An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and the Accelerated Introduction of Advanced Energy Technologies - An Application of MiniCAM 1.0

We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO₂ and CH₄ in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.     

The continuing conundrum of the LEA proteins

Research into late embryogenesis abundant (LEA) proteins has been ongoing for more than 20 years but, although there is a strong association of LEA proteins with abiotic stress tolerance particularly dehydration and cold stress, for most of that time, their function has been entirely obscure. After their initial discovery in plant seeds, three major groups (numbered 1, 2 and 3) of LEA proteins have been described in a range of different plants and plant tissues. Homologues of groups 1 and 3 proteins have also been found in bacteria and in certain invertebrates. In this review, we present some new data, survey the biochemistry, biophysics and bioinformatics of the LEA proteins and highlight several possible functions. These include roles as antioxidants and as membrane and protein stabilisers during water stress, either by direct interaction or by acting as molecular shields. Along with other hydrophilic proteins and compatible solutes, LEA proteins might also serve as “space fillers” to prevent cellular collapse at low water activities. This multifunctional capacity of the LEA proteins is probably attributable in part to their structural plasticity, as they are largely lacking in secondary structure in the fully hydrated state, but can become more folded during water stress and/or through association with membrane surfaces. The challenge now facing researchers investigating these enigmatic proteins is to make sense of the various in vitro defined functions in the living cell: Are the LEA proteins truly multi-talented, or are they still just misunderstood?     

Estimating carbon in savanna ecosystems: rational distribution of effort

Minimising the cost of repeatedly estimating C (C) stocks is crucial to the financial viability of projects that seek to sell C credits. Depending on the price of C, this may imply less or more sampling effort than would be applied for science objectives. In systems with heterogeneous C pools, such as savannas, this translates into a variable-effort sampling strategy that maximises the marginal additional C that can be claimed per incremental unit of effort expended. Analysis of a savanna in north-eastern South Africa indicates relatively modest returns per hectare due to the small C quantities and low sequestration rates. Under these conditions, areas in excess of 1,000 ha and infrequent sampling frequencies of 5–10 years are required to make such projects financially viable. For such projects the sample variance, number of samples, cost per sample and establishment costs have negligible impacts on financial viability. It was also found that the soil-C pool contributes up to three times the net returns of the aboveground C pool and provides a strong argument to monitor soil C for certification and market trading. The financial viability estimates, however, do not include the management or opportunity costs incurred in changing the land use. The economies of scale identified in this study combined with the massive area covered by savannas indicate that these additional costs can be covered. Further research is recommended to quantify these costs and interrogate the feasibility of large scale (in excess of 10,000 ha) C-sink projects in savanna systems.     

Large-scale utilization of biomass energy and carbon dioxide capture and storage in the transport and electricity sectors under stringent CO2 concentration limit scenarios

Large-scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems are a potentially large contributor to meeting global climate policy targets by the end of the century. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. A key aspect of the research presented here is that the costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are explicitly incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120–160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced globally by midcentury and 200–250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the majority source, along with growing utilization of waste-to-energy. The ability to draw on a diverse set of biomass-based feedstocks helps to reduce the pressure for drastic large-scale changes in land use and the attendant environmental, ecological, and economic consequences those changes would unleash. In terms of the conversion of bioenergy feedstocks into value added energy, this paper demonstrates that biomass is and will continue to be used to generate electricity as well as liquid transportation fuels. A particular focus of this paper is to show how climate policies and technology assumptions – especially the availability of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies – affect the decisions made about where the biomass is used in the energy system. The potential for net-negative electric sector emissions through the use of CCS with biomass feedstocks provides an attractive part of the solution for meeting stringent emissions constraints; we find that at carbon prices above $150/tCO₂, over 90% of biomass in the energy system is used in combination with CCS. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, it is a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO₂ from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. CCS is also used heavily with other fuels such as coal and natural gas, and by 2095 a total of 1530 GtCO₂ has been stored in deep geologic reservoirs. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer–Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels as two representative conversion processes and shows that both technologies may be important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics.     

A global assessment of chromium pollution using sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) as an indicator species

Chromium (Cr) is a well-known human carcinogen and a potential reproductive toxicant, but its contribution to ocean pollution is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to provide a global baseline for Cr as a marine pollutant using the sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) as an indicator species. Biopsies were collected from free-ranging whales around the globe during the voyage of the research vessel The Odyssey. Total Cr levels were measured in 361 sperm whales collected from 16 regions around the globe detectable levels ranged from 0.9 to 122.6 μg Cr g tissue⁻¹ with a global mean of 8.8 ± 0.9 μg g⁻¹. Two whales had undetectable levels. The highest levels were found in sperm whales sampled in the waters near the Islands of Kiribati in the Pacific (mean = 44.3 ± 14.4) and the Seychelles in the Indian Ocean (mean = 19.5 ± 5.4 μg g⁻¹). The lowest mean levels were found in whales near the Canary Islands (mean = 3.7 ± 0.8 μg g⁻¹) and off of the coast of Sri Lanka (mean = 3.3 ± 0.4 μg g⁻¹). The global mean Cr level in whale skin was 28-times higher than mean Cr skin levels in humans without occupational exposure. The whale levels were more similar to levels only observed previously in human lung tissue from workers who died of Cr-induced lung cancer. We conclude that Cr pollution in the marine environment is significant and that further study is urgently needed.     

Controlled release, blind test of DNAPL remediation by ethanol flushing

A dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source zone was established within a sheet-pile isolated cell through a controlled release of perchloroethylene (PCE) to evaluate DNAPL remediation by in-situ cosolvent flushing. Ethanol was used as the cosolvent, and the main remedial mechanism was enhanced dissolution based on the phase behavior of the water-ethanol-PCE system. Based on the knowledge of the actual PCE volume introduced into the cell, it was estimated that 83 L of PCE were present at the start of the test. Over a 40-day period, 64% of the PCE was removed by flushing the cell with an alcohol solution of approximately 70% ethanol and 30% water. High removal efficiencies at the end of the test indicated that more PCE could have been removed had it been possible to continue the demonstration. The ethanol solution extracted from the cell was recycled during the test using activated carbon and air stripping treatment. Both of these treatment processes were successful in removing PCE for recycling purposes, with minimal impact on the ethanol content in the treated fluids. Results from pre- and post-flushing partitioning tracer tests overestimated the treatment performance. However, both of these tracer tests missed significant amounts of the PCE present, likely due to inaccessibility of the PCE. The tracer results suggest that some PCE was inaccessible to the ethanol solution which led to the inefficient PCE removal rates observed. The flux-averaged aqueous PCE concentrations measured in the post-flushing tracer test were reduced by a factor of 3 to 4 in the extraction wells that showed the highest PCE removal compared to those concentrations in the pre-flushing tracer test.     

Carbon Monitoring Costs and their Effect on Incentives to Sequester Carbon through Forestry

Technically, forestry projects have thepotential to contribute significantly tothe mitigation of global warming, but manysuch projects may not be economicallyattractive at current estimates of carbon(C) prices. Forest C is, in a sense, a newcommodity that must be measured toacceptable standards for the commodity toexist. This will require that credible Cmeasuring and monitoring procedures be inplace. The amount of sequestered C that canbe claimed by a project is normallyestimated based on sampling a number ofsmall plots, and the precision of thisestimate depends on the number of plotssampled and on the spatial variability ofthe site. Measuring C can be expensive andhence it is important to select anefficient C-monitoring strategy to makeprojects competitive in the C market. Thispaper presents a method to determinewhether a forestry project will benefitfrom C trading, and to find the optimalmanagement strategy in terms of forestcycle length and C-monitoring strategyA model of an Acacia mangiumplantation in southern Sumatra, Indonesiais used to show that forestry projects canbe economically attractive under a range ofconditions, provided that the project islarge enough to absorb fixed costs.Modeling results indicate that between 15and 38 Mg of Certified Emission Reductions(CERs) per hectare can be captured by thesimulated plantation under optimalmanagement, with optimality defined asmaximizing the present value of profitsobtained from timber and C. The optimalcycle length ranged from 12 to 16 years andthe optimal number of sample plots rangedfrom 0 to 30. Costs of C monitoring (inpresent-value terms) were estimated to bebetween 0.45 (Mg C)^-1 to 2.11 (MgC)^-1 depending on the spatialvariability of biomass, the variable costsof C monitoring and the discount rate.     

Persistent organic pollutants in Alaskan ringed seal (Phoca hispida) and walrus (Odobenus rosmarus) blubber

Since 1987, the Alaska Marine Mammal Tissue Archival Project (AMMTAP) has collected tissues from 18 marine mammal species. Specimens are archived in the National Institute of Standards and Technology's National Biomonitoring Specimen Bank (NIST-NBSB). AMMTAP has collected blubber, liver and/or kidney specimens from a number of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) from the areas near Nome and Barrow, Alaska and walruses (Odobenus rosmarus) from several locations in the Bering Sea. Thirty-three ringed seal and 15 walrus blubber samples from the NIST-NBSB were analyzed for persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The compounds determined included PCBs (28 congeners or congener groups), DDT and related compounds, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), hexachlorocyclohexane isomers (HCHs), chlordanes, dieldrin, and mirex. POP concentrations in ringed seal blubber were significantly higher in Barrow than in Nome when statistically accounting for the interaction of age and gender; HCB, however, was not statistically different between the two locations. Unlike males, POP concentrations and age were not significantly correlated in females probably as a result of lactational loss. POP concentrations in walrus blubber were lower than in ringed seal blubber for SigmaPCBs, chlordanes, and HCHs, but higher for dieldrin and mirex. POP concentrations in ringed seals and walrus from Alaska provide further evidence that the western Arctic tends to have lower or similar POP concentrations compared to the eastern Canadian Arctic.