Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

Isotope tracing of submarine groundwater discharge offshore Ubatuba, Brazil: results of the IAEA–UNESCO SGD project

Results of groundwater and seawater analyses for radioactive (³H, ²²²Rn, ²²³Ra, ²²⁴Ra, ²²⁶Ra, and ²²⁸Ra) and stable (D and ¹⁸O) isotopes are presented together with in situ spatial mapping and time series ²²²Rn measurements in seawater, direct seepage measurements using manual and automated seepage meters, pore water investigations using different tracers and piezometric techniques, and geoelectric surveys probing the coast. This study represents first time that such a new complex arsenal of radioactive and non-radioactive tracer techniques and geophysical methods have been used for simultaneous submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) investigations. Large fluctuations of SGD fluxes were observed at sites situated only a few meters apart (from 0 cm d⁻¹ to 360 cm d⁻¹; the unit represents cm³/cm²/day), as well as during a few hours (from 0 cm d⁻¹ to 110 cm d⁻¹), strongly depending on the tidal fluctuations. The average SGD flux estimated from continuous ²²²Rn measurements is 17 ± 10 cm d⁻¹. Integrated coastal SGD flux estimated for the Ubatuba coast using radium isotopes is about 7 × 10³ m³ d⁻¹ per km of the coast. The isotopic composition (δD and δ¹⁸O) of submarine waters was characterised by significant variability and heavy isotope enrichment, indicating that the contribution of groundwater in submarine waters varied from a small percentage to 20%. However, this contribution with increasing offshore distance became negligible. Automated seepage meters and time series measurements of ²²²Rn activity concentration showed a negative correlation between the SGD rates and tidal stage. This is likely caused by sea level changes as tidal effects induce variations of hydraulic gradients. The geoelectric probing and piezometric measurements contributed to better understanding of the spatial distribution of different water masses present along the coast. The radium isotope data showed scattered distributions with offshore distance, which imply that seawater in a complex coast with many small bays and islands was influenced by local currents and groundwater/seawater mixing. This has also been confirmed by a relatively short residence time of 1–2 weeks for water within 25 km offshore, as obtained by short-lived radium isotopes. The irregular distribution of SGD seen at Ubatuba is a characteristic of fractured rock aquifers, fed by coastal groundwater and recirculated seawater with small admixtures of groundwater, which is of potential environmental concern and has implications on the management of freshwater resources in the region.     

Comparison of models of simazine transport and fate in the subsurface environment in a citrus farm

Contamination of groundwater by agrochemicals is now widely recognized as an extremely important environmental problem. Modern agricultural practices involve the combined use of irrigation with the application of large amounts of agrochemicals to maximize crop yield. Due to flood irrigation and natural runoff, agricultural activities might generate soil, surface water and groundwater contamination problems and leaching of pesticides. Modeling of the transport and fate of pesticides, such as simazine, may help understand the long-term potential risk to the subsurface environment. This paper illustrates a comparative study via the use of three different pesticide transport simulation models and the applicability of those models in determining the groundwater vulnerability to pesticides contamination in a citrus orchard located at the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV). The three models used in the study are the pesticide root zone model-3 (PRZM-3), the pesticide analytical model (PESTAN) and integrated pesticide transport modeling (IPTM). The concentration values obtained from all three models are in agreement, and they show a decreasing trend from the surface through the vadose zone. The problem is how to use this information and, specifically, how to combine the testimony of a number of experts into a single useful judgment. With the aid of the fuzzy multiattribute decision making method, PRZM-3 is deemed as the most promising one for such precision farming applications.     

Water resource management in Kabul river basin, eastern Afghanistan

Severe drinking water shortage affects all resident of the Kabul river basin. Two and a half decades of civil war in Afghanistan (it began in late 1978) have resulted in widespread environmental degradation and water resource development throughout the country. The war has already finished and, therefore, water resource management for supplying water is one of the most important tasks for Afghanistan’s government. The Kabul river basin which is the most populated area in the country is located in the eastern part of Afghanistan. This article deals with the water resource properties of the Kabul river basin and also water demand in the important cities of the basin, such as Kabul, the capital and the largest city in the country. Also a few suggestions for providing water for domestic and agriculture purposes in short term, medium time and long term have been discussed.     

Towards a smallholder hydrology for equitable and sustainable water management

Situations of water scarcity challenge sustainability and threaten small users' access to water. In response to this problem, there has been a search for a method of hydrological analysis that can better represent the needs of small water users. While this search is rooted in the debate favouring a more participatory and inclusive allocation of the resource, it also requires a new focus on smallholder hydrology that can confront the gaps and biases found in current hydrological practices in many countries. This article looks at past hydrological practices and also at results of recent studies, highlighting the perspective of smallholder irrigators in surface water planning in Zimbabwe, and groundwater planning in India. These case studies show that wider social forces, not always best science, drive hydrological practices. However, new frameworks focusing on the water user can emerge for more equitable and sustainable water management.     

灰色系统GM（1,1）模型在城市地下水总硬度预测中的应用

应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,对地下水中总硬度的变化作了预测.检验结果表明,该模型精度较高,是一种较好的预测方法.     

Simulating dairy liquid waste management options as a nitrogen source for crops

Large scale dairy operations are common. In many cases the manure is deposited on a paved surface and then removed with a flushing system, after which the solids are separated, the liquid stored in ponds, and eventually the liquid applied on adjacent crop land. Management of liquid manure to maximize the fertilizer value and minimize water quality degradation requires knowledge of the interactive effects of mineralization of organic N (ON) to NH₄⁺, crop uptake of mineral N, and leaching of NO₃⁻ on a temporal basis. The purpose of the research was to use the ENVIRO-GRO model to simulate how the amount of applied N, timing of N application, ON mineralization rates, chemical form of N applied, and irrigation uniformity affected (1) yields of corn (Zea mays) in summer and a forage grass in winter in a Mediterranean climate and (2) the amount of NO₃⁻ leached below the root zone. This management practice is typical for dairies in the San Joaquin Valley of California. The simulations were conducted for a 10-year period. Steady state conditions, whereby an equivalent amount of N applied in the organic form will be mineralized in a given year, are achieved more rapidly for materials with high mineralization rates. Both timing and total quantity of N application are important in affecting crop yield and potential N leaching. Major conclusions from the simulations are as follows. Frequent low applications are preferred to less frequent higher applications. Increasing the amount of N application increased both the crop yield and the amount of NO₃⁻ leached. Increasing irrigation uniformity increased crop yields but had variable effects on the amount of NO₃⁻ leached. A winter forage crop following a summer corn crop effectively reduced the leaching of residual soil N following the corn crop.     

某糠醛厂排放废水及周围地下水的GC/MS测定

某地地下水显淡黄色有异味，为查明被污染原因，我们利用ＧＤＸ－１０２树脂富集，对该处唯一的一家工厂——某糠醛厂排放的废水及其周围地下水同时进行了ＧＣ／ＭＳ测定．以上两种水体中均有呋喃类化合物（包括糠醛）及酚类化合物检出，而远离工厂的上游地下水未发现以上两类化合物，这一结果表明，该地下水区被工厂排放的废水所污染     

新疆百重7井区油田开发对地下水环境的影响分析

新疆百重7井区为新疆百口腺地下水的汇集径流区,是克拉玛依市生尖生产用水水源之一，在此处进行油田开发，使得保护该区地下水环境成为开发工程的重中之重，由新疆百重7井区油田开发对地下水环境的影响分析可知，正常状况下的油田开发对地下水的影响很小，一旦发生事故，则对地下水的影响很大，必须采取适当措施，保护该区丰富的地下水资源。     

葫芦岛市钢屯地区地下水钼污染状况调查

葫芦岛市是中国最重要的钼矿基地。而钼矿主要集中在葫芦岛市连山区钢屯镇。随着钼的大量开采和冶炼,导致大量生产废水外排和偷排,造成附近地区地下水污染,为了弄清该地区污染,为环境管理提供决策依据,我们对该地区的地下水中的钼进行了监测。