Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Climate change adaptation strategies for transportation infrastructure in Prince George,Canada

Transport infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts as it is designed for long operational lives, and both episodic and seasonal conditions contribute to deterioration, disruption and unsafe incidents. There are some examples of adaptation in transportation design, but many communities do not have the capacity to incorporate climate change considerations into infrastructure planning and management. Researchers worked closely with the City of Prince George, in Central British Columbia, Canada, to build on existing work and explore how the City could plan, design, and maintain roads and other structures to account for climate change. A local steering committee was formed, and created and evaluated 23 potential research topics. Two focus areas were selected for further investigation and explored during a workshop with practitioners, researchers, consultants and other representatives. The workshop precipitated an investigation of projected impacts of climate change on road maintenance and road safety, and plans to explore alternative paving techniques. Outcomes of the case study provide insights regarding climate change and local transportation infrastructure, including: how researchers can engage with local experts to explore adaptation; issues local governments perceive as important; and barriers communities face as they attempt to address vulnerabilities.     

Unravelling the association between the impact of natural hazards and household poverty: evidence from the Indian Sundarban delta

Coastal regions have long been settled by humans due to their abundant resources for livelihoods, including agriculture, transportation, and rich biodiversity. However, natural and anthropogenic factors, such as climate change and sea-level rise, and land subsidence, population pressure, developmental activities, pose threats to coastal sustainability. Natural hazards, such as fluvial or coastal floods, impact poorer and more vulnerable communities greater than more affluent communities. Quantitative assessments of how natural hazards affect vulnerable communities in deltaic regions are still limited, hampering the design of effective management strategies to increase household and community resilience. Drawing from Driving Forces–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR), we quantify the associations between household poverty and the likelihood of material and human loss following a natural hazard using new survey data from 783 households within Indian Sundarban Delta community. The results suggest that the poorest households are significantly more likely to endure material and human losses following a natural hazard and repeated losses of livelihood make them more vulnerable to future risk. The results further suggest that salinization, tidal surge, erosion, and household location are also significant predictors of economic and human losses. Given the current and projected impact of climate change and importance of delta regions as the world’s food baskets, poverty reduction and increase societal resilience should be a primary pathway to strengthen the resilience of the poorest populations inhabiting deltas.     

The Supreme Court,the commerce clause,and natural resources

The Supreme Court's interpretation of the commerce clause controls the balance of power between state and federal governments in the United States. An understanding of the relationship between the different government levels is essential for resource managers concerned with resource and environmental issues. This study examines selected Supreme Court decisions between 1976 and 1988 to answer three questions raised by the commerce clause: (1) Is the regulated item an article of commerce? (2) Do state laws burden interstate commerce? (3) Is federal commerce regulation limited? The balance of power among the justices and the commerce clause theories affecting the federal role in resource management are also examined. Since ratification of the Constitution, the Supreme Court has continuously increased federal power, but states have power to act independently as long as contradictory federal laws do not exist and state law does not impermissively affect commerce. If Congress regulates an individual's use of resources, their power is unquestioned. Future Court decisions will not significantly reduce the federal role in resource management even if the Court's membership changes. Even the supporters of states' rights on the Court realize increased federal power is a necessary part of the country's evolution. The purpose of the commerce clause is to create a national economic unit with free location principles. The Court supports this purpose today and will in the future.     

全球鱼类消费

尽管继续有科学不确定性，但表明当前捕捞实践不可持续的证据与日俱增.在国家层次和国际层次上，人们越来越认真地对待关于过度捕捞及其对穷国食品保障的潜在威胁的告诫.近年来已经看到了一波改善渔业管理的协议.然而，无论在当地社区和传统可能处于危急之中的富国，还是在鱼类对于食品供应也具有根本重要性而且捕捞是沿海地区少数几种生活来源之一的穷国，对减少世界捕捞船队的规模都有强大阻力.     

Factors diminishing the effectiveness of phosphorus loading from municipal effluent: critical information for TMDL analyses

Factors that diminish the effectiveness of phosphorus inputs from a municipal wastewater treatment facility (Metro) in contributing to phosphorus levels and its availability to support algae growth in a culturally eutrophic urban lake (Onondaga Lake, NY) were characterized and quantified. These factors included the bioavailability and settling characteristics of particulate phosphorus from this effluent, the dominant form (70%) of phosphorus in this input, and the plunging of the discharge to stratified layers in the lake. Supporting studies included: (1) chemical and morphometric characterization of the phosphorus-enriched particles of this effluent, compared to particle populations of the tributaries and lake, with an individual particle analysis technique; (2) conduct of algal bioavailability assays of the particulate phosphorus of the effluent; (3) conduct of multiple size class settling velocity measurements on effluent particles; and (4) determinations of the propensity of the discharge to plunge, and documentation of plunging through three-dimensional monitoring of a tracer adjoining the outfall. All of these diminishing effects were found to be operative for the Metro effluent in Onondaga Lake and will be integrated into a forthcoming phosphorus "total maximum daily load" analysis for the lake, through appropriate representation in a supporting mechanistic water quality model. The particulate phosphorus in the effluent was associated entirely with Fe-rich particles formed in the phosphorus treatment process. These particles did not contribute to concentrations in pelagic portions of the lake, due to local deposition associated with their large size. Moreover, this particulate phosphorus was found to be nearly entirely unavailable to support algae growth. While substantial differences are to be expected for various inputs, the effective loading concept and the approaches adopted here to assess the diminishing factors are broadly applicable.     

Resolution and Analysis of Spatial Variations and Patterns in an Urban Lake with Rapid Profiling Instrumentation

Rapid response vertical profiling instrumentation was used to document spatial variability and patterns in a small urban lake, Onondaga Lake, associated with multiple drivers. Paired profiles of temperature, specific conductance (SC), turbidity (T_n), fluorometric chlorophyll a (Chl_f), and nitrate nitrogen (NO₃^?) were collected at >30 fixed locations (a “gridding”) weekly, over the spring to fall interval of several years. These gridding data are analyzed (1) to characterize phytoplankton (Chl_f) patchiness in the lake's upper waters, (2) to establish the representativeness of a single long‐term site for monitoring lake‐wide conditions, and (3) to resolve spatial patterns of multiple tracers imparted by buoyancy effects of inflows. Multiple buoyancy signatures were resolved, including overflows from less dense inflows, and interflows to metalimnetic depths and underflows to the bottom from the plunging of more dense inputs. Three different metrics had utility as tracers in depicting the buoyancy signatures as follows: (1) SC, for salinity‐enriched tributaries and the more dilute river that receives the lake's outflow, (2) T_n, for the tributaries during runoff events, and (3) NO₃^?, for the effluent of a domestic waste treatment facility and from the addition of NO₃^? solution to control methyl mercury. The plunging inflow phenomenon, which frequently prevailed, has important management implications.     

Modeling Flow Through a One-Dimensional Multi-Layered Soil Profile Using the Method of Lines

The vertical flow of water through horizontal layers of soil is considered using the Method of Lines. Continuity of mass principles are used to develop the interface boundary conditions, by introducing fictitious points at the interface, and the boundary conditions are handled using explicit and iterative approximations. Both the pressure based, and the water content based forms of Richards' equation are solved using the Method of Lines. The solutions obtained are compared with some particular analytic solutions obtained from the literature, and the results show that good accuracy can be achieved. It is also shown that the water content model can handle a large discontinuity at the interface when compared against the analytical solution. This result is also confirmed against a numerical example from the literature, and was effective for relatively dry initial conditions.     

Preparing future engineers for challenges of the 21st century: Sustainable engineering

The field of engineering is changing rapidly as the growing global population puts added demands on the earth's resources: engineering decisions must now account for limitations in materials and energy as well as the need to reduce discharges of wastes. This means educators must revise courses and curricula so engineering graduates are prepared for the new challenges as practicing engineers. The Center for Sustainable Engineering has been established to help faculty members accommodate such changes through workshops and new educational materials, including a free access website with peer-reviewed materials.