Overestimation of self-reported driving exposure: Results from the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study

Objectives: The accuracy of self-reported driving exposure has questioned the validity of using self-reported mileage to inform research questions. Studies examining the accuracy of self-reported driving exposure compared to objective measures find low validity, with drivers overestimating and underestimating driving distance. The aims of the current study were to (1) examine the discrepancy between self-reported annual mileage and driving exposure the following year and (2) investigate whether these differences depended on age and annual mileage.

Methods: Two estimates of drivers’ self-reported annual mileage collected during vehicle installation (obtained via prestudy questionnaires) and approximated annual mileage driven (based upon Global Positioning System data) were acquired from 3,323 participants who participated in the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study.

Results: A Wilcoxon signed rank test showed that there was a significant difference between self-reported and annual driving exposure during participation in SHRP 2, with the majority of self-reported responses overestimating annual mileage the following year, irrespective of whether an ordinal or ratio variable was examined. Over 15% of participants provided self-reported responses with over 100% deviation, which were exclusive to participants underestimating annual mileage. Further, deviations in reporting differed between participants who had low, medium, and high exposure, as well as between participants in different age groups.

Conclusions: These findings indicate that although self-reported annual mileage is heavily relied on for research, such estimates of driving distance may be an overestimate of current or future mileage and can influence the validity of prior research that has utilized estimates of driving exposure.     

Nest-building by crested tit Parus cristatus males: an analysis of costs and benefits

In a population of crested tits in Belgium, one out of three breeding males participated in nest-building. Since variation in the amount of nest-building among 11 building males was low, analysis of male nest-building allowed a logistic regression design. The probability of building increased with male condition and for late nests. The effect of male condition decreased with date, and date was the only factor predicting nest-building for repeat broods. The effect of male condition on nest-building suggests that building entails important costs for males. Based on correlative data, we argue that building by males shortens the interval between the start of nest-building and the onset of egg-laying by about 5 days. Since clutch size, incubation and nestling time did not differ between early and late broods, male nest-building apparently affects fledging date. Since early fledgers (early dispersers) are more likely to settle in future winter flocks, building behaviour by crested tit males should be favoured by natural selection. So far, male nest-building in hole-breeding birds might have been overlooked due to the widespread use of artificial nest-boxes in behavioural studies.     

AMD铁絮体改性生物炭对重金属吸附机理研究 ——以Pb(II)为例

以酸性矿山废水生成的铁絮体和秸秆生物炭为原料,采用化学改性和紫外辐射联用技术制备改性生物炭,并通过正交试验确定最佳改性条件,同时利用FTIR、SEM和BET等方法对吸附材料的形貌特征、孔隙结构及其表面化学性质进行表征.结果表明,通过改性使吸附材料比表面积增大,吸附位点增多,在25℃、pH为7时,吸附材料改性后比表面积为295.71 m²·g^-1,对Pb（II）的拟合吸附量可达278 mg·g^-1.改性材料对Pb（II）的吸附过程符合Langmuir吸附等温线模型和准二级动力学模型,主要为单分子层吸附,受化学吸附控制.     

Investigation of chlorinated phenols sorption mechanisms on different layers of the Danube alluvial sediment

The characteristics of the Danube river alluvial sediment are of great importance in assessing the risk for transport of pollutants to drinking water sources. Characterization of the sediment column layers has shown that the alluvial sediment, sampled near the city of Novi Sad, is a mesoporous sandy material with certain differences in the properties of individual layers. In order to investigate the sorption mechanisms of four chlorinated phenols (CPs) on the alluvial deposit, static sorption experiments were performed at pH 4, 7 and 10. The results of sorption experiments, confirmed by principal components analysis sugest different mechanisms govern the sorption process at different pH conditions. This can be attributed to the molecular characteristics of CPs, geosorbent properties and to variations in the surface charge of the sorbent at different pH conditions.     

京津冀西北典型区域地下水位时空演变及驱动因素

京津冀西北地区是北京、天津重要的水源涵养区和生态屏障,也是“京津冀协同发展”战略重要的支撑区域。为揭示京津冀西北地区地下水位时空演变规律及其驱动因素,以张家口地区为研究区域,选取1981—2015年56个地下水位观测井连续观测数据、水文地质相关资料、气象数据、地下水资源开采数据和社会经济数据,对研究区内坝上高原、柴宣盆地、涿怀盆地和蔚阳盆地四个地貌单元地下水位时空演变规律和驱动因素进行分析。结果表明：张家口地区四个地貌单元及下辖各区县地下水位呈整体下降趋势,且下降速率逐步加快。35年间坝上高原水位降幅3.59 m<蔚阳盆地水位降幅3.6 m<涿怀盆地水位降幅7.17 m<柴宣盆地水位降幅20.41 m。张家口地区四个地貌单元地下水位动态变化与降雨量、蒸发量、气温等自然因素相关性较差,但与第一产业产值、常用耕地面积、有效灌溉面积、粮食总产量、蔬菜总产量、猪牛羊肉总产量、第二产业产值、第三产业产值和年末总人口等社会经济因素存在显著的相关性。在主成分分析中四个地貌单元前两个主成分的累计方差贡献率均>80%,其中第一个主成分主要为蔬菜总产量、猪牛羊肉总产量、年末总人口和第一、第二、第三产业产值等社会经济因素,不同地貌单元均可解释66%以上,表明社会经济因素是造成张家口地区地下水位持续下降的主要驱动因素。研究成果可为该地区未来社会经济的可持续发展和区域水资源的合理利用、调配以及京津冀西北地区水源涵养和生态功能保持提供理论依据。     

GHG emission reductions and costs to achieve Kyoto target

Emission projection and marginal abatement cost curves (MACs) are the central components of any assessment of future carbonmarket, such as CDM (clean development mechanism) potentials, carbon quota price etc. However, they are products of very complex,dynamic systems driven by forces like population growth, economic development, resource endowments, technology progress and so on. The modeling approaches for emission projection and MACs evaluation were summarized, and some major models and their results were compared.Accordingly, reduction and cost requirements to achieve the Kyoto target were estimated. It is concluded that Annex I Parties‘ total reduction requirements range from 503--1304 MtC with USA participation and decrease significantly to 140--612 MtC after USA‘ s withdrawal. Total costs vary from 21--77 BUSD with USA and from 5--36 BUSD without USA if only domestic reduction actions are taken. The costs would sharply reduce while considering the three flexible mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol with domestic actions‘ share in the all mitigation strategies drons to only 0--16%.     

2000年以来黄河流域土地市场化时空格局演变及驱动因素

基于土地市场交易结构的视角,测算2000-2016年黄河流域104个地级以上城市一级土地市场化程度,综合利用Global Moran's I、G^*_i指数空间统计模型对其时空格局演变特征进行分析,运用灰色关联度分析模型探究土地市场化时空格局演变的主要驱动因素。研究发现：2000-2016年,黄河流域土地市场化水平表现出先持续上升后不断下降的阶段性变化特征,呈现了“东高西低”的空间分异格局。黄河流域土地市场化水平整体具有显著的空间自相关性,土地市场化热点区域以下游主要城市为核心,经历了先加速蔓延、后缓步收缩的时空演进历程。黄河流域土地市场化水平的时空格局演变主要由经济发展水平、产业结构升级、固定资产投资、政府财政收支比、外商直接投资以及区位条件等因素共同驱动,但受我国社会经济发展的阶段性影响,各因素在不同年份的影响程度存在显著的差异性。     

海岸带综合管理的区域性特征及其发展机制

在综述国内外海岸带综合管理（ＩＣＺＭ）进展的基础上，以人地关系地域系统为理论基础，论述了ＩＣＺＭ的区域性特征。从地理学看，海岩带是一个开放的复杂的巨系统，有着明确的边界范围，具有可度量性。从管理学看，其模式的多样性反映了区域自然条件和社会条件的差异性，是人地关系双向运动平衡协调的结果，从社会学看，其战略实施先在地方级别上应用，在获得足够的经验或成熟之后，再推广到地区级、省级和国家级的计划中去的空间     

制造抽油机驱动绳工艺探讨

着重介绍了冷挤压技术在制造抽油机驱动绳中的应用方法。同时解决了抽油机驱动绳不能同时受力 ;钢丝绳因加热而产生的局部材料内部组织变化造成驱动绳断裂等关键问题。     

森林植被影响径流形成机制研究进展

径流形成机制研究在水文学领域中具有十分重要的意义,且受到越来越广泛的重视。水文环境以及水文通量的空间异质性和时间变化性导致了水文过程的尺度依赖性和非线性特征,没有对水文过程较为清晰的认识,就不能将某一地区某一流域森林植被变化水文生态效应的研究结果简单地外推到其他地区和其他流域。开发基于物理过程分布式参数水文模型可以为认识森林植被变化的生态学后效和客观评价森林植被水文生态效益提供可行的工具。但是要实现这一目标,研究森林植被影响径流形成机制是问题的核心所在。另一方面,认识森林影响径流形成机制有助于研究水文学中的尺度问题。研究森林植被影响径流形成机制的主要方法包括水文测验、同位素示踪和动力水文学计算等,研究的空间尺度则为坡面与流域相接合。从已有的研究成果来看,森林植被影响径流形成机制可以概括为:①森林流域径流形成为变动源区产流机制;②森林流域径流形成主要受饱和地表径流、亚表层径流和地下径流的控制;③森林流域径流形成机制是相互作用和相互转化的;④优先流在森林流域径流形成中起到了至关重要的作用。