Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Beyond demographic identities and motivation to learn: The effect of organizational identification on diversity training outcomes

There is a pressing need for better explanations of diversity training effectiveness so that organizations can administer training programs that facilitate positive intergroup interactions. In this paper, we consider the unique predictive effect of organizational identification on diversity training outcomes beyond the effects of the traditional predictors of demographic-based identities and motivation to learn across two samples of employees involved in diversity-related training at their employing organizations. Organizational identification predicted unique variance in voluntary participation in diversity training, diversity training-related knowledge application, motivation to transfer diversity training, and diversity training-related organizational citizenship behavior intentions. Research and practitioner implications are discussed based on our findings.     

From Food Justice to a Tool of the Status Quo: Three Sub-movements Within Local Food

The local food movement has been touted by some as a profoundly effective way to make our food system become more healthy, just, and sustainable. Others have criticized the movement as being less a challenge to the status quo and more an easily co-opted support offering just another set of choices for affluent consumers. In this paper, we analyze three distinct sub-movements within the local food movement, the individual-focused sub-movement, the systems-focused sub-movement, and the community-focused sub-movement. These movements can be combined within any particular campaign or within the goals of any particular organization or individual activist, but they are nevertheless quite different from each other, and come out of different conceptualizations of what food, people, and locality are. We argue that most of the critiques leveled against local food are actually directed against the individual-focused sub-movement, which is most compatible with the current industrial food system, and perhaps not surprisingly receives the most mainstream attention. Further, we argue that while each movement has its own strengths and weaknesses, it is the community-focused sub-movement that has the most potential to radically transform the global food system.     

Liberalism and the Two Directions of the Local Food Movement

The local food movement is, increasingly, becoming a part of the modern American landscape. However, while it appears that the local food movement is gaining momentum, one could question whether or not this trend is, in fact, politically and socially sustainable. Is local food just another trend that will fade away or is it here to stay? One way to begin addressing this question is to ascertain whether or not it is compatible with liberalism, a set of influential political theories that have shaped and continue to shape our political system. In this paper, I argue that the local food movement is partially compatible with forms of liberalism that accept the limited application of the principle of neutrality, as there are two directions or trends within local food: (1) The systems based direction and (2) the individual focused direction. The systems based direction is not compatible while the individual focused movement is largely compatible with liberalism. I go on to argue that the two directions form a dialectic that increases the political and social sustainability of the movement as a whole. Conceiving of the individual focused and the systems focused directions as in opposition to one another is, itself, a mistake.     

Optimizing Messaging to Reduce Red Meat Consumption

Red meat production has a range of negative environmental impacts. We sought to characterize the motivations, environmental attitudes and demographics of red meat-eaters, and examine the effect of message framing in reducing future meat consumption. Canadian adult meat-eaters (593) completed a survey and were randomly assigned to one of six message treatments that presented information on the environmental impacts of meat production using frames representing social norms and/or place identity constructs. Taste and quality were the most important motivators for eating meat, while moral/ethical factors were the least. Forty-nine percent of respondents indicated they would reduce red meat intake after exposure to an information only message, while the social norms frame was more effective than others (χ2). Awareness of the environmental effects increased significantly after messaging for all 13 impacts. These findings should assist communicators with designing more effective messaging aimed at encouraging pro-environmental behaviours associated with meat consumption.     

Estimated Injury Risk for Specific Injuries and Body Regions in Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: Injury risk curves estimate motor vehicle crash (MVC) occupant injury risk from vehicle, crash, and/or occupant factors. Many vehicles are equipped with event data recorders (EDRs) that collect data including the crash speed and restraint status during a MVC. This study's goal was to use regulation-required data elements for EDRs to compute occupant injury risk for (1) specific injuries and (2) specific body regions in frontal MVCs from weighted NASS-CDS data.

Methods: Logistic regression analysis of NASS-CDS single-impact frontal MVCs involving front seat occupants with frontal airbag deployment was used to produce 23 risk curves for specific injuries and 17 risk curves for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ to 5+ body region injuries. Risk curves were produced for the following body regions: head and thorax (AIS 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+), face (AIS 2+), abdomen, spine, upper extremity, and lower extremity (AIS 2+, 3+). Injury risk with 95% confidence intervals was estimated for 15–105 km/h longitudinal delta-Vs and belt status was adjusted for as a covariate.

Results: Overall, belted occupants had lower estimated risks compared to unbelted occupants and the risk of injury increased as longitudinal delta-V increased. Belt status was a significant predictor for 13 specific injuries and all body region injuries with the exception of AIS 2+ and 3+ spine injuries. Specific injuries and body region injuries that occurred more frequently in NASS-CDS also tended to carry higher risks when evaluated at a 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V. In the belted population, injury risks that ranked in the top 33% included 4 upper extremity fractures (ulna, radius, clavicle, carpus/metacarpus), 2 lower extremity fractures (fibula, metatarsal/tarsal), and a knee sprain (2.4–4.6% risk). Unbelted injury risks ranked in the top 33% included 4 lower extremity fractures (femur, fibula, metatarsal/tarsal, patella), 2 head injuries with less than one hour or unspecified prior unconsciousness, and a lung contusion (4.6–9.9% risk). The 6 body region curves with the highest risks were for AIS 2+ lower extremity, upper extremity, thorax, and head injury and AIS 3+ lower extremity and thorax injury (15.9–43.8% risk).

Conclusions: These injury risk curves can be implemented into advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) algorithms that utilize vehicle EDR measurements to predict occupant injury immediately following a MVC. Through integration with AACN, these injury risk curves can provide emergency medical services (EMS) and other patient care providers with information on suspected occupant injuries to improve injury detection and patient triage.     

Bacterial degradation of monocrotophos and phyto- and cyto-toxicological evaluation of metabolites

The bacterium Serratia marsescens strain JAS16 was isolated from agricultural soil which had prior exposure to monocrotophos for three years. The strain JAS16 tolerated up to 1200 mg L^–1 monocrotophos and degraded the insecticide (1000 mg L^–1) at a degradation rate constant of 136 d^?1 (DT₅₀ = 3.7 d). In soil, the degradation rate constant was 105 d^?1 (DT₅₀ = 4.8 d). A schematic pathway is being proposed from the degraded products derived from gas chromatography--mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The phytotoxicity of degradation products to Vigna radiata, Vigna unguiculata, and Macrotyloma uniflorum and the genotoxicity to Allium cepa roots were found to be low. A cost-effective powder-based formulation was achieved with the isolate. The isolate remained viable during the storage and also multiplied with a higher colony forming units (CFU) load g^–1 for over a period of seven weeks of storage.     

Molecular docking: A potential tool to aid ecotoxicity testing in environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals

A cocktail of human pharmaceuticals pollute aquatic environments and there is considerable scientific uncertainty about the effects that this may have on aquatic organisms. Human drug target proteins can be highly conserved in non target species suggesting that similar modes of action (MoA) may occur. The aim of this work was to explore whether molecular docking offers a potential tool to predict the effects of pharmaceutical compounds on non target organisms. Three highly prescribed drugs, diclofenac, ibuprofen and levonorgestrel which regularly pollute freshwater environments were used as examples. Their primary drug targets are cyclooxygenase 2 (COX2) and progesterone receptor (PR). Molecular docking experiments were performed using these drugs and their primary drug target homologues for Danio rerio, Salmo salar, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Xenopus tropicalis, Xenopus laevis and Daphnia pulex. The results show that fish and frog COX2 enzymes are likely to bind diclofenac and ibuprofen in the same way as humans but that D. pulex would not. Binding will probably lead to inhibition of COX function and reduced prostaglandin production. Levonorgestrel was found to bind in the same binding pocket of the progesterone receptor in frogs and fish as the human form. This suggests implications for the fecundity of fish and frogs which are exposed to levonorgestrel. Chronic ecotoxicological effects of these drugs reported in the literature support these findings. Molecular docking may provide a valuable tool for ecotoxicity tests by guiding selection of test species and incorporating the MoA of drugs for relevant chronic test end points in environmental risk assessments.     

Treatment of odor by a seashell biofilter at a wastewater treatment plant

Biofilters are becoming an increasingly popular treatment device for odors and other volatiles found at wastewater treatment plants. A seashell media based biofilter was installed in April 2011 at Lake Wildwood Wastewater Treatment Plant located in Penn Valley, California. It was sampled seasonally to examine its ability to treat odorous compounds found in the air above the anaerobic equalization basin at the front end of the plant and to examine the properties of the biofilter and its recirculating water system. The odor profile method sensory panels found mainly sulfide odors (rotten eggs and rotten vegetable) and some fecal odors. This proved to be a useful guidance tool for selecting the required types of chemical sampling. The predominant odorous compounds found were hydrogen sulfide, methyl mercaptan and dimethyl sulfide. These compounds were effectively removed by the biofilter at greater than 99% removal efficiency therein reducing the chemical concentrations to below their odor thresholds. Aldehydes found in the biofilter were below odor thresholds but served as indicators of biological activity. Gas chromatography with mass spectrometry and gas chromatography with sensory detection showed the presence of dimethyl disulfide and dimethyl trisulfide as well, but barely above their respective odor thresholds. The neutrality of the pH of the recirculating water was variable depending on conditions in the biofilter, but a local neutral pH was found in the shells themselves. Other measurements of the recirculating water indicated that the majority of the bio-activity takes place in the first stage of the biofilter. All measurements performed suggest that this seashell biofilter is successful at removing odors found at Lake Wildwood. This study is an initial examination into the mechanism of the removal of odorous compounds in a seashell biofilter.

Implications:?This paper presents a thorough examination of a seashell media biofilter, a sustainable treatment technology used to remove reduced sulfide compounds. The durable performance of the seashell biofilter ensures that odors will be adequately controlled, preventing odor nuisance to surrounding residences, which is an emerging problem faced by waste management facilities. The odor profile method technique used in this study can be applied in many situations by waste management facilities and regulatory air management organizations for source tracking in relation to prevention and management of odor complaints, respectively.