition from pre migration stage III to the migrating stage IV, suggesting the onset of cessation of feeding at this stage. A cessation bias in PAH metabolite measurement could be diminished by normalization of absolute values against bile pigments (A₃₈₀, biliverdin). In conclusion, we demonstrated the impact of silvering on PAH metabolite concentrations in eel bile and present suitable normalization procedures to overcome silvering related accumulation effects. Thus, for a future eel monitoring we recommend (1) to regularly monitor PAH metabolites in bile, (2) to determine silvering index of eel and (3) to normalize PAH metabolite values in bile based on maturation/silvering stages. The knowledge of the silvering stage is mandatory for an unbiased evaluation of PAH contamination of European eel towards an international harmonized eel monitoring program.     

A phenomenological approach shows a high coherence of warming patterns in dimictic aquatic systems across latitude

To predict the coherence in local responses to large-scale climatic forcing among aquatic systems, we developed a generalized approach to compare long-term data of dimictic water bodies based on phenomenologically defined hydrographic events. These climate-sensitive phases (inverse stratification, spring overturn, early thermal stratification, summer stagnation) were classified in a dual code (cold/warm) based on threshold temperatures. Accounting for a latitudinal gradient in seasonal timing of phases derived from gradients in cumulative irradiation (2.2?days per degree latitude), we found a high spatial and temporal coherence in warm–cold patterns for six lakes (84?%) and the Baltic Sea (78?%), even when using the same thresholds for all sites. Similarity to CW-codes for the North Sea still was up to 72?%. The approach allows prediction of phase-specific warming trends and resulting instantaneous or time-delayed ecological responses. Exemplarily, we show that warming during early thermal stratification controls food-web-mediated effects on key species during summer.