A two-stage ensemble Kalman filter for smooth data assimilation

The ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) applied to a simple fire propagation model by a nonlinear convection-diffusion-reaction partial differential equation breaks down because the EnKF creates nonphysical ensemble members with large gradients. A modification of the EnKF is proposed by adding a regularization term that penalizes large gradients. The method is implemented by applying the EnKF formulas twice, with the regularization term as another observation. The regularization step is also interpreted as a shrinkage of the prior distribution. Numerical results are given to illustrate success of the new method.     

Retrospective exposure assessment in a chemical research and development facility

The objective of this exposure assessment was to reconstruct cumulative historical exposures for workers who have been exposed to multiple chemicals and chemical groups to better understand a cluster of brain cancers within a research and development lab. Chemicals of interest, including acrylates, bis-chloromethyl ether (BCME), chloromethyl methyl ether (CMME), isothiazolones and nitrosoamines, were selected on the basis of the plausibility of penetrating the blood-brain barrier and the uniqueness of the chemical's biological activity.In a complicated exposure setting such as a chemical R&D facility, multiple exposure estimation methods were needed. First, similarly exposure groups (SEGs) were created for these materials based on department group, time period of the department's existence and function associated with job titles. A probabilistic framework for assessing exposures was developed using Bayesian analysis of historical monitoring data, mathematical exposure modeling and professional judgments of current and former industrial hygienists at the facility were used to reconstruct the exposure history for acrylates, BCME and CMME for each SEG over the time period of interest. Since sufficient measurement data for isothiazolones and nitrosoamines were not available, the exposure histories for each SEG for these chemicals were estimated. This was done using objective formaldehyde levels and subjective employee interviews. The interviews assessed workplace determinants of exposure as distinct surrogates for estimating inhalation and dermal exposures. The exposure assessments by these methods were compared against each other to estimate the potential for exposure misclassification. A job exposure matrix (JEM) was constructed that contained the exposures obtained from above multiple approaches for each of these chemical groups for each SEG for each year of interest. The combination of methods used in this work is a unique and potentially helpful framework that can be used in analogous workplace settings involving multiple exposures with incomplete objective measurement information.     

Improvement in HSPF's Low‐Flow Predictions by Implementation of a Power Law Groundwater Storage‐Discharge Relationship

We have enhanced the ability of a widely used watershed model, Hydrologic Simulation Program — FORTRAN (HSPF), to predict low flows by reconfiguring the algorithm that simulates groundwater discharge. During dry weather periods, flow in most streams consists primarily of base flow, that is, groundwater discharged from underlying aquifers. In this study, HSPF's groundwater storage‐discharge relationship is changed from a linear to a more general nonlinear relationship which takes the form of a power law. The nonlinear algorithm is capable of simulating streamflow recession curves that have been found in some studies to better match observed dry weather hydrographs. The altered version of HSPF is implemented in the Chesapeake Bay Program's Phase 5 Model, an HSPF‐based model that simulates nutrient and sediment loads to the Chesapeake Bay, and is tested in the upper Potomac River basin, a 29,950 km² drainage area that is part of the Bay watershed. The nonlinear relationship improved median Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiencies for log daily flows at the model's 45 calibration points. Mean absolute percent error on low‐flow days dropped in five major Potomac River tributaries by up to 12 percentage points, and in the Potomac River itself by four percentage points, where low‐flow days were defined as days when observed flows were in the lowest 5th percentile range. Percent bias on low‐flow days improved by eight percentage points in the Potomac River, from ?11 to ?3%.     

Serum concentrations of perfluorooctanesulfonate and other fluorochemicals in an elderly population from Seattle, Washington

Perfluorooctanesulfonyl fluoride (POSF, C₈F₁₇SO₂F) related-materials have been used as surfactants, paper and packaging treatments, and surface (e.g., carpet, textile, upholstery) protectants. A metabolite, perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS, C₈F₁₇SO₃⁻), has been identified in the serum and liver of non-occupationally exposed humans and wildlife. Because of its persistence, an important question was whether elderly humans might have higher PFOS concentrations. From a prospective study designed to examine cognitive function in the Seattle (WA) metropolitan area, blood samples were collected from 238 dementia-free subjects (ages 65–96). High-pressure liquid chromatography-electrospray tandem mass spectrometry determined seven fluorochemicals: PFOS; N-ethyl perfluorooctanesulfonamidoacetate; N-methyl perfluorooctanesulfonamidoacetate; perfluorooctanesulfonamidoacetate; perfluorooctanesulfonamide; perfluorooctanoate; and perfluorohexanesulfonate. Serum PFOS concentrations ranged from less than the lower limit of quantitation (3.4 ppb) to 175.0 ppb (geometric mean 31.0 ppb; 95% CI 28.8–33.4). An estimate of the 95% tolerance limit was 84.1 ppb (upper 95% confidence limit 104.0 ppb). Serum PFOS concentrations were slightly lower among the most elderly. There were no significant differences by sex or years residence in Seattle. The distributions of the other fluorochemicals were approximately an order of magnitude lower. Similar to other reported findings of younger adults, the geometric mean serum PFOS concentration in non-occupational adult populations likely approximates 30–40 ppb with 95% of the population’s serum PFOS concentrations below 100 ppb.     

Migration path annotation: cross-continental study of migration-flight response to environmental conditions

Understanding the movements of animals is pivotal for understanding their ecology and predicting their survival in the face of rapid global changes to climate, land use, and habitats, thus facilitating more effective habitat management. Migration by flying animals is an extreme form of movement that may be especially influenced by weather. With satellite telemetry studies, and the growing availability of information about the Earth's weather and land surface conditions, many data are collected that can advance our understanding about the mechanisms that shape migrations. We present the track annotation approach for movement data analysis using information about weather from the North American Reanalysis data set, a publicly available, regional, high-resolution model-observation hybrid product, and about topography, from a publicly available high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). As a case study, we present the analysis of the response to environmental conditions in three contrasting populations of Turkey Vultures (Cathartes aura) across North America, tracked with a three-dimensional GPS-based sensor. Two populations in the east and west coasts of the United States responded similarly to weather, indicating use of both slope and thermal soaring. Continental-interior, "Plains populations," exhibited a different migratory pattern primarily indicative of thermal soaring. These differences help us understand the constraints and behaviors of soaring migrants. The track annotation approach allowed large-scale comparative study of movement in an important migratory species, and will enable similar studies at local to global scales.     

Comparisons of EPA Rollback,Empirical/Kinetic,and Physicochemical Oxidant Prediction Relationships in the San Francisco Bay Area

This paper describes, compares and evaluates selected Oxidant Prediction Relationships {OPRs) in terms of projections of hydrocarbon emission reductions required for attainment of the former 0.08 ppm standard and the new 0.12 ppm standard in the San Francisco Bay Area in 1985. The OPRs analyzed are the LIRAQ physicochemical model, EPA’s Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach (EKMA), linear and Appendix J rollback, and an empirical OPR based on local observations.

LIRAQ simulations indicated that to achieve the 0.12 ppm ozone standard, 1985 hydrocarbon emissions must be reduced by 27% from projected levels. The equivalent reductions derived from simple linear rollback, linear rollback with 0.04 ppm background, and the local empirical OPR were 32%, 45% and 37%, respectively. The LIRAQ simulations also showed that reduction of both hydrocarbon and NO_x emissions is less effective than reduction of hydrocarbons only. The attempt to apply EKMA failed because the Bay Area’s low hydrocarbon/NO_x ratios and observed ozone levels are not consistent with the standard EKMA isopleth curves.

For planning, proper OPR selection is important because the wide range in the projections of various OPRs translates into a correspondingly wide range in control costs. Physicochemical OPRs are preferred because they are verifiable; they account for complex topography, meteorology, and source distributions; and because they can treat a variety of control strategies. In the future, the uncertainties associated with the projections can be resolved by assessing trends in air quality on a regular basis and by upgrading and reapplying the prediction methodologies as new information becomes available.     

Quantitative determination of 1 -hydroxypyrene in bovine urine samples using high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence and mass spectrometric detection

An analytical method was developed to determine quantitatively 1-hydroxypyrene (OHP) in bovine urine samples. The procedure includes an enzymatic hydrolysis to cleave the conjugated metabolite, an enrichment step using solid phase extraction with a non-polar rinse step and elution with dichloromethane. A final clean-up on silicagel was performed before high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis and fluorescence detection. Alternatively, HPLC and electrospray ionization in the negative ion mode applying selective ion monitoring acquisition revealed to be a highly sensitive detection method allowing the quantitation of low pg of OHP in the urine samples. The method was successfully applied to the determination of OHP in bovine urine samples from animals living in urban and rural areas. Urine concentrations of OHP were significantly higher (median 8.6 microg l(-1)) of bovines living close to a highway.     

An assessment of the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment in Europe

ABSTRACT

The agriculture sector is the principal source of income for around 20% of the EU-26 population, which live in predominantly rural regions that would be devastated without its contribution. Moreover, the combined agricultural and food sector forms an important part of the EU economy, accounting for 15 million jobs (8.3% of total employment) and 4.4% of GDP. The 12 million active farmers across Europe today, have an average farm size of about 15 ha, and are expected to meet the needs of 500 million Europeans. In addition, they are also expected to promote a sustainable and balanced development of their land, also in areas where production conditions are difficult. Yet, despite the relevance of the sector, the use of land for agriculture purposes is not very sustainable. Among other issues, there is a serious problem in respect of the abandonment of agricultural land. Based on the perceived need for research on this topic, the aim of this paper is to examine the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment, outlining its social, economic and environmental impacts, as well as the implications for territorial integration.