Researching Under Fire: Issues for Consideration When Collecting Data and Information in War Circumstances, with Specific Reference to Relief and Reconstruction Projects

The post-Cold War era has witnessed an increased number of conflicts and higher levels of international intervention by the humanitarian community and the military. Those who undertake to research the actions of relief and development agencies acting in these wars must act within new parameters that require a flexible, innovative and reflective approach. Not much is known about data collection in war. The most relevant publications come from the field of development studies. This paper is a beginning in a much-needed discourse on researching under fire; it is offered not as a definitive work, but as a starting-point for discussion.     

Absence of Blood Parasites in Indigenous and Introduced Birds from the Cook Islands, South Pacific

Abstract: We found no protozoan parasites in 79 blood smears of birds from the Cook Islands, South Pacific. Our sample consisted of 55 smears from nine indigenous species of land and aquatic birds, and 24 smears from one introduced land bird The absence or scarcity of avian hematozoa in the Cook Islands is probably due to a very low prevalence of infection among introduced and naturally colonizing species of birds, rather than a scarcity of insect vectors. On one hand, the apparent absence or extreme scarcity of avian hematozoa, particularly the malaria-causing Plasmodium spp., is fortunate from a conservation standpoint, considering the devastating impact that Plasmodium from human-introduced mosquitoes and birds has had on the indigenous avifauna of Hawaii during the past century. On the other hand, our results suggest that the indigenous birds of the Cook Islands, much like those of Hawaii, would have little natural resistance to avian malaria should it be introduced. Thus precautions should be taken to prohibit the introduction of potentially infected nonnative birds or mosquitoes in the Cook Islands and elsewhere in Polynesia     

Pesticide Modelling for a Small Catchment Using SWAT-2000

Pesticides in stream flow from the 142 ha Colworth catchment in Bedfordshire, UK were monitored from October 1999 to December 2000. About 47% of the catchment is tile-drained and different pesticides and cropping patterns have recently been evaluated in terms of their effect on nutrient and pesticide losses to the stream. The data from Colworth were used to test soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) 2000 predictions of pesticide concentrations at the catchment outlet. A sound model set-up to carry out pesticide modelling was created by means of hydrological modelling with proper simulation of crop growth and evapotranspiration. The pesticides terbuthylazine, terbutryn, cyanazine and bentazone were modelled. There was close agreement between SWAT-predicted pesticide concentration values and observations. Scenario trials were conducted to explore management options for reducing pesticide loads arriving at the catchment outlet. The results obtained indicate that SWAT can be used as a tool to understand pesticide behavior at the catchment scale.     

From Relief to Development: The Long-term Effects of 'Temporary' Accommodation on Refugees and Displaced Persons in the Republic of Croatia

The increasing scale of international intervention in conflict is generating new pressures on the humanitarian community. Increased expenditure on emergency relief, static levels of overseas development aid and subsequent lack of funds for development are dictating that agencies design relief projects that positively effect developmental reconstruction.
This paper examines the provision of shelter for refugees and displaced persons in the Republic of Croatia and identifies ways in which it has encouraged and discouraged sustainable reconstruction. It argues that to promote lasting reconstruction, programmes must focus on saving livelihoods as well as lives, thus minimising the long-term psychological and physical impacts of aid on refugees, displaced persons and host communities.     

Spatially Explicit Power Analyses for Occupancy‐Based Monitoring of Wolverine in the U.S. Rocky Mountains

Conservation scientists and resource managers often have to design monitoring programs for species that are rare or patchily distributed across large landscapes. Such programs are frequently expensive and seldom can be conducted by one entity. It is essential that a prospective power analysis be undertaken to ensure stated monitoring goals are feasible. We developed a spatially based simulation program that accounts for natural history, habitat use, and sampling scheme to investigate the power of monitoring protocols to detect trends in population abundance over time with occupancy‐based methods. We analyzed monitoring schemes with different sampling efforts for wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations in 2 areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains. The relation between occupancy and abundance was nonlinear and depended on landscape, population size, and movement parameters. With current estimates for population size and detection probability in the northern U.S. Rockies, most sampling schemes were only able to detect large declines in abundance in the simulations (i.e., 50% decline over 10 years). For small populations reestablishing in the Southern Rockies, occupancy‐based methods had enough power to detect population trends only when populations were increasing dramatically (e.g., doubling or tripling in 10 years), regardless of sampling effort. In general, increasing the number of cells sampled or the per‐visit detection probability had a much greater effect on power than the number of visits conducted during a survey. Although our results are specific to wolverines, this approach could easily be adapted to other territorial species. Poder de Análisis Espacialmente Explícito para el Monitoreo Basado en Ocupación del Glotón (Gulo gulo) en las Montañas Rocallosas de Estados Unidos     

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas